Posted on 10/08/2006 12:03:02 AM PDT by MadIvan
The sight of a moustachioed former Marxist revolutionary and American Cold War foe hugging babies and autographing baseball caps as he embraces democracy should bring a frisson of pleasure to the US.
But instead, the fact that the election campaign of the Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega is going so well that he may return to power in Nicaragua next month is causing alarm in Washington.
For although Mr Ortega's old Soviet mentors have gone, his country is once again the focus of a crucial regional power play in Washington's Latin American back yard.
Some 27 years after his Sandinista movement overthrew the corrupt Somoza dynasty dictatorship, and 16 years after he was voted out of office, Mr Ortega is the frontrunner in a splintered field for the presidential election.
His black moustache and wavy hair, though thinning, are familiar, but his uniform for election rallies now is a collarless white shirt and blue jeans instead of the army fatigues that were his trademark in the 1980s.
To the tune of the Beatles' All I am Saying is Give Peace a Chance, the Sandinista campaign song blared out in the capital Managua, calling for jobs and better health and education. Posters and banners proclaim the virtues of peace and reconciliation against soothing backdrops of pink and turquoise.
It is the kind of makeover Peter Mandelson would envy, although the architect of New Labour would doubtless be wary that Mr Ortega's supporters still know him as El Commandante.
Nicaragua has a population of just 5.5 million, no oil or gas reserves and is the second poorest nation in the Western hemisphere, with an annual per capita national income of just $910. Only Haiti's economy is in worse shape.
In the 1980s, its thick jungles and colonial cities were the battleground for influence and ideology between the Kremlin and Washington, as some 30,000 people died in a brutal civil war.
Soviet and Cuban aid and advisers poured into Managua, while President Ronald Reagan backed the anti-Sandinista Contras. Some of his senior aides cooked up an ill-conceived scheme to channel funds to the guerrillas from illegal arms sales to Teheran, in what became the Iran-Contra scandal.
In 2006, America's anxieties are focused on the aggressive aspirations of Hugo Chavez. Awash with petrodollars, Venezuela's authoritarian president is seeking to establish a populist, Left-wing, anti-US alliance in Latin America - and Mr Ortega has made no secret that he would join it.
The US ambassador, Paul Trivelli, has signalled that Washington would review its aid budget for Nicaragua if Mr Ortega wins the election. In what critics have dismissed as a blatant intervention, he also tried, unsuccessfully, to broker an alliance between the two main centre-Right candidates to unite the anti-Ortega majority.
Mr Trivelli insists the US is not pursuing some historical vendetta, but is opposing Mr Ortega because he is an anti-democratic autocrat who has used his Sandinista loyalists to manipulate the judiciary and attempt a "creeping coup" in the National Assembly.
"It's one thing to be truly democratic," he said. "It's another thing to do what the Sandinistas really have done, which is to distort and manipulate democracy for partisan and personal benefit. The fact that (Mr Ortega) has been in charge of the Sandinista movement for 25 years or more gives you a clue about his democratic tendencies."
It is a high-stakes game, as the US risks a backlash against its role. But that is probably balanced by local resentment at interference from the Venezualan capital, Caracas. Mr Chavez recently intervened to arrange a cheap oil deal with a Sandinista-led mayors' association and invited "my friend Daniel" to join him on his weekly TV broadcast, to show his support. There is no doubt that more subsidised gas and oil will flow Nicaragua's way if Mr Ortega wins.
Indeed, the demagogic Venezuelan leader has as much riding on this result as Washington, as he attempts to develop an anti-US bloc with Cuba and Bolivia. Victories for his allies in Ecuador's election next week, and in Nicaragua on November 5, would strengthen him dramatically - two defeats would be a major blow.
"The US operates here like a domestic political player. That does not go down well, but Chavez's behaviour is also perceived as interference and resented," said Carlos Chamorro, a political analyst whose mother, Violeta, defeated Mr Ortega in the 1990 election.
A country of volcanoes, lakes, rainforests and unspoiled beaches, Nicaragua's stunning natural beauty belies its turbulent past. Even Managua has a low-key air for a Latin American capital, partly because swathes of the city have been reclaimed by vegetation since the devastating 1972 earthquake.
The harsh reality of life is all too clear in the city's slums, where dogs scavenge on festering rubbish heaps, barefoot children play in the dirt and people eke out a living as street hawkers, day labourers and seamstresses.
Not surprisingly, it is here that Mr Ortega receives the most enthusiastic reception. Late most afternoons, as the temperature and humidity finally begin to slide from their stifling daytime highs, he leaves the brightly painted walls of his compound in an open-topped, four-wheel-drive vehicle.
The ritual rarely changes. As his car approaches cheering supporters, he stands up and flashes victory signs alongside his constant companion, campaign manager, chief adviser and wife, Rosario Murillo. The architect of her husband's new, softer public image, she is a bundle of energy, with unruly curly black hair and a wardrobe of clothes in the new campaign colours of pink and turquoise.
