Hurricane Ernesto

NWS/NHC ^ | 27 August 2006 | NHC

[NautiNurse]

Ernesto is rapidly intensifying to near hurricane strength, with heavy rains and flooding possible over much of Hispaniola. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches...with possible isolated amounts of up to 20 inches...are expected over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for Jamaica. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands. A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the Florida Keys later today.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

Three Day Tracking Map

Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks

Buoy Data Caribbean Sea

Buoy Data Florida & Eastern GOM

Hurricane Model Tracks

Storm Surge graphic

Satellite Images

Visible Satellite Still Image

IR Image

WV Image

Additional Resources:

Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Tropical Storm Ernesto I

[NautiNurse]

Please use common sense when posting graphics--keeping in mind there are FReepers who use dial-up access to the internet, and many have java limitations (e.g. satellite loops). In other words--links are better than posting the graphics.

[dirtboy]

And I'd also like to add that these threads are no place for snarkfests, either, like what happened on the last one. At the end of the day, no one knows for sure where this storm will be three days from now or just how strong it will be then.

Bring in facts and opinions and present them just as that.

[NautiNurse]

Ernesto rapidly intensifying to near hurricane strength.
Tropical Storm Watch may be required for portions of the Florida Keys later today.

70 mph sustained winds, 990 mb, moving WNW 9 mph.

On/Off Hurricane Ping list, mash ---> .

[onyx]

Ditto that, and thanks for the new thread, NautiNurse.

FWIW -- I lost IM contact with my daughter last night, but Cayman wireless often goes awry.

[dirtboy]

Just about time for Key West to start evacuating, IMO.

[NautiNurse]

I had a feeling I wasn't the only one awake waiting for the 0500 advisory. Morning, y'all. It's going to be an interesting week for some of us. Those model tracks are giving me a sick feeling in my tummy.

[dirtboy]

There's a small trough north of the storm now. I think there is an outside chance this turkey can get pulled to the east of Florda now if the trend continues.

[onyx]

I was almost asleep when FNC's LOUD ALERT startled me. Not good news at all. A released tape shows Centani and Olaf converting to Islam. All that's missing in the tape are the machetes being wielded by their captors.

[dirtboy]

I had a feeling I wasn't the only one awake waiting for the 0500 advisory.

I had some stuff out on the clothesline drying out from a thunderstorm Friday night. I heard another storm coming in and tried briefly to get out to pull it down before it got drenched. Instead, I got drenched. So I'm wide awake now, no coffee required.

[NautiNurse]

Hiya buickmackane!

Saw your post immediately after I requested the last thread to be locked. Glad to hear you are settled into your new digs. Another conservative voice in Liberal Land is a good thing! Now...if we can just find a way for bad weather to stop following you...

[dirtboy]

This thing could be VERY bad news for Haiti. Jeanne killed thousands there as a tropical storm in 2004, along the north of the country. This one could drench it along the south.

[NautiNurse]

I think there is an outside chance this turkey can get pulled to the east of Florda now if the trend continues

That would follow the much maligned GFS run yesterday.

[abb]

The good news is that Hispanola's and Cuba's land mass may well do a number on the convection...

[dirtboy]

This was my last post on the old thread right before you started this one:

At this point, this far out from a potential landfall, I look at the trends of the models. And for the last 24 hours, they have been trending more and more eastward. Until they stop doing that, I think it's wise to assume the forecast track (and the track the storm will take) will continue to shift eastward. Key West should really keep an eye out for this one - it could very well sneak up on them and give them little time to get out. And both sides of Florida - not just the Panhandle - need to watch as well.

The center jumped northward last night in response to the shear. It would be horrible for Haiti if it jumped again - but maybe another jump would take it into the mountains of SE Cuba, weaken it, and then send it up through the Bahamas.

[NautiNurse]

Thank you for posting the link to this thread on the old one. I requested for that one to be locked.

[kms61]

it would also be nice to lay off the "Louisiana/New Orleans deserves it," "finish the place off," "you're stupid for living there" posts.

[NautiNurse]

For the past several years, a few of us have observed that virtually all GOM storms end up making landfall further east than originally forecasted.

[dirtboy]

I have a feeling this storm will share the misery with others. Jeanne killed thousands in Haiti as a tropical storm, and this could well do the same - they have steep moutainsides with no forest cover. Prime setup for bad mudslides.

[Crazieman]

Hurricane Ernesto - Weather Channel.

[Uncle Ike]

Thanks for the ping, NN!!

I live in Mobile, AL, and, if I'm understanding the latest trends in the projections, this just got personal.

(I moved here after the storms last year - from Albuquerque! - so it begins to look like I'm going from observer to participant.)

Thanks for these threads - I'm sure they'll be as informative and helpful as they were last year...

Unk Ike