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Posted on 08/30/2006 6:30:12 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Ernesto is poised to emerge into Atlantic waters after feebly creeping along the Florida peninsula. Media pundits with tremulous cameras dotted Florida's extensive coastline for the past 24 hours, showing video of children playing in the sand, dark skies, and occasional rain.
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from Sebastian Inlet Florida to Cape Lookout North Carolina, as Ernesto moves north at 15mph. The storm's intensity and forecast track has puzzled forecasters for several days.
N.C. Governor Mike Easley and S.C. Governor Mark Sanford activated the National Guard today in their respective states, as the forecast track indicated Ernesto may regain tropical storm force winds, and make landfall again along the Carolinas coastline.
Public Advisories Updated every three hours.
Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours
Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks
Buoy Data Florida & Eastern GOM
Buoy Data Southeast U.S.
Radar
Jacksonville, FL
Charleston SC
Wilmington NC
RDU NC
Satellite Images
Additional Resources:
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Previous Threads:
Tropical Storm Ernesto
Hurricane Ernesto
TS/Hurricane/TS Ernesto
TS/Hurricane/TS/TD Ernesto
No, they stand between two buildings to get that effect.
when do they run that model again?
mark
Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 31, 2006
...Ernesto strengthens over the Atlantic east of northern Florida...
at 5 am EDT...0900 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued
along the Florida coast south of Flagler Beach.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Flagler Beach
Florida to Cape Lookout North Carolina.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 500 am EDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 30.0 north...longitude 80.2 west or about 90
miles...150 km...east-southeast of Jacksonville Florida and about
195 miles...310 km...south of Charleston South Carolina.
Ernesto is moving toward the north near 15 mph...24 km/hr...and a
gradual turn toward the north-northeast and a faster forward speed
are expected during the next 24 hours. This motion will take the
center of Ernesto farther away from the coast of northeast Florida
today...and could bring the center near the north and South Carolina
coasts late this afternoon or tonight.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...85 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km
mainly to the southeast of the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb...29.47 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels
is possible along the coasts of south and North Carolina in areas
of onshore flow within the warning area. Coastal storm surge
flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels is possible along
the Georgia coast in areas of onshore flow.
Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are possible from northeast South
Carolina into the mid-Atlantic states...and the southern and
central Appalachians...with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches...through Saturday. These amounts could cause life-
threatening flash floods. Additional isolated rainfall amounts of
1 to 2 inches are possible over Florida today.
Isolated tornadoes are possible over eastern North Carolina late
this afternoon and tonight.
Repeating the 500 am EDT position...30.0 N...80.2 W. Movement
toward...north near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds...50 mph.
Minimum central pressure...998 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
am EDT.
$$
Forecaster brown/Knabb
On/Off Hurricane Ping list, mash ---> 
.
No, seriously, we're dead. See page A2 for details...
Anyways, I would have gotten prepared no matter what. It's good that all of Florida was on alert. Still, leave it to the MSM to bring out all their drama queens carping for total disaster.
NN, I've neglected to look since we've been focused on Ernesto, but is there anything else brewing out in the Atlantic?
Ernesto is an odd storm. I'll take a near miss any day over a direct hit.
I'm not aware of any developing systems in the Atlantic basin this morning.
That is good news. Every day without tropical development is one day closer to the end of the season. And besides, it sends the DriveBy Media into convulsive fits...
Most of the area is in moderate drought so the flooding will be flash type only (the usual place that always flood). We need rain and this is usually the only way to get it before october or so.
Tropical Weather Outlook
Statement as of 5:30 am EDT on August 31, 2006
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ernesto...located about 90 miles east-southeast of
Jacksonville Florida.
A tropical wave located about 650 miles southwest of the
Cape Verde Islands remains disorganized...and development...if
any...should be slow to occur.
An area of low pressure located about 850 miles east of the
Leeward Islands is moving westward. The associated shower
activity remains minimal and development is not expected at
this time.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Friday.
$$
Forecaster brown/Knabb
Hey NN,
Did your area of town get any rain out of Ernesto? We never saw anything more than some light drizzle.
It looked to me like Ft. Myers area was getting hit pretty hard, does anybody have the rain totals on that area or any other area that actually got some rain out of the system?
We barely got a trace of rain, and it never rained after dawn yesterday. There was an eerie clam all day, not even the usual coastal breeze. Strange.
Us too. We did see a little wind pick up around dinnertime, but nothing like the normal afternoon thunderstorm activity that we've been seeing for weeks.
My "kid" had the car all day, and I was "carless"...so I didn't get out much, but I did walk the dogs and they weren't as "excited" as they usually get before a storm. It was weird, usually before a heavy storm or hurricane, they get a little "hyper," smelling the air, looking for scents. But yesterday they didn't exhibit any of that behavior.
In our area, at least, I guess Ernesto was a non-event, thank goodness.
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