Schwarzenegger Strategy Unfolds: (Define Phil As Unacceptable, Gub As Different Kind Of Republican)

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s strategy against Democratic challenger Phil Angelides continues to unfold, off the air and on, as a new private poll by a major pollster unaffiliated with either campaign shows Schwarzenegger in the lead, 49 percent to 39 percent. The poll of nearly a thousand likely voters was completed last week.

While Schwarzenegger works to translate his increased job approval among Latinos into electoral support and puts together a plan to revive the prison system, his all-important TV advertising strategy marches on across the airwaves around the state. His strategy is working. The four-point lead he enjoyed in mid-June in a private poll by a major Democratic pollster became a seven-point lead the first public poll of the general election, from San Jose State University, completed at the end of last month. His 10-point lead, in a new poll for a statewide organization, shows him moving into a position similar to that which he enjoyed in the 2003 recall election. Then he had a quarter of the Democratic vote; in this poll he has 23 percent.

What is the strategy he is pursuing that is relentlessly moving him in this direction?

It seems evident that Team Arnold wants to define Angelides as an unacceptable alternative while it continues to define Schwarzenegger as a different kind of Republican. One quite unlike, in other words, President George W. Bush. The Angelides camp seems to regard making Arnold equate to W as its ace in the hole. They certainly need something, because Schwarzenegger and his team are deftly denying them the four issue areas Democrats have used to shatter Republican campaigns of the past: Choice, guns, the environment, and tobacco.

What Schwarzenegger is doing to Angelides now is in a time honored tradition of successful gubernatorial re-election campaigns. Some Democratic partisans insist that nothing that is happening now matters, even as Angelides’ post-primary momentum died aborning and Schwarzenegger’s edge increased.

The truth is that the months immediately after the primary election are very important. The old idea that the general election does not really begin until Labor Day is very old indeed.

In 1978, Jerry Brown pivoted after ending up on the losing end of Proposition 13 and quickly defined his Republican opponent, Attorney General Evelle Younger, as a do-nothing politician before romping home to a 20-point landslide victory. In 1986, Democrat Tom Bradley never had much of a chance against George Deukmejian.

In 1994, Republican Pete Wilson trailed Brown’s sister, Kathleen Brown. He began advertising against her in the primary, on illegal immigration. While her campaign focused on winning a Democratic primary it already had in the bag, Wilson overtook her in private polling even before the primary election took place. He continued to define her as being out of step immediately after the primary and rolled to an easy victory in the fall.

In 2002, Gray Davis, like Wilson before him, began attacking his principal Republican opponent, Dick Riordan, in the primary. So successful were the attacks that Davis wrecked Riordan with his own primary voters. He then began attacking nominee Bill Simon a few days after the primary, and continued “defining” him right up until the November election.

This is precisely what Schwarzenegger is doing now to Angelides, who like every other challenger after a rugged, draining primary, does not have the resources to respond.

Schwarzenegger is defining Angelides as a big taxer and someone with an environmentally suspect record from his land developer past. For now he is using TV ads financed by the California Republican Party, which can raise money in much bigger chunks, to accomplish this. And he is doing it with ads featuring the comments of Angelides’ narrowly defeated Democratic primary rival, eBay honcho-turned-state Controller Steve Westly.

Westly, for his part, is helping Angelides with some general appearances and with the Central Valley, Silicon Valley, and Asian-American constituencies. But he will not write a big check for a pro-Angelides effort.

There have been two TV ads in the Westly series so far, and there are more. Another TV ad, not yet aired, goes after Angelides as a classic career insider politician, part of a corrupt status quo. This sets up the veteran politician and former state Democratic chairman for future attacks on doing favors for big contributors.

The Westly series does not seem likely to continue after the summer, which is also the life span of the party ads. The party can continue to run “issue advocacy” TV spots helping Schwarzenegger, indistinguishable from official campaign ads save for the request for a vote, until 45 days before the November 7th general election. This coincides with the beginning of autumn.

After that, Schwarzenegger is back to his own campaign warchest, which currently dwarfs Angelides’. And probably to other independent expenditure campaigns, especially if Angelides’ allies have such ventures underway then.

The governor would reportedly prefer to focus his campaign efforts after Labor Day on campaigning in positive, bipartisan mode, emphasizing his efforts to build California’s future through the massive infrastructure bonds package. If he has this sort of lead then, which is not altogether unlikely, he may have that opportunity.

Then his advertising can pick up on the positive thread of advertising being run for him by the party, that he is moving things forward after the necessary evil of the recall and that he is an intrinsically different sort of Republican from Bush. The environment is the key symbolic differentiator with Bush, which is a major reason why it is receiving such big play now in Schwarzenegger’s advertising, which it never did before even when the former Mr. Universe was making very different policy moves from those of the president.

... a new private poll ... shows Schwarzenegger in the lead, 49 percent to 39 percent.

... His 10-point lead, in a new poll for a statewide organization, shows him moving into a position similar to that which he enjoyed in the 2003 recall election. Then he had a quarter of the Democratic vote; in this poll he has 23 percent.

Fantastic! If he keeps moving leftward, he can capture 100% of the Democratic vote!

Keep in mind, There are more of them now than in the Recall and more active,, especially since FRances Busby let illegals know,,

You Don't Need No Stinkin' Papers to Vote!!

This week, he'll be pandering to La Raza dems to vote for him. He just appointed David Lopez to the Dept of Education today.

Dr. David P. Lopez and Gov. Schwarzenegger
at the 2006 National Council of La Raza Annual Conference in Los Angeles, CA.

http://www.dailynews.com/news/ci_4034732

Arnold forms Latino group
Governor hopes to boost support
BY HARRISON SHEPPARD, Sacramento Bureau

SACRAMENTO - Looking to boost his support among a growing segment of the electorate, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger will announce today the formation of a new coalition of Latino supporters.

Schwarzenegger is trying to counter some negative perceptions he has generated among some prominent members of the Latino community who disagree with his stances on illegal immigration and other issues.

"This is an opportunity for Hispanic leaders to come together and show their support for the governor and his strong record on issues important to our community," said Arnoldo Torres, a Schwarzenegger campaign adviser. "The governor has made improving the economy, investing in education, protecting public safety, increasing access to health care and building the California of the future his priority."

(snip)

On the environment, Arnold is just as liberal as Angelides. This has neutralized a potent Democratic issue. Arnold is a very different sort of Republican - a liberal RINO and like George Pataki in New York State, he will probably romp in the fall to a landslide reelection victory.

(The Palestinian terrorist regime is the crisis and Israel's fist is the answer.)

He doesn't need to capture all the Democrats. But if he can hold a quarter of their vote, the election's in the bag. Angelides looks like a teacher's pet and by the time the Governator's machine is through with him, Angelides' own mother wouldn't vote for him. He's being defined as an out of the mainstream Democrat even for liberal California. Angelides' is just in favor of taxes and spending. To have a chance, he has to demonstrate he's a different kind of Democrat. Instead, with his comments on gay marriage, he ran true to form. This is what the Democrats get when they nominate someone who pleases primary voters as opposed to a candidate who can win a general election.

(The Palestinian terrorist regime is the crisis and Israel's fist is the answer.)

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