Another Day, Another Dozen Apologies From Sen. Allen

The Washington Post ^ | 8/25/06 | Dana Milbank

[Blackirish]

In lieu of potentially demoralizing issues such as Iraq, Allen addressed conservative causes -- the pledge of allegiance, judicial nominees, and arctic oil drilling to lower gas prices ("It won't bother any of the mosquitoes up there"). He regained some of his usual brashness when he criticized the Bush-backed immigration legislation as "convoluted," "outrageous" and "absurd.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Yeah, Barbour said he wouldn't be running now. He does have a very slow-like-molasses speaking voice (which almost comes off as soothing) that the elites would naturally mock (as they prefer the more haughty and arrogant tones of John F'in Kerry and Serial Gore).

I don't think he much needs to worry about the Yankees, since all he has to do is carry every state Dubya did in '04, and the northeast proved itself to be out of the political mainstream with the way they voted.

[Torie]

Barbour needs to carry Ohio, and some of the more marginal Mountain states, that don't have his accent. I am not putting the guy down. I think he is smart and savvy. But will he really capture the social conservative Yankee Pubbie vote, over say Romney, or McCain, who is working overtime to court it?

[Torie]

Huckabee is a savvy intuition. Whether or not he fits the bill for social conservatives, I don't know. I don't know enough about his views, other than that he thinks fat is bad. I have seen him on the tube however, and he is effective.

[southernnorthcarolina]

Given that Allen is basically out of the presidential hunt (he might even lose his seat), that sort of creates a vacuum as to a candidate whom some conservatives on social issues in particular would support in a GOP primary in 2008 for president. We seem to be left with Romney, Giuliani and McCain as viable candidates, which is fine with me (of course I would hope McCain won't make it, but that is just my opinion), but not to this particular cohort. Who will fill it? Will such voters drift to McCain and/or Romney, or will some person not currently in the running emerge, and if so who?

No, I don't consider Brownback remotely viable with this cohort (he went "soft" on illegal immigration, is a very poor speaker, and comes across as dull, among other things), so I doubt it will be him. So who is left, that one can reasonably expect might decide to go for it to fill the vacuum, as opposed to those who say they won't, such as Condi Rice (who would probably not fill the bill anyway)? Or is no one left, and the three are the viable choices, in which event some in this neighborhood will not be happy campers?

Torie, I'll give you Mitt, Rudy, and McCain, and take the field, for a cold beer. Now, what "the field" consists of, at this early date, is subject to question. But it seems to me that these three, all with at least some appeal to moderates (which is an insulting term among the true believers), are likely to split the RINO vote, and leave the field clear for some as yet unidentified conservative.

Seems to me that an awful lot of moderate Republicans have been early leaders, or at least viable candidates, for the nomination over the years -- Henry Cabot Lodge, George Romney, Nelson Rockefeller, and of course McCain. Not to be paranoid, but the "Eastern establishment press" has had more than a little to do with pushing moderate candidates for the GOP nomination. Given the likely composition of the GOP primary voters and convention delegates, I have every confidence that the nominee will be right of center.

I'm not ready yet to throw in the towel on George Allen, but of course he'll have to win reelection, and by more than a few votes, to remain viable. Frist's star has ebbed (yes, another mixed metaphor), and he's almost done. Two potential candidates who have said they won't run might yet change their minds. No, not Jeb -- fairly or unfairly, Bush weariness among the electorate rules that out. But Condi -- if the Middle East situation improves, as I think it will -- and my current longshot, Haley Barbour.

There is, of course, a long, long way to go.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Huckabee has officially jumped the shark. His performance in his final term has been a disappointment, to say the least, and the AR GOP has been shrinking on his watch after banner growth during the '90s. If the Governorship reverts to the 'Rats, it will solidify his RINO credentials, and that's really a shame.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1633675/posts
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1521486/posts
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1586835/posts

[Torie]

OK, Condi and Barbour, both of whom said they won't run. It seems that there is nobody who has not said they won't run, that comes to your mind. Is that a fair summary?

[fieldmarshaldj]

Well, he's not running or posturing to run, so I don't know what tack Barbour would take. But truly, what reason is there for ANY Conservative to vote in a primary for a Governor with no accomplishments, or a senile media-whoring nut ? And yes, I am putting those two other guys down. ;-)

[southernnorthcarolina]

He [Haley Barbour] might be viable, if the Yankees can tolerate his accent.

Accent? What accent?

:-)

[fieldmarshaldj]

For whatever else goes on, Huckabee is thoroughly out of step with the party on immigration. That will go over like a lead balloon, not just in the primary, but the general.

[Torie]

The subject of this exercise is to suggest vacuum filling names, for a certain wing of the GOP. I take it you don't think Romney and McCain will fill it, much less Rudy. Is that a fair statement? :) In any event, we now have the governor of Arkansas, whom you don't like, but has not ruled out running, and Barbour, who has, as additional names. Is that it?

[fieldmarshaldj]

SC Gov. Mark Sanford would be an intriguing choice. He is practically Libertarian fiscally, and that has pissed off a lot of people in the "establishment."

