Posted on 09/17/2006 3:31:08 PM PDT by blam
September 19, 2006
The World Health Organization (WHO) warned on Tuesday of an increasing threat of an influenza pandemic and said it was imperative that states prepared to deal with it.
http://news.monstersandcritics.com/health/article_1202889.php/WHO_warns_nations_to_prepare_for_pandemic
9/19/2006 4:03:00 PM
Houston Companies Urged To Prepare For Bird Flu Pandemic
HOUSTON (Dow Jones)--Although a much-feared global outbreak of avian flu has so far not surfaced, Houston public health officials Tuesday urged local businesses to prepare emergency response plans should a pandemic hit the global energy center.
"Things happen here," Herminia Palacio, Executive Director of Harris County Public Health and Environmental Services, told the "Texas Bird Flu Forum." Palacio ... predicted that a major health scare like bird flu was inevitable at some point.
"It will happen," said Palacio, adding that it was impossible to know whether such an outbreak was six months or 10 years away. She warned of the need to avoid a similar fate to Toronto, which was badly hamstrung by an outbreak of SARS in 2003.
Palacio was followed at a well-attended half-day seminar by speakers from ConocoPhillips (COP), Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) and Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSA), who described the industry's preparatory steps to protect employees and ensure operations continuity should a worst-case scenario surface.
A base case outbreak of a bird flu pandemic could affect 30% of Houston's population, require hospitalization of up to 100,000 people and result in up to 23,000 deaths, Palacio said. The surge in activity from an outbreak would stretch Houston's public health infrastructure beyond its capacity, she said.
http://www.cattlenetwork.com/content.asp?contentid=69634
Although a pandemic has so far not surfaced, energy companies have already contended with sporadic outbreaks of bird flu anxiety. Richard Dockins, a manager in ExxonMobil's global medical group, said company officials had to reassure workers in Nigeria after the State Department began suggesting expatriate evacuations in response to that country's first bird flu case. ExxonMobil has encountered similar confusion in other key energy countries, including Kazhakstan and Indonesia, whenever birds die of the disease.
"There's still a lot of confusion, even among providers, about the difference between bird flu and a pandemic," Dockins told Dow Jones Newswires. In Nigeria, "it took about three days for it to peak and then calm back down," Dockins said of the surge in worry.
Basing the scenario on a 1918-like outbreak, ExxonMobil business units have an operating plan for a 6-8-week pandemic wave. Besides establishing plans to enable business continuity, the effort will strive to safeguard continual supply of transportation fuels and power generation fuels for use by critical infrastructure, Dockins said.
Energy companies in Houston are seasoned in emergency response after the wave of recent hurricanes. But a bird flu outbreak differs from the storms in that "it will impact people more than it will impact assets," said Rob Donnelly, Shell's regional manager for health services in the Americas.
Besides good business sense, the extensive focus on bird flu by governments is further incentive for companies to prepare bird flu contingency plans, said Joseph McMenamin, an attorney with McGuire Woods in Richmond, Va.
(I've read a number of stories about companies having problems keeping their employees overseas. Intel has a 12 member staff that deals only with this and other Bird Flu related issues. I've also read that numerous companies have contracted with charter airlines (not commercial) to fly their employees home in the event of a pandemic. )
Meanwhile: Kiss that uncomfortable greeting goodbye
Daniel Akst The Boston Globe
Published: September 20, 2006
It may be a little early to look for silver linings in the advent of bird flu, yet if there can be an upside to the threat of pandemic, perhaps it's this: an end to the confusion and awkwardness surrounding indiscriminate social kissing in the United States.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/09/20/opinion/edakst.php
Posted on September 19, 2006
by Sarah Jenkins
Market Daily
With bird flu dominating the news lately, it has left many people wondering why it is such a concern. An outbreak of a virus in Asia may seem like it would have little impact on our daily lives; yet many people have become obsessed with the disease. Is it possible there may be more than meets the eye with bird flu?
