Saudi Oil Output Cut Clue to High Prices

Rigzone.com ^ | June 06, 2006 | David Bird

[thackney]

Well I know for a fact that the US imports gasoline from South Korea into the US west coast.

Yes, on average since 2004 we get 4,000 barrels per day from South Korea, about 1/2,500 of the gasoline we use.

U.S. Imports by Country of Origin, Finished Motor Gasoline

Where does that oil come from? Most likely a place like Indonesia.

[defenderSD]

I don't know what to make of those gasoline import statistics for South Korea. They look like official US government statistics, but I think they are incorrect. They look very low compared to other articles I've read. Those stats say we're importing more gasoline from Lithuania than from South Korea...lol. Here's an article from May 2004 on Bloomberg that says we imported a million barrels of gasoline from South Korea in April of 2004. I would think today we're importing just as much, but I'll have to do some more research.

[thackney]

I don't know what to make of those gasoline import statistics for South Korea. They look like official US government statistics, but I think they are incorrect.

I have a lot of faith in the data from the Energy Information Administration. It is part of the Department of Energy. It's data come from very reliable sources at it is used for taxes and import levies. The EIA is widely referenced by many reporting agencies and publications.

My guess, and only a guess, is that this report published May 4th was written in April. When it states last month, the author was probably talking about March, not April. In April there was ~1,000,000 gallons deliveried. I suspect somewhere the data was converted from barrels into gallons twice. The article states "South Korean gasoline exports to the U.S. west coast soared last month", this was not a normal import level. The the average over a year or two does not come close to this level.

But I would like to see any other data you come across.

[defenderSD]

I'm getting curious about his now, so I'll have to look into it some more. A million gallons of gasoline is almost nothing these days--that wouldn't even begin to fill up a modern tanker. Nobody would even bother shipping such a small amount of gasoline. Don't those tanker ships hold about 500,000 barrels now? That number is the capacity that I recall.

I would bet that the imports from SK in April, 2004 referenced in the Bloomberg article were 1 million barrels of gasoline (same as the 43 million gallons mentioned in teh article). That is still not very much for the US, since we consume 17 million barrels per day. I'll bet imports from SK are up to at least 2 million barrels per month by now. I'll see what I can dig up on this.

[thackney]

Nobody would even bother shipping such a small amount of gasoline.

Maybe not usually, but it does happen. I recommend taking a quick look at the Explanatory Notes then look at the data.

Company Level Imports, March 2006, all petroleum products.

Shipments may not be a complete tanker, perhaps a partial filled tanker from Indonesia hauling crude stops at South Korea on the way to the US West Coast. Fills a compartment or two with gasoline for transport. But I am only guessing here, this is outside of my experience.

[thackney]

I'm getting curious about his now, so I'll have to look into it some more. A million gallons of gasoline is almost nothing these days

Although the numbers still don't match the article, I messed up the math. I was off by a factor of 10. If, according to EIA, March 2004 we received an average of 9,000 barrels per day from South Korea that (x 30 days x 42 gallons per barrel) equals 11,340,000 gallons for the month. Still not the amount from the article but a little more believable for shipping. We also received other petroleum products in the same time period. An average of 20,000 barrels per day. Shipments likely carried products such as Kerosene in separate compartments.