Posted on 07/28/2006 8:55:35 AM PDT by NormsRevenge
SACRAMENTO – Support for a record $37.3 billion public-works bond package placed on the Nov. 7 ballot by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and the Legislature is slipping as Republicans switch to opposition, according to a new Field Poll.
Bond measures for transportation, schools and flood control still have leads, but a housing bond is trailing. A separate $5.4 billion water and parks bond, placed on the ballot by gathering signatures, also has a lead. After months of negotiations, the governor and the Legislature reached a bipartisan agreement on a massive bond package intended to rebuild California's neglected infrastructure and prepare for population growth.
The Field Poll shows support for all but the school bond measure declining since a similar poll in late May, except the water and parks measure, which was not part of that poll. A notable change is a drop in support among Republicans for the transportation and flood control bonds.
“What we see in many cases is that Republicans have changed their positions,” poll director Mark DiCamillo said. “I think that reflects their caution on the size of the bonds and the level of state debt.”
Results of the poll:
Proposition 1B – $19.9 billion for highway traffic reduction, public transit, air quality and port security – leads 54 percent to 27 percent, down slightly from 57 percent to 24 percent in May.
Democrats are in support, 63 percent to 17 percent, virtually unchanged from May. Republican support is split 39 percent to 38 percent, down sharply from 53 percent to 30 percent. Support among other voters is 61 percent to 28 percent, up from 53 percent to 28 percent.
Proposition 1C – $2.9 billion for low-income housing and shelters for battered women and their children – trails 33 percent to 42 percent, down from a slim lead of 39 percent to 38 percent in May.
Democrat support is 41 percent to 33 percent, down from 50 percent to 24 percent. Republicans oppose the measure 17 percent to 56 percent, down from 25 percent to 58 percent. Other voters support the measure 42 percent to 38 percent, up from 37 percent to 36 percent.
Proposition 1D – $10.4 billion for kindergarten through university school construction and repair – leads 48 percent to 37 percent, little change from 48 percent to 34 percent in May.
Democrats support the measure 58 percent to 26 percent, Republicans oppose 31 percent to 50 percent, and other voters are in support 54 percent to 38 percent.
Proposition 1E – $4.1 billion for flood control and disaster preparedness – leads 47 percent to 33 percent, down from 58 percent to 25 percent in May.
Democrats support it 51 percent to 25 percent, down from 57 percent to 16 percent. Republicans oppose the measure 35 percent to 42 percent, a switch from support 49 percent to 35 percent. Other voters are in support 58 percent to 33 percent, up from 52 percent to 27 percent.
Proposition 84 – $5.4 billion for drinking water, flood control, parks and coastal protection – leads 49 percent to 31 percent in the first Field Poll on the initiative.
Democrats support is 58 percent to 20 percent. Republicans oppose 33 percent to 45 percent. Other voters support 61 percent to 27 percent.
The poll is based on a telephone survey of 384 likely voters conducted July 10 through Sunday. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
Field Poll #2206
http://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/RLS2206.pdf
Political Insiders Hear Wakeup Call On Big Infrastructure Bonds
Bill Bradley
http://www.newwestnotes.com/political-insiders-hear-wakeup-call-on-big-infrastructure-bonds/
As word circulated yesterday of the new Field Poll showing the massive infrastructure bonds package on California's November ballot losing steam, political insiders buzzed about the numbers and what they mean. It’s clear that if Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and legislative Democrats want the infrastructure bonds package to pass, they are going to have to campaign hard for it. This is the post-Proposition 82 Reiner initiative environment, in which voters are more skeptical about seemingly good ideas that cost money.
While some took comfort in the knowledge that opposition to the bonds is not well organized and is unlikely to have major funding, the fact is that all the infrastructure bond initiatives lost ground from two months earlier. And some insiders note that not only did controversial movie director Rob Reiner’s tax-the-rich-for-universal-preschool initiative go down in a June primary election dominated by a Democratic gubernatorial primary contest, so too did a non-controversial bond measure for public libraries, which had no organized opposition.
The Field Poll has the following results on the infrastructure bonds initiatives: Proposition 1B transportation bonds leads, 54% to 27%. Proposition 1C affordable housing bonds trails, 33% to 42%. Proposition 1D education construction bonds leads, 48% to 37%. Proposition 1D, levee repair and disaster preparedness bonds leads, 47% to 33%. All of those initiatives were placed on the ballot by the Legislature and Schwarzenegger. Proposition 84, water and parks bonds, placed on the ballot by environmental groups and endorsed by Schwarzenegger, leads 49% to 31%.
Notably, only the transportation bonds measure has over 50% support. All the others are under 50%, normally a major warning sign with regard to their prospects.
The affordable housing bonds, the one initiative which Schwarzenegger keeps forgetting to mention as he stumps around the state, is in terrible shape with only 33% support. The others could pass, but will all require major campaigns. Even in the absence of a well-funded opposition campaign, as defeat of the library bonds measure in June makes plain.
There is a campaign committee to pass the infrastructure package. However, to date, although a passel of political consultants has been tapped to play roles in running the campaign, no one has actually been formally hired.
