Posted on 06/08/2006 7:23:40 PM PDT by LdSentinal
After a Republican victory in the hotly contested House runoff election, political analysts are pointing to a single sentence in a campaign ad as a key factor in the final days of the race.
Democrat Francine Busby, accused during the campaign of taking a soft line on illegal immigration, was told by a man at a largely Hispanic rally that he wanted to help her campaign but didn't have voting papers. The man spoke in Spanish through an interpreter.
Busby responded in English: "Everybody can help. You can all help. You don't need papers for voting, you don't need to be a registered voter to help."
The comment was recorded by members of the Minutemen civilian border patrol and sent to Republican election workers, talk radio programs and conservative Web sites.
A few days later, it was condensed to, "You don't need papers for voting," in a campaign ad for Republican Brian Bilbray, who went on to win the election to replace disgraced former Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham.
"We'll never know exactly what the impact was, but the Bilbray campaign and the national Republicans really went to work with it," said pollster John Nienstedt of Competitive Edge Research in San Diego.
"If there were people on the fence at that late hour, the majority of them probably went to Bilbray," Nienstedt said.
Immigration was a touchstone issue in the heavily Republican district just 30 miles north of the Mexican border.
Bilbray took a hardline stance, supporting House legislation that would make illegal immigration a felony. He repeatedly accused Busby of being soft on immigration after she backed a Senate bill that would allow many illegal immigrants to eventually apply for citizenship.
Polls showed the candidates in a dead heat heading toward Election Day, fueling speculation that Busby might pull off an upset. Bilbray won Tuesday by just four points, taking 49 percent of the vote.
Busby's comment at the rally sliced through a campaign cluttered with negative attacks.
Minutemen volunteers were there and provided a recording of the exchange to fellow member Anthony Porrello, who e-mailed it to GOP operatives in Washington and local conservative talk show host Roger Hedgecock.
"I just tried to get it out into the public's hands," said Porrello, who provided The Associated Press with a full recording of the remarks at the rally.
Hedgecock posted the comments on his Web site last Friday. By Saturday, the comments appeared at the top of the conservative Drudge Report Web site. Voters received automated calls telling them, "Francine Busby was caught on tape encouraging illegal aliens to vote in our elections."
By Monday, the day before the election, conservative commentator Rush Limbaugh was discussing the issue on his national radio show.
The radio ad sponsored by the national Republican Party said, "Francine Busby's position? Government handouts for illegal immigrants, and 'you don't need papers for voting.'"
At best, Bilbray said, Busby was encouraging illegal immigrants to volunteer on her behalf. At worst, she was recruiting illicit voters, he said.
"It raises ethics questions," he said before the election.
Busby said she was trying to encourage high school students too young to vote and people who weren't registered to get involved in the political process.
"I do not support anyone who is here illegally voting or working on campaigns," she said at the time.
Carl Luna, a political scientist at Mesa College, said campaigns can turn on a single comment.
"A gaffe like that is a godsend to the other side," he said.
"And this was almost a caricature of the worst fears of illegal immigrants coming to threaten us — something that resonated for voters without requiring any explanation by the Republican campaign," Luna said.
NO!?!?!?
I just hope that that sound bite is played day and night through November...
Is the minuteman candidate going to run in November? That would be another 5 percentage points.
If that remark swung just 2% of the vote then it cost Busby the election, as well it should have. Busby is a third-rate candidate and this was her high-water mark. There's still the formality of November's vote, but you can stick a fork in her, if you're willing to get that close.. :)
Yeah, this the only truthful statement made by the Democrat candidate.
If the Republicans had half a brain they would get their vote.
Yes, William Griffith has also filed for the November general election. So did the Libertarian guy, Paul King. However, now there will be a radical lefty Peace & Freedom candidate too, Miriam Clark, who'll probably get a percent or two from Busby.
I think her message got through OK.
I don't recall hearing much in the MSM about the result of this race. You can bet if the Dem had won we'd be hearing about it until November and beyond.
The minutmen are performing a valuable service indeed!
I saw this coming after the election was called:
To: RWR8189
The blessing of Botox (r) is that Ms Pelosi's face won't show the disappointment tomorrow.
Pity though that the win will be simply written off in tomorrow's analysis as a democrat own-goal, a winning race lost by a "foot in mouth illegal immigrant without papers voting" moment.
8 posted on 06/07/2006 3:04:52 AM PDT by tlb
Yep, the message of the Democrats gets through just fine. They just don't understand that voters don't always elect them. They just can't understand how uninspiring a candidate John Kerry was against Bush. They can't believe that the people preferred Bush. So they look to blame it on voting problems and keep trying to say Ohio was like Florida and had voting problems that tipped the election.
Yep, the message of the Democrats gets through just fine. They just don't understand that voters don't always elect them. They just can't understand how uninspiring a candidate John Kerry was against Bush. They can't believe that the people preferred Bush. So they look to blame it on voting problems and keep trying to say Ohio was like Florida and had voting problems that tipped the election.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.