Cars, vans and trucks join the Sandinista caravan as it winds its way, horns blaring, music blasting, through the streets to the venue for that night's rally. On one evening last week, a hand-picked group of workers and peasants were brought together for a round-table forum with Mr Ortega in front of a flag-waving crowd.
"We are the victims of a savage neo-liberalism," declared a street vendor, spitting out the phrase used by critics here for unfettered capitalism. "But united we will keep fighting this neo-liberal system that lets our children die of hunger."
Another carefully selected contributor declared: "With the same fervour that we picked the cotton and collected the coffee crop in the 1980s, we are fighting for a Sandinista victory now."
El Commandante sat back, nodded and jotted down his thoughts on a yellow writing pad. Meanwhile, other supporters passed his aides scribbled notes petitioning him with their concerns and difficulties, requesting his help and intervention.
Then the microphone was passed to Mr Ortega. His voice was gravelly and surprisingly soft as he kicked off. Then, reverting to the campaign theme of reconciliation and peace, he declared: "War is finished. We will build a new Nicaragua."
He warmed up as he attacked the economic records of the three centre-Right governments that have run the country since he lost in 1990. "They have privatised everything and now we are seeing the consequences," he said. "The Sandinistas never privatised anything and never fired anyone."
This is fertile ground for him, as the country's privatised electricity industry — now owned by a Spanish company — experiences frequent black-outs. "The woes of this country are the fault of savage capitalism," he proclaimed. "We'll end savage capitalism when we win."
He has carefully tailored his messages to his audiences, however, and knows the country can ill-afford a haemorrhage of capital. So he has also been meeting businessmen and foreign investors to assure them that he does not plan mass nationalisation.
Mr Ortega has also successfully wooed many church figures. "My revolutionary inspiration was Christ. Then [independence hero] Sandino, then Marx," he claimed recently. He has also forged the most unlikely alliances – his vice-presidential running mate is Jaime Morales, a Contra leader in whose confiscated mansion he still lives.
Mr Ortega argues that the alliance - with the slogan "United, Nicaragua Triumphs" - shows his commitment to national reconciliation. Opponents say it is proof that he will do anything to regain power.
"Ortega is a pendulum, a pragmatist who puts politics and power above ideology," said Mr Chamorro.
In recent years, Nicaragua has achieved reasonable economic growth rates, averaging four per cent, but little has trickled down to the poor. The startling disparity in incomes goes a long way to explaining why Mr Ortega is not a washed-up Cold War relic.
But for all the campaign rhetoric, it is again Mr Ortega himself who is the main issue in this election. To many Nicaraguans, he is synonymous with the years of hyperinflation, human rights abuses and war, when young men were rounded up and sent to the jungle to fight.
"He talks about jobs, but he'll scare away investment," said Enrique Martes, a graduate in international relations who drives taxis.
"He's got a 1980s mindset and we live in the 21st century. We can't afford to go back to the past."
Although most Nicaraguan voters do not support Daniel Ortega, he may win the election because he faces not one, but two conservative opponents, writes Philip Sherwell.
Eduardo Montealegre, of the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance, is a US-backed ex-foreign minister, while José Rizo, of the Constitutional Liberal Party (PLC), is popular in rural areas.
The leading candidate after the first vote on November 5 may become president, even with only 35 per cent of the vote, if he has a lead of more than five points. If not, the top two go head-to-head in a second vote where, with a clear anti-Sandinista majority, Mr Ortega would be defeated.
However, recent polls give him between 29 and 34 per cent support, with a lead of five to 14 points, while the national electoral body is controlled by Sandinista appointees. The outgoing president is Enrique Bolanos, of the PLC, a businessman Ortega jailed twice when in power.
Regards, Ivan
Ping!
KGB Col. Vladimir Putin is looking forward to giving Ortega some more weapons...
Speaking of child molesters- didn't Ortega molest his own daughter?
Looks like Chavez and Ortega have received the Democratic talking points memo about trying to reclaim religion. Evidently their polling data tells them it's time to glom onto the revival of faith that the Dems went into conniptions over when Bush mentioned it.
Yes, he is an admitted pedophile. Isn't it interesting that it never shows up in the article?
What a Damn Lie!
"Aw, geez, not this S%$# again!"
(Zdravstvutiye!)
;^)
Reposting the pic OCC posted on another thread last night: North: Who lost Nicaragua?. :)
Sens Kerry and Tom Harkin meeting with Ortega on a "fact-finding mission". Shortly after the 2 libs returned to the US to present their facts, Ortega was jetting to Moscow to pledge his allegiance, much to the chagrin of other libs in Congress who publicly said the 2 were duped.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.