On the other hand, Realty Times has just reported:
"Bubble? Regions Housing Market Will Boom in 2006!!
It's unanimous. Experts in the Central Oregon real estate market are predicting another record-breaking year as home and land prices continue to soar with no end in sight. "People ask me if there's going to be a housing bubble in Central Oregon in 2006 and I say yes," said Dana Bratton of Bratton Appraisal Group. "We're going to see home values increase an average of $50,000 to $60,000 in value this year."
Experts, predict a national increase average of 8.9 percent with the local market eclipsing the average. The lack of inventory is driving the marker with the median home price in Bend expected to reach $360,000 before the year ends. Tim Knopp, executive director of the Central Oregon Builders Association, at the annual Real Estate Forecast Breakfast at the Riverhouse said, "The future never looked better for investors, developers, contractors, and real estate agents."
"My No. 1 investment pick is to buy another home in this market," Bratton said. "My top pick is to buy an apartment complex. Apartment construction has been flat for the past three years and the inventory has been reduced. As interest rates continue to go up and more first-time buyers are squeezed out, apartments are going to be more and more attractive. I think you'll see a $50-$75 increase in rents n 2006."
Bratton is also bullish on industrial land investment in Redmond or Prineville where lucrative enterprise zones are attracting new businesses. "Prineville is the No. 1 place where Bend residents are relocating with 242 households moving east," he said. "We've seen the biggest percentage of increase in home sales and lots in Crook County where real estate prices went up 70 percent in 2005." Bratton pointed to the booming downtown Bend retail market and predicted visitors will see four more sky cranes in operation in 2006 at an average rental cost of $1,000 a day. Height Limits have been reduced to 60 feet, and Bratton says the smart money is to sell in downtown Bend.
Light industrial land will continue to sell at a premium with very little inventory remaining in Bend. The migration of light industrial business will continue to push toward Prineville and Redmond with strong job growth in both Cities. "My last tip for everyone is to pool you resources with family and friends, for a partnership, buy a piece of Central Oregon Real Estate, watch the gains and then have a party," he said. Knopp echoed the sentiments of supply and demand for property, particularly in Bend, during his portion of the program. He said there is currently a one or two year inventory of land available in Bend under the Urban Growth Boundary and challenged city officials to expand the boundary by 2007.
"This situation (escalating land prices) was avoidable," he said. "If we have had a true 20-year supply of land, this could have been avoided. The UGB should have been expanded 10 years ago. We need to build a 50-year reserve, annex large tracts of land into the city and hope that prices will eventually level off." Despite the shortage of land, Knopp predicted that 2,000 new homes would enter the Bend market in 2006. " The homebuilder that constructs 5 to 25 units a year is starting to go to Crook and Jefferson counties," he said..."
In other words, current home-owners in Oregon have a lot to be happy about. And renters have a lot to be worried about.
Hmmmm...
Let me guess...
You're a "renter", aren't you?
You are trying to be funny, aren't you? Quoting realtors and appraisers saying, "Buy here! Buy now! Buy! Buy! Buy!" LOL, LOL, LOL. Have you ever been to Prineville, Oregon? I think not. Bend, Oregon is one of the most over valued regions in the U.S. The entire Oregon coast is a
tsunami zone. The coast is famous for one real estate development that was wiped out entirely in the 1930's and
active quake swarms They have signs posted every couple of miles indicating evacuation routes. Most of those houses are right near the beach. But, by all means, if you want to hype Oregon real estate please do so.
I am comfortable quoting from a few posts on a very popular real estate blog. (Ben Jones was just interviewed by Newsweek). Note that these people are saying the same things that I have said. But, they have actually visited the Pacific Northwest.
Just got back from vacation the last week of July. Went to Seattle, Portland, and Vancouver (Canada). I noted a few things:
1) Portland downtown is filled with highrise luxury condo complexes. You can’t take the free streetcar (love that!) more than 1 block without seeing another new highrise. Thing is: Portlanders don’t make that much money. Who is going to live in these $750k condos?
2) Seattle also has condos everywhere. There are lots of luxury towers from the Space Needle all down towards downtown, and then zillions of smaller condo complexes (3-6 stories high) especially throughout Capital Hill and First Hill. For any of you Seattlites wondering if you could have a bubble, I’ll tell you. YES.
3) Then on to Vancouver. The blogger from Vancouver has said this here before, but now I’m inclined to believe. Vancouver may be the biggest bubble market out there. Maybe even more than Phoenix and Las Vegas (yes I know it’s hard to believe). Vancouver downtown is almost all condo towers (I believe it holds the distinction of the only downtown in the world that’s over 70% residential). We saw more cranes in Vancouver than I’ve ever seen. I stood in southeast downtown Vancouver (near Granville Island and the science museum) and looked around and saw 12 cranes. 12!!!!!! I took a picture that had 8 cranes within just a few blocks of me, maybe like 5 blocks or so…. but the pic didn’t turn out. :(
If I recall correctly, Vancouver has about the same population as Portland… but Vancouver’s downtown is at least 10 times bigger. And it’s 5x bigger than Seattle’s. crazy.
But overbuilding wasn’t restrcted to the cities either. (except canada which has different zoning laws). we saw amazing overbuilding in Olympia, Tacoma, and even Vancouver WA. Are they kidding?
The Pacific NW is one of the most overbuilt (silently) areas of the country. Sorry guys.
Clouseau
I’m from Portland originally, and my parents still live there. Downtown has indeed gone condo crazy, but the real fun is out in the burbs. The condo bust started way early out there, like several years ago, from what I recall. They built a light-rail system out to Beaverton and the western suburbs and did zoning stuff so that a whole bunch of condos got built around the light-rail stops. “Smart growth” and all that. Well guess what? No one wanted these crappy little suburban condos, and many of the projects languished, even as SFHs went crazy in the same suburbs. You are dead on about Portlanders not making all that much money, either. There are a lot of California equity refugees, and a few decent large employers there, but nothing that provides huge wealth. One of the saddest parts is that downtown Portland used to be kinda funky and cool–a bit weird and ‘off’ in an artsy way–and all of the overpriced condos and cookie-cutter yuppie businesses that followed made downtown really tacky, plastic, and just plain uninteresting.
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