Bird Flu, also known as avian influenza, is not a new virus; it has actually been around since the early 1900’s. So why the big scare? A particular strand of the virus, H5N1, has been contracted by several humans, over 100 people, and led to the death of over half of those infected. Since most of the types of this virus only affect birds and some other animals, it was of concern when people started contracting the disease in the first place. Likewise, when so many people died as a result, concern was replaced with apprehension. Now, however, an even larger crisis may be at hand.
With the increase in the spread of the virus, many are worried that a pandemic will start as a result – basically a global plague sweeping across the world. Information regarding a pandemic and other contamination issues of bird flu is available in ebook 2 of “A Guide to Bird Flu and How to Avoid Catching It.” For a pandemic to occur, three things must take place: a new virus must emerge, it causes serious illness in humans, and is easily spread among humans. The first two on this list have already taken place. This strand of the virus is new to humans and it causes very serious illness among those infected. However, because the virus has primarily been passed from birds to humans, and not by human to human contact, the third condition has not yet been fulfilled.
The concern is that, because the virus is infecting humans, it will mutate to the point that human transmission takes place on a wide scale. The more people it infects, the more opportunity it has to mutate. If this should happen, containing the disease will be almost impossible. Also, because there is little available in the way of treatment, many people will die as a result.
Many Americans are not concerned because the outbreaks have only occurred in Asia at this point. However, even in Asia, the virus is spreading rapidly. Also, with international travel so commonplace, once human transmission is possible, the virus will know no bounds, especially not geographically. Much like AIDS, it will devastate the world, consuming people of all ages, ethnicities, and backgrounds.
Flu surfaces in Mobile County ( Alabama, USA )
Last Update: 9/20/2006 8:54:28 PM
(MOBILE, Alabama) September 20- A warning tonight, the flu bug is here. Already, there have been a dozen cases of flu confirmed in Alabama.
One case is right here in Mobile County, and officials report eleven more in Dale County. Both Influenza-A and Influenza-B have surfaced.
In fact, State Health officials already are reporting one case of Influenza B here in Mobile County.
http://www.wpmi.com/news/local/story.aspx?content_id=BC681EAE-5B1F-405B-BA9E-CC97CC493A29
October or November is the best time to get vaccinated, but you can still get vaccinated in December and later.
Flu season can begin as early as October and last as late as May.
About 2 weeks after vaccination, antibodies that provide protection against influenza virus infection develop in the body.
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/protect/keyfacts.htm
Why the chicken crossed the ocean -- twice
A new government rule will soon allow American chicken meat to be exported to China to be processed, then shipped back.
The Department of Agriculture (in April, 2006) certified China as eligible to export processed chicken meat to the United States -- but with one caveat. The chicken has to be American.
In other words, American chicken will travel across the ocean once and return cooked and canned - to be sent on its way to a supermarket shelf near you.
http://money.cnn.com/2006/05/19/news/international/china_chickendeal/index.htm
From the CDC website:
Before and after 1918, most influenza pandemics developed in Asia and spread from there to the rest of the world. Confounding definite assignment of a geographic point of origin, the 1918 pandemic spread more or less simultaneously in 3 distinct waves during a 12-month period in 1918 -1919, in Europe, Asia, and North America (the first wave was best described in the United States in March 1918).
Although in 1918 influenza was not a nationally reportable disease and diagnostic criteria for influenza and pneumonia were vague, death rates from influenza and pneumonia in the United States had risen sharply in 1915 and 1916 because of a major respiratory disease epidemic beginning in December 1915. Death rates then dipped slightly in 1917.
The first pandemic influenza wave appeared in the spring of 1918, followed in rapid succession by much more fatal second and third waves in the fall and winter of 1918 - 1919, respectively. In the 1918 - 1919 pandemic, a first or spring wave began in March 1918 and spread unevenly through the United States, Europe, and possibly Asia over the next 6 months. Illness rates were high, but death rates in most locales were not appreciably above normal.
A second or fall wave spread globally from September to November 1918 and was highly fatal.
In many nations, a third wave occurred in early 1919. Clinical similarities led contemporary observers to conclude initially that they were observing the same disease in the successive waves.
