The 4 T's in '06 House Battle

Real Clear Politics ^ | June 30, 2006 | By Larry Sabato and David Wasserman

[TSchmereL]

"the current heat level places the Crystal Ball's best House estimate in the area of a 6-8 seat Democratic gain."

[TSchmereL]

Don't bother reading the article to try and figure out how Larry Sabato and David Wasserman arrived at their estimate. It isn't there. Just take their word for it. It has something to do with how they measure "heat."

[stylin19a]

i shudda listened to ya...yikes.

[LS]

Sabato was so far off in 2004 it is pathetic that he still gets any press. I was MUCH, MUCH closer in both the Bush victory, MOV, and in the Senate races. I called EVERY Senate race (competitive races---I didn't bother with runaways) correctly except CO (a narrow win for the Dem). I had Bush at 300 EVs, off only really by PA which I put in his column. Sabato had Kerry winning and missed every one of the close races.

We will pick up one Senate seat (net) and one to five House seats. But if this USSC business and the illegals stuff keeps up, we could gain two to three seats in the Senate and 5-10 in the House.

[seasoned traditionalist]

Sabato is definitely a lib.

Nuff said

[JCEccles]

Stuart Rothenberg is usually accurate and generally even-handed. I put more stock in his predictions than I do in any of Sabato's wild-eyed push-projections on behalf of the Democratic Party.

[LS]

I'm just doing this from memory, but I don't think ANY of the so-called "experts" had the % of correct calls in the close Senate races that I did. Someone said Ras had a really good record last time---that may be true, but I was badly burned by Ras in 2000, and it will take a LOT of correct calls for him to again have my confidence. But I do know that in 2002, I called every close Senate race (including Allard in CO) except Thune (who lost by 500 votes). In 2004, I called them all right except CO.

The reason these guys are so far off is that they have not taken into account of Dem "voter registration" the incredible numbers of voters in blue states who have left due to the declines in pop in those states.

[austinaero]

??"of a 6-8 seat Democratic gain" - oh, got it. For a minute I thought they were talking about how many more seats it was going to take to house Big Teddy's butt!

[spintreebob]

Let's start calling Nov 2006
IL - 19 seats.
R-McSweeney beats D-Bean-incumbent in 8th.
R-Roskam beats D-Duckworth to replace Hyde in 6th.
D beats R to replace Evans in 17th.
Other 16 districts, incumbent wins.
Net Gain 1 for Republicans.

[LS]

Hayworth holds, two OH seats, Pryce and Chabot, hold (Ney may be in trouble); both CT seats hold; NM holds; Shaw holds; Gerlach holds; Hotstetler loses in IN; Marshall (DEM, GA) loses; so that's +1 by my count. If Bean loses and Roskam wins, that's +2.

[spintreebob]

Which customized IL Dem district do Supremes most like? The Scorpion of the 17th or the calipers of Gutierrez?

[jmaroneps37]

larrie, you're a liberal phony who is wrong as often as little dick morris.

[AdvisorB]

Sabato won the "Zogby" Trophy for being simultaneously the most biased and erroneously inexact pollster of 2004. I think Zogby shared the 2004 award trophy with the ladylike larry.

[Coop]

PA-12: Irey defeats Murtha

[TheGeezer]

Do you read Jay Cost at RCP?

[LS]

Jay is why I concluded in 2004 that not only would Bush win, but all the senate candidates in the close states would win. The #s were just obvious.

[TheGeezer]

Costs's analyses seem very reasonable, especially to one like myself who is naive statistically. I think each likes to consider oneself politically sophisticated, but personal prejudices interfere with realistic appraisals. I cross my fingers and hope, in other words. Jay Cost has been dead on, almost prescient, in his prognostications.

I appreciate your confirmation of my assessment of Cost. That helps reduce the bourbon bill as November approaches.

[SW6906]

What do you know/believe about the Cantwell(D)/McGavick(R) Senate race in WA state?

[LS]

All I know is that a) McGavick has a lot of Rossi's people on his staff, and they ran a helluva governor's race (actually won); b) Cantwell is low in all the polls; and c) there is a lot of residual anger against the Dems over the governor's race.