Good news for the Graf Campaign.
Ping.
Not so sure it is good news. We can hope they're mistaken, but it sounds like Emmanuel thinks Giffords will win without party money.
Jon Kyl is running the cleanest campaign I've ever seen. His "opponent" on the other hand has been doing nothing but slinging major league mudcakes. Pederson is a braindead, Commie moron. He needs to just quit. Arizonans do not want people like Pederson in Washington.
Screw the NRCC anyway. Graf can get money from the grassroots.
This district is the Socialist stronghold in Arizona. They do have a small outpost in Flagstaff also because of the University for the Sexually Disoriented (USD) being located there. Graf can't get the illegal alien vote so it will probably be tough for him to win. The illegals will vote for the DemocRAT in hopes that the DemocRATS will continue to let them scrounge off welfare in Arizona.
In 2004, the district voted 53 for Bush versus 47 for Kerry.
We can therefore suspect that, on a level playing field, with two equally good campaigners, the Republican would have a slight advantage. This is not a district you'd want to concede to the other side.
I therefore doubt that the Republicans would withdraw from the district because of the one poll we have seen since the primary (or, that the Democrats would likewise withdraw from the district just because the Republicans have withdrawn.)
I think the national Republicans want to see if the advertizing through October 2 will be effective in turning the numbers around in this district (and how resources and needs develop within this district and nationwide), before putting more money into the district.
In other words, if Graf can close the gap at least somewhat, generate some money on his own, so that another half million fropm national will do the trick, and if the national Republicans have funds relatively available, funds will come back into the district.
(The same could be said about the Democrats, if Graf can close the gap at least somewhat in the next couple weeks.)
Having said this, it does look like the Republicans are making some very tough decisions. They are NOT funding incumbents who should be able to win on their own (e.g., multi-term incumbents in districts with a substantial Republican tilt). Instead, they are focusing their resources on vulnerable incumbents and a very small number of pick-up opportunities.
This strategy is predicated on maintaining a majority, even if a diminished majority, in the House. It is a defensive strategy.
If this is, indeed, the strategy, the fact is that non-incumdents will be at a severe disadvantage relative to vulnerable incumbents in getting money from the national Republicans.
I think this is a case of the Democrats believing their own polls. Bush won the district, and the overwhelming majority of Americans support Graf's position on immigration.
Ping.