Russia set to boost economic ties with Pakistan

ISLAMABAD, September 5 (RIA Novosti) - Russia is seeking to expand its economic presence in Pakistan, the head of a delegation that has arrived in the Asian country said Tuesday.

The Soviet Union maintained close ties with Pakistan and now Russia is moving to restore its influence in the region, including by re-establishing ties with its former partner.

Yelena Danilova, who is in charge of foreign ties with the Economic Development and Trade Ministry, said cooperation between the two countries was far from intensive despite a recent rise in trade.

"In 2002, trade between Russia and Pakistan was only about $100 million but in 2005 the figure rose to $278 million," she said, adding that Russian exports had doubled in the past year, according Pakistani sources.

The head of the Russian delegation, who will be in Pakistan until September 7, also said that her country was ready to join a multi-billion-dollar project to build a gas pipeline to transport Iran's natural gas to India and Pakistan.

Pakistan has invited Russia to join the 2,500-kilometer (1,555 mile) pipeline project, and Russian natural gas giant Gazprom showed interest in the offer when the company's chief executive, Alexei Miller, met with Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf last October. The project is set to get under way in mid-2007.

Danilova also said Russia was interested in building thermo-power and hydropower plants in Pakistan, which has a population of about 148 million.

"In this sector, we have presence in countries neighboring Pakistan, and now intend to enter this market too," Danilova said.

The delegation head said the governments of the two countries had agreed to set up a commission for trade and economic cooperation in 2000.

"But the commission has not been formed, and therefore the visit of our delegation is virtually the first event in the past six years designed to consider bilateral economic potential comprehensively," she said.

Danilova said her delegation, including officials from the Foreign and Economic Development and Trade ministries, had already met with Pakistani diplomats, and would also talk to representatives of other top ministries and leading companies in the country.

The Russian official added that Pakistan was ready to cooperate in telecommunications, in particular, using Russian spacecraft for communication purposes, geological surveying and to provide early warning of natural disasters. About 80,000 people died in an earthquake that hit Pakistan last year.

Danilova also said Russia was interested in exporting agricultural equipment to Pakistan. "We had contacts in this area in Soviet times, and now we are set to revive them," she said, adding that Pakistan also needed Russian railroad cars, fertilizers and automobiles.

"A joint venture has been opened to assemble [Russia's] Kamaz trucks in Pakistan," she said. "A total of 200 trucks have already been made, and it is only the beginning."

She also said her delegation planned to discuss the legal aspect of further relations, including guarantees for Russian investors.

Pakistan has also proposed signing an agreement on a free trade zone but Danilova said that Russia was considering the idea.

YOU GOT IT. As soon as I read the headline, I said, "And Russia wants more business with Iran too." What is wrong with this picture.....

On Pakistan and Terror War:
More Questions than Answers

By John E. Carey

After last week’s dramatic bagging of suspected airline bombers, one of the subtexts of the story still emerging is the key cooperation and involvement of Pakistan’s government and intelligence services.

Widespread media reporting on Pakistan’s role as super-partner of the U.S. and Britain in the war against terror needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

The complexities of Pakistan are not well understood in the west. As Sumit Ganguly, author of “Conflict Unending: India-Pakistan Tensions Since 1947,” reported in Foreign Affairs, “Given the signal importance of Pakistan to U.S. foreign policy these days, the lack of informed commentary on the country is striking.”

Dr. Ganguly is Professor of Political Science at the University of Indiana, Bloomington, and a respected analyst of Pakistan's political situation.

We caught up with Professor Ganguly as he traveled between Singapore and India. We asked him, "Is Pakistan really committed to the war against terror?"

Dr. Ganguly answered, without much pause: "It is not. The commitment is merely expediential. I well realize that my view is heretical but the task of an academic is to speak truth to power. General Musharraf and his colleagues, I have long maintained, are only doing enough to ensure a steady supply of American economic and military assistance."

Dr. Ganguly was born in India, which makes some doubt his assessment. Yet he expressed the opinion of a wide spectrum of analysts who watch Pakistan.

Pakistan’s military government is headed by President/General Pervez Musharraf. He took power by military coup and heads a difficult coalition that enforces loyalty to one man and one country.But there is no one country.

