Posted on 09/03/2006 11:55:03 AM PDT by calcowgirl
Heading into the Labor Day weekend with a double-digit lead, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger continues to dominate the campaign agenda and broaden his support with a succession of high-profile agreements with legislative Democrats.
Meanwhile, with the election barely two months away, Democratic nominee Phil Angelides is still struggling to unify his party behind his candidacy and get off the defensive on taxes.
A statewide survey released last week by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California showed the Republican governor leading Angelides, the state treasurer, 45 percent to 32 percent, with the rest undecided or favoring minor-party candidates.
That's identical to the 13-point lead the same poll showed for Schwarzenegger last month.
More important for the governor, the survey shows that he continues to make progress at reassembling the coalition of Republicans, independents and moderate Democrats that elected him in the 2003 recall but abandoned him and his initiatives in last year's special election.
Despite grumbling on Schwarzenegger's conservative flank about his shift to the left on a variety of issues this year, 82 percent of the Republicans said they would vote to re-elect him.
By contrast, only 58 percent of the Democrats were on board with Angelides, who survived a bitter and expensive primary battle with state Controller Steve Westly.
“I think when nearly half of the Democratic voters are saying they're not satisfied with the choice of candidates, that tells us that Angelides still has to make the case to many Democratic voters who either sat out the primary or voted for Westly,” poll director Mark Baldassare said.
The Angelides camp says there is plenty of time to catch up and that the Schwarzenegger campaign and the California Republican Party have little to show for their nonstop TV advertising blitz since the June primary election.
“They've spent $20 million,” said Bill Carrick, senior strategist for the Angelides campaign. “It was pretty much an effort to try to keep Angelides from having any momentum or recovering from a pretty tough primary. Schwarzenegger hasn't really moved his numbers very much. I think we're still in striking distance.”
Some Democrats aren't buying it.
“I don't think he's got any traction,” said Garry South, who managed the Westly campaign. “To have the Democratic nominee in this blue state of California coming in at 32 percent of the vote tells you that something is fundamentally wrong. He's just not selling.”
As the 2006 legislative session neared its end, Schwarzenegger pre-empted huge chunks of the political center by forging deals with the Democratic leadership on global warming, discount prescription drugs, the minimum wage and solar energy.
Most were strongly opposed by Schwarzenegger's allies in business and received few if any Republican votes in the Legislature. And, in the case of the minimum wage and prescription drugs, they marked sharp reversals on bills he vetoed in previous years.
This has given rise to the contention by Democrats and conservative Republicans that the governor is a flip-flopper who lacks core principles.
“It's hard for him to communicate a vision for the future when no one knows where he is on anything,” said Mike Spence, president of the conservative California Republican Assembly.
Analysts question whether the inconsistency charge packs much punch, especially when it involved programs that enjoy considerable public support.
“Schwarzenegger is systematically defusing Democratic ammunition on minimum wage, health care and other issues – hence the flip-flopping charge,” said Jack Pitney, a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College. “The trouble with that is that the governor is flipping in the popular direction. The people who are getting an increase in the minimum wage are happy to get it, even though he previously opposed it.”
Schwarzenegger has said he would put health care at the top of the agenda in a second term. But beyond that, he has offered few clues as to what the next four years might hold if he's re-elected.
Given the flip-flopper charge, that might be fertile ground for Angelides to explore, said Bill Whalen, a research fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution who was a speechwriter for former Republican Gov. Pete Wilson.
“The second-term Schwarzenegger administration is a great guessing game as to where he's going to go, what he's going to do,” Whalen said. “You have a governor who's not that attached to his party, who can't run again because of term limits, and who can't move up the ladder because of the Constitution.”
(Because he was born in Austria, Schwarzenegger can't run for president.)
Angelides in recent weeks has adopted a populist message in his quest to keep the contest for governor competitive.
When he formally announced his candidacy for governor in March 2005, Angelides called for raising taxes on wealthy individuals and corporations to pay down the state budget deficit, boost education funding, lower college tuition and fund assorted other programs.
A few weeks ago, that morphed into the “Angelides plan to cut middle-class taxes” as the Democratic nominee began portraying himself as a champion of working Californians, while regularly accusing Schwarzenegger of doing the bidding of powerful corporate interests.
“Folks in the middle feel really squeezed – gas prices, energy costs in general, health care costs, pharmaceutical costs, rising college tuition,” said the Angelides' campaign's Carrick. “All of those things have made people very aware of the economy, and they don't see this governor as someone who fights for their interests.”
The Westly campaign hammered Angelides over tax increases during the Democratic primary, and the Schwarzenegger campaign picked up the issue as soon as the primary was over.
“For Phil Angelides, the guy who wants to increase taxes, to come out and say he's for tax cuts, that's a discussion we're happy to have,” said Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the governor's re-election campaign.
To South, the former Westly campaign manager, the best thing the Angelides campaign could do is change the subject altogether.
“There's one major rule of thumb in political campaigns, and that is you don't keep talking about your major problem, don't keep gabbing about your biggest liability,” he said. “Every time he talks about taxes in any context, it just lets everybody dredge up every proposal he's made about raising taxes.”
