Posted on 05/05/2006 5:25:05 PM PDT by Amerigomag
Federal lobbyist and former Congressman Brian Bilbray, the Republican, is LOSING to liberal school teacher Francine Busby, the Democrat in a “safe” GOP seat as conservatives nationally, and in this coastal San Diego County district are fed up with ‘big government’ Republicanism.
I just got off of the phone with Bill Hauf. The overwhelming majority of FR readers will be unfamiliar with who that is – Hauf is one of the conservative candidates who ran in the large field to replace ‘Duke’ Cunningham in Congress. Hauf, who ran a principled campaign on the issues, didn’t fare as well as he would have liked. But he was proud that nearly 70% of the votes that went to Republicans were cast for conservative/reform candidates. Of course, Brian Bilbray who is a liberal-moderate Republican, who one with about 15% of the vote, now has to consolidate Republicans and decline-to-state voters behind him for the special election run-off on June 6th.
A lot of conservatives in the 50th District have been worried about whether Bilbray can win in June, but Hauf took his concern one step further. Hauf actually commissioned a survey from Bob Moore of Moore Information, a very reputable pollster, who conducted 450 interviews in the district. The results were quite disturbing. I have actually attached a memo provided to me by Hauf from Moore, so you can read it yourself.
But the highlights of the survey conclusions were:
* In the race to fill the vacancy, Francine Busby leads Brian Bilbray 43-37% among all voters, with each of the minor party candidates getting 1%, 5% voting for none of the candidates and 13% undecided.
* In the GOP primary for the regular term, Republican Brian Bilbray is the frontrunner. Eric Roach is his nearest opponent today, trailing Bilbray. None of the other candidates gets over 5% in this 10-way test.
* In two informed general election match up tests, Roach does better than Bilbray against Busby.
(Check out the attached survey summary page by clicking through the attachment below.)
When I asked Hauf his thoughts on having gotten this information back in the survey he told me, “I’m afraid that Mr. Bilbray is going to lose this seat and the Democrats are going to win. I think we have only a short period of time to figure out how we are going save this seat for the Republican Party.”
Hauf went on to say, “I commissioned this survey to find out whether I could mount campaign to keep this seat in the GOP column. I looked to see if I would be viable as a candidate who could win – but what I concluded from the survey is that Eric Roach is the only possible candidate that would be able to win not only the primary in June but the general election against Francine Busby in November."
FR readers need to remember that this is a split ballot, and voters will first choose between Bilbray and Roach to fill out the unexpired remainder of Cunningham’s term, and then they will vote in the regular June primary. Every candidate who ran in the special is listed on that ballot, including Hauf, including Roach.
Right now, Eric Roach, who came in second in the crowded field by 1% or so (and by some thoughts, he may have actually won the pure GOP vote as this special was an ‘open primary’ where Democrats may have crossed over to vote for Bilbray, a lobbyist, as he would have been their choice to face Busby) is looking very closely at making a run for this seat.
Based on this survey, Roach can add one more important item to his “reasons to run” list – the Republican Party needs him. Without a conservative on the June ballot, where there are no notable contested GOP primaries in most of the district, the party stands a good chance of losing this seat.
I’ve spent time with Roach, and he is exactly the kind of candidate we need to instill energy, enthusiasm and pride in the conservative voters that live in this district. If you look at this survey on MSNBC, you can see that nationally we have a big problem with conservatives. Roach can bring these conservatives to the polls. Otherwise, we may be looking at a GOP loss in a so-called “safe” seat.
Attachment: CD 50 Survey by Moore Information
Disturbing, but maybe not so surprising. If Bilbray loses the special, it will be because he couldn't motivate mainstream Conservatives to vote (pointing once again to why runoffs are absolutely essentially to avoiding the most liberal RINOs from winning with fractional pluralities).
And just to reiterate again, for the GOP voters in this district, remember to vote Bilbray for the short and Roach for the long.
That is crap. FrashPoint is backing Roach and Bilbray has this won. He only will lose if those who go along with FlashPoint sit out the election or write in Roach who will lose anyways.
It looks like FlashPoint wants the far left Democrat to win to spite Bribray.
Looks like another fluster cuck in the making.
None of the GOP candidates in that district were very inspiring. I was for state Senator Bill Morrow, who should have been the favorite. But he's a dull campaigner.
I liked special K.
But remember CA voters, Bilbray on the short, Roach on the long. We got to keep this seat.
That's a tough sell on a conservative forum.
nearly 70% of the votes (on the Republican side of the run off election) that went to Republicans were cast for conservative/reform candidates .... Brian Bilbray who is a liberal-moderate Republican, who won with about 15% of the vote,
I was similarly backing Howard Kaloogian. Ideally, this contest should've been between him and Morrow, but just turned into a big damn mess.
If Busby is ahead 43%-37% with 13% undecided, I think Bilbray will win, especially if conservatives turn out to vote for Roach in the primary.
Any conservative who doesn't vote for Bilbray in the special run-off is an idiot. Bilbray won't be able to use his incumbent status to defeat Roach in the primary for November's election, given that the primary takes place simultaneously with the special run-off. I encourage all conservatives who live in the 50th Congressional District to go vote on June 6 and to vote for Bilbray in the run-off against Busby but to vote for Roach in the primary for November's election.
I know, but it's only for a 6-month stint. It's also to avoid allowing the 'Rats to score a moral victory in a GOP seat.
Any Republican candidate who wants to win anywhere, had better come out STRONG on getting the Illegal invasion under control: closing the borders, shipping those here home, stopping anchor babies, no free benefits, etc. A lot of people are looking for candidates with backbones on that issue alone.
A real dilemma for conservatives. Conservatives well understand that you can't defeat a liberal by voting for him.
Thankfully I don't live in the 50th. First a crook and now a liberal. It can only get worse if a socialist wins.
The Calif. GOP is about as useless as nipples on men.
Sounds like this FlashPoint has a few FR accounts.
Bilbray may not be a 100% conservative but as a native here in San Diego I remember when Bilbray was a Board of Supervisor and in Congrress the first time.
He was one of the early border alert people. I know those who don't like him want the illegals to keep coming but I
would rather see Bilbray win as I am not in favor of the illegals.
Bingo ... therein lies the problem.
The CRP never should have let Brian Bilbray win that runoff. The CRP sat on their hands during the recall and they did it again during the run off in the 50th. The result is that California has another liberal governor and the best that California conservatives can achieve is another liberal congressman for 7 months.
The CRP is in need of a major overhaul. One more election cycle under the current leadership and the CRP will become insignificant in California politics.
False. Twelve or so of the 14 original candidates will be on the primary ballot.
Trust me, the Illinois GOP ain't far behind.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.