Major Iraqi Al-Qaida Merger Rumored in the Works

Counter terrorism Blog ^ | 09.18.06 | Evan Kohlmann

[Perdogg]

As-yet unsubstantiated reports have begun circulating on radical Arabic-language Internet chat forums that a major effort is now underway to bring the notorious Ansar al-Sunnah Army in Iraq officially under the umbrella of Al-Qaida's Mujahideen Shura Council (MSC). Active since at least mid-2003, Ansar al-Sunnah is one of the few Iraqi insurgent groups other than Zarqawi's Al-Qaida to openly advocate a pro-Bin Laden platform, to carry out suicide bombing attacks, and to distribute beheading videos on the Internet. According to the reports, discussions and "planning sessions" are currently being held in the restive western Al-Anbar province between representatives of Al-Qaida and Ansar al-Sunnah, with the ultimate objective of announcing their would-be merger during the coming month of Ramadan (approximately September 24 to October 23, 2006).

Such a possible merger could hold very dark implications for the future of Iraq. While Ansar al-Sunnah and Al-Qaida certainly have worked together previously on occasion, a unified coalition of these Salafist extremists (both local and foreign) will present a stiff challenge to secular democratic forces who are desperately seeking to end the ongoing sectarian killings between Shiites and Sunnis. It will also present a further barrier to the U.S. military's effort to uproot tenacious networks of Al-Qaida cells from northern and western Iraq

[Perdogg]

I guess the new name, after the merger, will be Ansar al-Sunnah Shuria, or A.S.S.

[Steel Wolf]

That's definitely not a good development. Ansar al Sunnah is a huge organization that runs along the spine of the Sunni Triangle, Baghdad to Mosul, and point beyond. They are mostly a local Iraqi Salafist group, as opposed to the more foreign influenced al-Qa'ida in Iraq. Their aims are considerable more local and grounded in reality than AQI, which may have a very moderating and politicizing effect on them.

Ansar al Sunnah are still terrorists, but they're Iraqi Salafists who have a distinct vision for a new Iraq, beyond blowing up mosques to start a civil war. They want a real Islamic theocracy, a Saudi Arabia without the Saudi family. Given the horrific damage AQI has suffered, if they're joining up, it's probably with AAS as the senior member. Their goals and aspirations have far more public support than AQIs, and they are fighting for their home turf.

Al-Qa'ida was never more than a foreign led resistance movement, even though many Iraqis took part in it. AAS is a nationalist group, and they have much deeper community support. They have political connections, and religious backing. They're also not as extreme as AQI, which makes them more palatable to the people. They've traditionally been rivals, though, so AQI must be in dire straits to consider joining up. AAS wouldn't even consider it, unless they were getting the better end of the deal.

[Blueflag]

The more they consolidate, the fewer and more important targets of interest they create.

Bring it on.

[17th Miss Regt]

Yeah, but will the anti-trust dweebs at the SEC ever allow this to occur? What will the shareholders say???

[rjp2005]

Good analysis SW, thanks.

We need to up the ante on north american oil and alt research because the kingdom is going to go under in a few years.

[Steel Wolf]

We need to up the ante on north american oil and alt research because the kingdom is going to go under in a few years.

That's exactly the truth.

The House of Saud is built on quicksand, and it's sinking fast. It's too good a gig for the royal family to give up willingly, and they'll probably ride it in until the very last moment before boarding their yachts and private jets for points West. Make no mistake, though, their money is sitting in Swiss banks, and their backup plans are already in place. As soon as the Islamic mobs start taking over, the royal family will utter a collective "I hear the south of France is lovely this time of year" and skip town.

Then we're out of luck.

[Rutles4Ever]

The fools! Wait until they find out about Sarbanes-Oxley.

[Chgogal]

Very interesting post, Perdogg, thank you.

Steel Wolf, et al., how do you dissect and reassemble these two reports (this one and the one below) separated by a day to make sense of what is happening in Iraq? My uneducated guess, Al Qaeda and the remaining indigenous insurgency are feeling pressure and have to make the best of a lousy situation. I'm really curious how best to digest these two reports.

Most Tribes in Anbar Agree to Unite Against Insurgents (The NY Times is deeply saddened)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1703582/posts
NY Times ^ | September 18, 2006 |

[VeniVidiVici]

Sorry. Won't happen.

The EU will file an anti-trust lawsuit and put a stop to it.

[MissAmericanPie]

They have to fall into each other for support given there are so few of them left.

[leadpenny]

Thanks for the ping. I notice some stuff about this in an AP story this morning:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060919/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq

I see the article has been updated just as I looked at it again.

[Cannoneer No. 4]

Big sorting out of the Sunnis. The tribes are deciding that survival lies in joining the gov't in at least pretending to fight the hostiles.

Tough times for the Sunni holdouts, but eventually they will quit, emigrate or die. They continue to hope for Democrats to regain power and come to their aid.

[Chgogal]

What is so very interesting is that nothing has changed over the past 1000 years. Did you know that that today some Catholics will celebrate Our Lady of Ransom? I never heard of it. About 800 years ago in Spain, the Moors would kidnap Christians and the victims' families would pay ransoms in hope of getting their loved ones back alive and in good health. Sure sounds familiar. Too bad we in the West have forgotten our history.

http://www.magnificat.ca/cal/engl/09-24.htm
http://www.magnificat.ca/cal/engl/01-28.htm#nolasque

How's your son? Prayers, as you know.

[Chgogal]

Is the sorting going "our" way?

How are you doing out there in Hesco City? You OK??? Thanks for posting again they are always informative and positive. It is appreciated so.

[Domestic Church]

Ping!

[Godzilla]

Such a possible merger could hold very dark implications for the future of Iraq. While Ansar al-Sunnah and Al-Qaida certainly have worked together previously on occasion, a unified coalition of these Salafist extremists (both local and foreign) will present a stiff challenge to secular democratic forces who are desperately seeking to end the ongoing sectarian killings between Shiites and Sunnis. It will also present a further barrier to the U.S. military's effort to uproot tenacious networks of Al-Qaida cells from northern and western Iraq

this merger may also represent a situation where each have been depleted to the extent that they need to merge in order to maintain an active resistance.

[USMCPOP]

Then let's invade Switzerland now, before it's too late!