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To: Dog
The Mullahs ain't stupid.

Then why persue nukes? They have to know the US and Israel won't let it happen. I have no idea if we know where Bin Laden is, or not. My instinct tells me we have a pretty good idea, but cannot act on it for various reasons:

1) It would expose intelligence assets.
2) If he's in Pakistan, action would damage the relations with Musharraf and risk conflict with an Islamic nuclear nation.
3) If he's in Iran, action there would risk having an unsettled Iraqi Shia turn on American forces. It may also galvanize nationalists in Iran to support the current regime.
4) The intelligence is there, but the CIA's credibility is tenuous after Tenet's "slam dunk" claim.

16 posted on 05/28/2006 5:52:20 PM PDT by edpc
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To: edpc

persue = pursue


17 posted on 05/28/2006 5:53:20 PM PDT by edpc
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To: edpc
If he was in Iran (and we knew it) we'd talk that up seven ways to Sunday (believe it).

Furthermore we do have a good idea of his general whereabouts.....but when one understands the terrain of the Pak border region we are discussing that doesn't do much good in actually killing him -

Understand the Stan / Pak border region stretches over 1,500 miles lone which includes every landscape from desert to snow-capped mountains.

There is no need for UBL to put himself at the mercy of the Mullah's of Iran (a group he has never got along with)...no the Pak border region provides all the security he needs in comparison.

Time was on his side in the short run....but that variable is moving back in our direction now....we've put the sweat equity along with spilling the blood needed for it to do so. We'll put guns on him one of these days.

22 posted on 05/28/2006 7:13:55 PM PDT by SevenMinusOne
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