Angelides says his tax plan would cost $5.1 billion and be paid for mostly by a three-year tax increase on couples earning more than $500,000 a year. The rest would be financed by closing unspecified “corporate loopholes” and cutting costs through “efficiencies” he hasn't spelled out.
The Schwarzenegger campaign contends that Angelides' campaign promises would cost more than $18 billion – a figure the Democrat denounces as a fabrication.
Whatever the case, it's a debate that in the view of most political analysts is doing Angelides no good.
“Any day you're opponent is explaining, 'My tax increase is not that huge,' that's a good day for your campaign,” Whalen said.
One issue on which Schwarzenegger hasn't wavered is his refusal to consider raising taxes. While there may be dissension in the Republican ranks over social issues, opposition to taxes remains a unifying theme.
Cassandra Pye, Schwarzenegger's former deputy chief of staff, summarized the governor's message to Republicans uneasy about his recent actions: “I may not be as conservative as you'd like me to be, but I'm still governor and I've got the veto pen, and I'm running against someone who wants to raise your taxes.”
That's not good enough for conservative Republican Spence, who contends that Schwarzenegger has systematically alienated both social and economic conservatives by his dealings with legislative Democrats.
Spence said he's not worried about the prospect of Angelides raising taxes as governor because Republicans in the Legislature would never give him the two-thirds vote he would need.
On the other hand, Spence said, if Schwarzenegger changes his mind on a tax increase in a second term, he might be able to persuade enough Republican legislators to go along with him to reach two-thirds.
“The only thing we have to rely on is his word, and that's not good enough with him,” Spence said.
Oh, goody!
I bet he doesn't win by as much as people think. I also bet this gap is going to draw tighter in the closing days.
So he will sign that disgusting universal healthcare bill?
Just waiting until after the election?
4 More Years Beers.. hic
4 More Years Beers.. hic
4 More Years Beers.. hic
ya wanna bet they raise the tax on beer and alcohol , for starters? ;-)
That healthcare bill (SB84) was pretty extreme--even Angelides opposes it.
As to the next four years, I'll take Norms advice... grab another beer and fasten my seatbelt.
That would be downright mean of them!
Good news only because Angelides is so terrible.
That healthcare bill (SB84SB 840) was pretty extreme--even Angelides opposes it.
(I work for a health care association in Sacramento, and Arnold privately told our reps months ago that he'll make expansion of coverage to bring in the uninsured a top priority if he's re-elected.)
I agree. Arnold has 82% support among Republicans. The other 18% are probably Freepers who can't bring themselves to swallow Arnold's lurch to the left, so it's possible that nearly one-fifth of Republicans may not vote for governor in the election. Most of Wesley's supporters probably remain ambivalent toward Angelides. And let's face it...many might be willing to vote for Angelides, but can't bring themselves to vote for a guy who looks like a dweeb.
I don't know what 45-32 translates into if this 77% represents those who will eventually vote for a gubernatorial candidate, but it looks like Arnold could win big in a low-turnout election, where a good many Republicans and Democrats refuse to vote.
Dan, I find that hard to believe. Not that the polls won't show a tightening race, but that the final vote will reflect a contest.
In the face of the that logic stands Angelides almost complete lack of charisma on the stump, the actions of his enemies developed in the CADEM hierarchy over the years and Schmidt's obvious effort to take away Angelides appeal to the center.
Favoring that theory is a collapse of conservative support for the Republican in November and that failure, even if apparent, simply doesn't represent enough (max 4 points) to significantly reduce double digits leads .
IMO the only event that could trigger that magnitude of shift is if the Republican makes a last minute, miscalculated appeal to conservatives within his own party and I don't see Schmidt making that mistake.
The governor does'nt rule state government in California. So it is immaterial who gets the nod.
This is a Democrat run red state and decidedly left-wing dominated. Politics is not anything the people have any say so in whatsoever.
(No more Olmert! No more Kadima! No more Oslo! )
If he signs the healthcare bill he will loose support.
However, I think his calculus is that it will be "free stuff" (bread to the mob) which will buy him votes.
Win the mob politics.
Angilides has no prayer.
A win is a win. I'll take this over ridiculous nailbiters like W's runs.
Spence said he's not worried about the prospect of Angelides raising taxes as governor because Republicans in the Legislature would never give him the two-thirds vote he would need.
On the other hand, Spence said, if Schwarzenegger changes his mind on a tax increase in a second term, he might be able to persuade enough Republican legislators to go along with him to reach two-thirds.
“The only thing we have to rely on is his word, and that's not good enough with him,” Spence said.
This is the killer sentence:“The only thing we have to rely on is his word, and that's not good enough with him." Exactly. Republicans will be able to block Angelides from raising taxes. But a re-elected Arnold would be able, in the event he decided to change his mind, to coerce enough Republicans into voting to increase them! Now what was that FO says about Angelides being worse? Hardly because he can't get Republicans to sell out to the liberal agenda. But Arnold is capable of doing that kind of damage and more - if he's re-elected.
So now y'all can see why I have NOT endorsed his re-election in November. The price of victory isn't worth the weakening it would bring to our party.
(No more Olmert! No more Kadima! No more Oslo! )
I say restore the 18th Ammendment!
(No more Olmert! No more Kadima! No more Oslo! )
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