I am bemused by all of the caterwauling about Israel's "losing" the war.
Here is how things stand (my view):
1. This was a battle, not a war.
2. This was Lebanon vs. Israel (Hezbollah IS Lebanon). The meme that Hezbollah is somehow separate from Lebanon is like the great myth that Austria was "Hitler's first victim" (were it not for an unfortunate appointment to the UN Secretary General, this myth would have gone on, unchallenged. Old Joke: What is Waldheimer's Disease? Answer: It makes you forget you were a Nazi).
If you count the casualties and battle damages, Israel won by a TKO.
3. No matter how many weapons and how many troops Hezbollah retains, Lebanon will not soon again try to singe Israel's beard.
4. Iran's cards have been played and they have lost. Hezbo spent over half their missiles store and inflicted precious little damage for all their sound and fury. Now the threat is gone. Yes, Hezbo can start firing them again -- but they won't. They didn't work when tested and would work less well if used again (think of the Battle for Britain and the great Blitz).
5. I predict that GWB will link recovery aid to Lebanon with Hezbo disarmament. Lebanon will have to choose: Give up the proxies or squat in your own filth.
6. The IDF has gotten a good lesson (watching the success of the Yanks in Iraq wasn't enough). The IDF will come up with counters to Hezbo's use of wire guided missiles in lieu of tube artillery and will train the troops to avoid sheltering in buildings in sight of enemy positions. And tank commanders will be taught to keep their heads down and their hatches battened. And the IDF will greatly strengthen training of regular troops and reserves. And the IDF will get substantially greater operating funds.
I don't know if Olmert will survive -- and I don't know if he should survive. I need to know more about the advice he was given and the warnings he received (from Rice & co).
But, PLEASE! Chill out! So what if the Hezbillys dance in the street? Smell the rotting corpses in their bunkers and gauge their appetite to rejoin the battle.
I had the occasion to attend a "wetting down" for a Marine buddy of mine the other night. These guys are no more "losing" the Iraqi war than Israeli soldiers did the war in Lebanon. And they are NOT demoralized. They are pumped, proud, positive, and they LOVE GWB.
All the press to the contrary is BS.
The Israelis first encounter with wire guided missles was the 1973 Yom Kippur War. They've had plenty of time to develop counter-tactics. They just didn't use them.
and will train the troops to avoid sheltering in buildings in sight of enemy positions.
Only inexperienced troops would bunch up in a combat zone.