Posted on 07/14/2006 4:24:34 PM PDT by SJackson
NEW DELHI: Israel's offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon and its backers in Syria on Thursday has left policy-makers here scratching their heads because India has enormous political, economic and strategic stakes in the right power balance in the region.
As oil and gold surged northwards in the international markets, the fear is that the Middle East crisis might hit India where it hurts.
The bottomline for India's position is clear: The situation should be controlled and not allowed to escalate. There, at least, the UPA government is on safe ground.
It is on nuancing its policy in the Middle East that the government will once again find its foreign policy constrained by vote politics in India.
After Hezbollah fired rockets into the Israeli city of Haifa, Israel extended its air raids into Lebanon on Thursday. India joined the rest of the world community in criticising Israel's acts of bombing Beirut airport and other civilian targets in Lebanon.
Israeli jets also bombed the highway between Beirut and Damascus, the action piling up civilian casualties in Lebanon and Syria.
However, India will have to "balance" its criticism of Israel because it's impossible not to condemn the Hezbollah action of abducting Israeli soldiers.
The abduction (and possible torture) of the soldiers will remind the Indian establishment of the abduction by Pakistan of five of its own soldiers during the Kargil conflict, and what followed: Pakistan returned the bodies weeks later, tortured and mutilated.
There is no way any government in India can look the other way on soldier abductions by extremists. Equally, in the wake of Tuesday's Mumbai blasts by possible Islamic terrorists, Manmohan Singh's government cannot possibly criticise the "firm" action by Israel against fundamentalist elements in the region.
Neither Hezbollah nor Hamas represent forces in the Middle East that India is comfortable doing business with, and even if it doen't articulate it in as many words, the foreign office is very clear on this score.
And India wants to do a lot of business in that region. Described as India's economic hinterland, the government has re-energised India's stakes in the region, with free trade deals, investment, political and energy connections and most important — the adopted home to millions of Indian diaspora.
The last is more attractive to a growing Indian economy, given the voluminous remittances that are holding up India's $163 billion forex reserves.
But the flip side of the coin is where the government's difficulties lie. Criticising actions of the extremist Hezbollah and Hamas opens it to charges of being anti-Muslim and at a time when the Congress is actively courting the Muslim vote in UP, this will be the proverbial hot potato for the government.
Although the PM has said that he doesn't really believe in the existence of a Muslim vote-bank, senior Congress managers do.
They also subscribe to the theory that India's actions vis-a-vis other Muslim nations affects Indian Muslims — a theory that is alarmingly similar to the argument that is put forward by hardliners and which has gained strength after many Muslims turned their back on Congress in Assam and Kerala polls.
Their annoyance with Congress was perceived to be a retaliation against UPA government's attempt to strengthen the "strategic engagement" with the US and its stand against a nuclear-armed Iran.
India's instinctive reaction to the escalating crisis in the Middle East is to duck — and let events take care of themselves. But as India seeks and assumes a more "responsible power" position in the world, its room for foreign policy, ostrich-style, is fast diminishing.
As the days go on, India's "balance" will be delicately positioned, and it will take all its diplomatic skills to avoid taking sides in this war.
On the one hand, India finds it difficult to accept the Iranian reaction, which is swiftly joining forces with the Hezbollah and Hamas in the region.
On the other, India drew comfort from its new strategic friend in the region, Saudi Arabia. No friend of Israel, the kingdom on Thursday lashed out at the "uncalculated adventures" of the Hezbollah
High Volume. Articles on Israel can also be found by clicking on the Topic or Keyword Israel.
also Keywords 2006israelwar or WOT [War on Terror]
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Ok, here's the cold hard facts and the bottom line truth on terrorism and the Middle East. Islam is the root of terrorism. Any state in the middle east that aligns itself with Islam, and is not making an extraordinary effort to root it out is, IMO, a terrorist supporting state. Any state that has been affected by terrorism has the right and the responsibility to remove any government in the Middle East that is not creating extremely hostile environments for terrorists. As of now, if we were to list the Middle Eastern countries that qualify for attack under such criteria, it would include virtually every one of them. This is not a war about terrorism anymore. It is simply and truthfully a war of Islam against the rest of the world.
While the United States and Western Europe were codling these Muslims over the last 70-80 years, they have been plotting their imminent rise to power and plan for a new Islamic crusade. Of course, the rest of the world still doesn't get it, as many in this country don't get it. It is sad and will lead to the eventual decent into full scale World War. The only good thing that will come of it, however, is the subsequent demise of Islamic regimes; I hope.
We're a long way, probably several adminisrations, from adopting that point of view. Presuming the jihadis aren't foolish enough to unleash attacks in the US. Which I wouldn't presume. Hamas and Hizbollah are active here, and cells are known to act on their own.
I would rather see India declare support for Israel and at the same time declare that it would take any political interruption in its energy supplies as an act of war. The same with Japan, who has zero oil of its own but many long-term contracts it should expect to be fulfilled, regardless of its position on Hizbolla and Israel.
BUMP!ping.
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