Schwarzenegger and legislative leaders, including the Democrats, Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata and Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez, will reportedly meet next week on the matter.
Fundraising is also lagging. With Schwarzenegger focused on his re-election campaign -- he continues to far outstrip his Democratic challenger, Treasurer Phil Angelides -- Perata and Nunez are for now in charge of the funding.
While support for the bonds has really sagged among Republicans, their support levels among independent voters also leaves much to be desired for this point in the election cycle.
What the overwhelming landslide defeat of the Reiner initiative, 61% to 39%, and the shocker though much closer defeat of the library bonds initiative in June demonstrated is that voters have become very wary of expensive ballot measures that don’t provide a core benefit to their lives.
Most Californians do not use public libraries. Most Californians do not have children of preschool age. In addition, as several consultants noted, the state is spending much of its tax revenue windfall on schools, which have also benefited from various bond measures around the state in recent years.
So it is unsurprising that the infrastructure bond measure enjoying the strongest support is the transportation initiative, as most Californians are acutely aware of the need for serious upgrades and expansions to roads and highways and improvements for transit systems. The levee repair and flood management bonds run second best among the measures placed on the ballot by Schwarzenegger and the Legislature as they deal with a clear and present danger. Though that danger will need to be spelled out again for voters in Southern California who are far from the endangered levees in the Northern and Central parts of the state.
In contrast, the bonds for affordable housing look like “social engineering,” as two political advisors put it, nice ideas that will not benefit a majority. The education construction bonds lead, but fare only third best among those placed by the leadership because Californians already feel they are doing a lot for the schools.
The water and parks bonds, separately placed on the ballot by environmental groups after legislative Republicans made it clear their votes were not available, fare fairly well because voters are favorably disposed to promoting environmental protection.
But with support levels even for core concerns such as transportation and levee repair perilously close to the 50% level, even those measures will require active, bipartisan campaigning from Schwarzenegger and his Democratic allies to avoid an embarrassing defeat for the bipartisanship so hailed in the Capitol just a few months ago. They may need to make some hard choices, such as on the affordable housing bonds, in order to ensure victory for the heart of the package.
Sounds good to me -
NO new money for anything until they can prove to us they know how to use what they allready have wisely.
Agreed, that and a state spending and hiring freeze would be in order, imo, as well.
2:27 Market Snapshot: U.S. stocks rally; Dow targets best week in over three years
My 401k ain't been doing too good since the end of the first quarter.
And Californians need to quit borrowing money. Maybe for building new freeways or widening them, but I don't know why getting slapped by your husband entitles you to government housing. Get a restraining order and kick his sorry butt out of the house.
From the Legislative Analysts Office:
November, 2006
An Overview of State Bond Debt
Try to stay on subject, will ya? (are ya tryin ta be like me?)(smirk)(I din't think so...)
...and pay cuts for state employees, but raises for legislative staff.
>> ...legislative staff.
lol. The bums!
Senator Tom McClintock on Two Ballot Propositions
This November, California voters will be asked to take action on more than a dozen ballot propositions. Here is Senator Tom McClintock’s position on the two transportation-related issues.
Prop. 1A Transportation Funding Protection: YES! For years, the Legislature has raided our highway taxes for general fund spending. Though it’s more window dressing than relief, this measure makes it marginally harder to do so.
Prop. 1B Transportation Bond: NO! Although some of this money is for long overdue road construction, most goes for equipment, maintenance and social programs that will be obsolete decades before our children have finished paying off the debt. Californians pay the third highest tax per gallon of gasoline in the country – and yet we rank 43rd in per capita spending on highways. Our neglected roads are not the taxpayers’ fault.
Yet another issue upon which I and the honorable Senator McClintock disagree.
Yet another issue upon which I and the honorable Senator McClintock disagree.
Yeah, me too. I'll be voting NO on Prop 1A. I think it's totally window-dressing (smoke and mirros) AND it lets them defer all prior borrowed monies for a longer time period. Under existing law, all monies need to be paid back by 2009. Prop 1A extends it to 2016.
LAO: "In addition, the measure lays out a new schedule to repay the Proposition 42 suspensions that occurred in 2003‑04 and 2004‑05. Specifically, the suspended amounts must be repaid and dedicated to transportation uses no later than June 30, 2016, at a specified minimum annual rate of repayment."
Bingo.
As Senator McClintock points out, there are many aspects to Prop 1A.
The hidden agenda behind Prop 1A, for the governing class, is not infrastructure improvement but rather rescheduling debt payments to meet the demands of the bond market ... to facilitate borrowing in excess of 6% of spending.
The infrastructure ploy is simply window dressing that conveniently lines the pockets of major donors to both parties. Senator McClintock is well aware of these facts but, alas, he is also committed to remaining a significant influence in the governing class
You get an A gal.
Your observation is a logical answer to the public quandary suggested by Mr. Walters today.
I didn't understand Walter's comments about "puzzlement". Since when have democrats turned down billions in spending? The fact that the deferrals in Prop 1A will free up even more for the General fund between now and 2009 was just icing on the cake.
Why thank you, sir! Would it be pushing it to ask for a star, too? ;-)
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