[southernnorthcarolina]

OK, Condi and Barbour, both of whom said they won't run. It seems that there is nobody who has not said they won't run, that comes to your mind. Is that a fair summary?

Sure, that's a perfectly fair summery, for now.

Jesus, Torie, you sound like a kid in the back seat, on the way to the beach: "Are we there yet?"

Patience! I'll find a nominee for us. But not until I see what the landscape looks like after the elections nine weeks hence.

[Lancey Howard]

I am going to predict right now that the GOP candidate for President in 2008 will be Rudy Giuliani. He is a smart politician, and effective. He will downplay the "culture war" stuff (ie., wax nebulous and make his positions impossible to pin down) and focus on national security and law and order issues. (I am convinced he pragmatically devised most of his positions on guns and abortion in order to get elected Mayor of NYC.)

If Rudy continues to raise money the way he has been and stays true to himself he will emerge as the least polarizing and most electable GOP candidate. He just needs to keep smiling. I can't think of another Republican who is as universally desired for fund-raisers and campaign photo ops by GOP candidates across the nation than Rudy Giuliani. EVERYBODY wants Rudy standing next to them on stage.

[Torie]

Well at least I can understand most of Barbour's words, which was not the case with many Brits, when I was there last month. :)

I became aware of a new accent in Britain, estuary, which is somewhat more incomprehensible to this Yankee, than Cockney, which is tough enough. I was on a boat ride on the Thames, and the chap chatting away on the mike spoke "estuary" English. And then there were this defendants in the criminal court of the Old Baily. Oh my. This one quite articulate chap who I could not understand, who was accused of being involved in a gang war killing, after getting the permission of the the judge (referred to by the barristers present as "my lord," said some guy said "f*ck the whip." The barrister in his Etonian accent and voice (I can understand that accent), asked the defendant if he would enlighten "his lordship" as to what that meant. The defendant complied, and said it meant slash the tires of the car. And there you have it.

[Lancey Howard]

Bookmarked.

[Torie]

Good luck. :) I have already "found" mine, in fact two of them. Ah, it is a veritable feast.

[Torie]

I agree, unless somehow some real dirt comes out on Rudy, or unless a majority of Pubbies are militantly against him, even as he finds favor with 40% of so of the GOP electorate. I doubt that will happen, but politics is an unpredictable sport. Plus Romney is every bit as articulate and smart and charismatic as Rudy, but does not have the resume, or celebrity status.

[Lancey Howard]

Romney is a non-starter.
The country will not elect a Republican from Massachusetts. Never happen.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Liberal Ron Gunzberger's Politics1 website has the following candidates/non-candidates listed:

REPUBLICAN PARTY:

US Senator George Allen (R-Virginia)
US Senator Sam Brownback (R-Kansas)
US Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tennessee)
Former US House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Georgia)
Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani (R-New York)
US Senator Chuck Hagel (R-Nebraska)
Governor Mike Huckabee (R-Arkansas)
US Senator John McCain (R-Arizona)
Governor George Pataki (R-New York)
US Secretary of State Condoleezza "Condi" Rice (R-California)
Governor Mitt Romney (R-Massachusetts)
Congressman Tom Tancredo (R-Colorado)
Former Governor Tommy Thompson (R-Wisconsin)

OTHER REPUBLICANS:
Saint Michael Jesus Archangel (R-Michigan)
John Cox (R-Illinois)

NOT RUNNING:
Governor Haley Barbour (R-Mississippi)
Governor Jeb Bush (R-Florida)
Vice President Richard "Dick" Cheney (R-Wyoming)
Governor Bill Owens (R-Colorado)
Governor Tim Pawlenty (R-Minnesota)
Governor Mark Sanford (R-South Carolina)
US Senator Rick Santorum (R-Pennsylvania)

---

It seems like many of them have downsides, we've already touched on Allen, Brownback, Giuliani, Huckabee, et al. Some of these other names are total non-starters like Pataki and Hagel, both of whom are generally reviled (technically even though Hagel is more Conservative than his DINO seatmate Ben Nelson, a lot of Conservatives have more respect for Nelson). Gingrich is a very intelligent man, but carries way too much baggage. Frist has proven to be a supremely mediocre Majority Leader and most of us here in TN consider his potential presidential run to be snicker-inducing.

Tommy Thompson has not earned much praise for his passing on his badly needed presence in regaining a Senate seat from WI. Tom Tancredo is an interesting candidate, but he'll be crucified (and House members running for President simply don't fly -- and that goes for Mike Pence, too, of whom has pissed off people as of late on the immigration issue).

As for the non-runners listed, I wouldn't mind seeing Jeb succeed Dubya, but the American public probably would as they tend to be averse to dynasties. I'd LOVE to see Cheney as President, but his health is a serious issue, and the media would also rip him apart. Gov. Owens of Colorado was a potential contender 5 years ago, but he has been a disaster and he nearly single-handedly did for the CO Democrat party what William Weld did for Taxachusetts, so he is a total non-starter. As for Rick Santorum, he might be an intriguing choice, but we gotta get him past the finish line for the Senate. Of course, if he loses narrowly, that might give him an excuse to run for President.

[Torie]

I disagree. We shall see. Rudy however is my first choice, Romney second.