Pakistan has a well known underground of Islamic extremists and terrorists and has long been suspected of harboring Osama bin Laden and Al-Qaeda. Along the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan, long a disputed kind of rebel territory the Pakistani Army stayed clear of, most western intelligence experts believe Osama bib Laden and al Qaida, the leadership of the Taliban, and other Islamic terror camps now house terrorists from Uzbekistan and groups from Chechnya to Indonesia.

These terrorists groups in the secret underground of radicals within Pakistan itself operate in virtually self governed enclaves, much the way Hezbollah has operated within Lebanon for years.

Although Pakistan has made some inroads into the area at the urging of the US, the widespread existence of the terror camps continues.

"Pakistan will cooperate to the extent it suits them," said Dr. Ganguly, referring to Pakistan's work with the U.S. on the war on terror.

The “Father of Pakistan’s Nuclear Bomb” is A. Q. Khan. He was sacked from the position unceremoniously in January 2004 during an investigation into allegations that he gave or sold nuclear secrets to nations and groups outside Pakistan. He confessed and apologized.

The next day President Musharraf pardoned him, calling him “my hero.”

So why has the U.S. ignored Pakistan’s vocal but not total support for the war on terror and apparent disregard for nuclear non-proliferation?

The U.S. may feel that it has done enough in the war against terror with Pakistan and further persuasion of Musharraf would pay few dividends.

Inside Pakistan, some of the answers lie in the secret intelligence service, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Widely reported as one of the heroes in thwarting the London airline pilot plot (and assisting in the arrest of London July 05 bus bombers), the ISI has a record shrouded in secrecy and double dealing.

The ISI helps keep Musharraf in power even as he cultivates the west. Many believe the ISI also allows Islamic extremists and Al-Qaeda to operate within Pakistan.Just after the terror train bombing in India on July 11, 2006, India’s well respected Hundustan Times reported, “[Indian] Intelligence agencies on Thursday confirmed that Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) was the ‘mastermind’ of the blasts that killed about 200 people.”

We also wondered why more experts in Pakistan are not speaking out about the war on terror and Pakistan’s role. A Pakistani professor who carefully follows politics and security issues from within Pakistan told us, “The ISI would make things extremely uncomfortable for any critics speaking to the international press. I correct that. Any press.”

We certainly take with a grain of salt the mainstream media’s proclamations this week that Pakistan is a full and reliable partner in the war against terror.

John E. Carey is former president of International Defense Consultants, Inc. He frequently has worked in Pakistan.

This essay is also at "India Defense:"
http://www.india-defence.com/reports/2360

A Few Thoughts: Iran and Russia

By John E. Carey
September 5, 2006

When physicists discuss fluid dynamics they speak about removing one fluid only to find the vessel filled with some other fluid. For example, as you use the gasoline from your car’s tank, the liquid fuel is replaced by a vapor mix of air and gasoline vapor.

International diplomacy has some of these same aspects of fluid dynamics. As the influence of one nation wanes, other nations see opportunities and “fill the void.”

When the United States is opposed to a regime or government leadership these days, who naturally fills the void? Russia, almost always. And sometimes China or a mix of the two.

Since 1979, when the Iranian hostage crisis commenced, the United States has had no recognized relationship with Iran. In fact, the U.S. has enforced economic sanctions against Iran and has, at times, been on the brink of war more than once. A cat and mouse game between the U.S. Navy and Iran’s forces has been on a slowly moving roller coaster for decades.

When the “fluid” of U.S. influence retreated from Iran, Russia jumped in. This has made for an economically fruitful relationship, especially for Russia. For example, the U.S. prohibits Iran from buying U.S. made aircraft and aircraft parts. No Boeing sales are permitted in Iran. Sop Tehran buys from Russia, mostly Tupelev aircraft and components. This is one of the reasons Iran has such a poor airline safety record: they buy inferior equipment (and they also maintain their equipment very badly).

When I first became involved in Iran, we had a warm and close relationship. While the Shah was still leading Iran, Iran was a huge U.S. ally and the nations cooperated extensively. The armed forces in Iran were modeled after those in the United States and they used mostly U.S. equipment. For example; all of Iran’s fighter aircraft were U.S. built, like F-4s and F-14s.

After the Islamic revolution, all this changed.

And Russia filled the void.

We still suffer from this loss. As Iran’s leaders have move further away from the world mainstream and more into a radical form of Islam, few allies but Russia and other extremist Islam regimes can get along with Iran.

Today, Russia is the leading economic partner of Iran. Russia is also the nation most culpable for assisting Iran with their nuclear ambitions.

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