The milder forms of illness in all 3 waves were identical and typical of influenza seen in the 1889 pandemic and in prior interpandemic years.
In retrospect, even the rapid progressions from uncomplicated influenza infections to fatal pneumonia, a hallmark of the 1918 - 1919 fall and winter waves, had been noted in the relatively few severe spring wave cases.
The differences between the waves thus seemed to be primarily in the much higher frequency of complicated, severe, and fatal cases in the last 2 waves.
But 3 extensive pandemic waves of influenza within 1 year, occurring in rapid succession, with only the briefest of quiescent intervals between them, was unprecedented.
The occurrence, and to some extent the severity, of recurrent annual outbreaks, are driven by viral antigenic drift, with an antigenic variant virus emerging to become dominant approximately every 2 to 3 years.
Without such drift, circulating human influenza viruses would presumably disappear once herd immunity had reached a critical threshold at which further virus spread was sufficiently limited.
The timing and spacing of influenza epidemics in interpandemic years have been subjects of speculation for decades. Factors believed to be responsible include partial herd immunity limiting virus spread in all but the most favorable circumstances, which include lower environmental temperatures and human nasal temperatures (beneficial to thermolabile viruses such as influenza), optimal humidity, increased crowding indoors, and imperfect ventilation due to closed windows and suboptimal airflow.
However, such factors cannot explain the 3 pandemic waves of 1918 - 1919, which occurred in the spring-summer, summer-fall, and winter (of the Northern Hemisphere), respectively.
The first 2 waves occurred at a time of year normally unfavorable to influenza virus spread. The second wave caused simultaneous outbreaks in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres from September to November. Furthermore, the interwave periods were so brief as to be almost undetectable in some locales. Reconciling epidemiologically the steep drop in cases in the first and second waves with the sharp rises in cases of the second and third waves is difficult.
Assuming even transient postinfection immunity, how could susceptible persons be too few to sustain transmission at 1 point and yet enough to start a new explosive pandemic wave a few weeks later?
Could the virus have mutated profoundly and almost simultaneously around the world, in the short periods between the successive waves? Acquiring viral drift sufficient to produce new influenza strains capable of escaping population immunity is believed to take years of global circulation, not weeks of local circulation. And having occurred, such mutated viruses normally take months to spread around the world.
At the beginning of other "off season" influenza pandemics, successive distinct waves within a year have not been reported. The 1889 pandemic, for example, began in the late spring of 1889 and took several months to spread throughout the world, peaking in northern Europe and the United States late in 1889 or early in 1890. The second recurrence peaked in late spring 1891 (more than a year after the first pandemic appearance) and the third in early 1892.
As was true for the 1918 pandemic, the second 1891 recurrence produced of the most deaths. The 3 recurrences in 1889 - 1892, however, were spread over >3 years, in contrast to 1918 - 1919, when the sequential waves seen in individual countries were typically compressed into 8 - 9 months. What gave the 1918 virus the unprecedented ability to generate rapidly successive pandemic waves is unclear.
Because the only 1918 pandemic virus samples we have yet identified are from second-wave patients, nothing can yet be said about whether the first (spring) wave, or for that matter, the third wave, represented circulation of the same virus or variants of it.
Data from 1918 suggest that persons infected in the second wave may have been protected from influenza in the third wave. But the few data bearing on protection during the second and third waves after infection in the first wave are inconclusive and do little to resolve the question of whether the first wave was caused by the same virus or whether major genetic evolutionary events were occurring even as the pandemic exploded and progressed. Only influenza RNA - positive human samples from before 1918, and from all 3 waves, can answer this question.
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12no01/05-0979.htm
Bird flu: A threat to humanity
By Mehdi Pervez
Sat, 23 Sep 2006, 10:07:00
http://nation.ittefaq.com/artman/publish/article_30984.shtml
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USAID Administrator Randall Tobias on bird flu spread
In the past year, the highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus moved rapidly outside of Southeast Asia and spread into Europe, Eurasia, and Africa.
The disease has been detected in 53 countries..."
http://www.news-medical.net/?id=20280
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