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Sorry, for taking so long to get back to you. The common ethnic heritage of what today are the peoples of the separate entities of Serbia and Montenegro is well known. But that is not the issue. The issue is the case for Montenegrin independence. Historically, Montenegro was an independent kingdom right up through the end of WWI and it was a separate republic of Yugoslavia (under its various names) for much of the time since them. Demographically, many of the people now living there self-identify themselves as Montenegrins, not Serbs. Legally, the upcoming referendum on independence is an action conducted in consonance with the agreement with which Serbia and Montenegro are joined. Internationally, there is agreement to recognize the results of the referendum. In sum, there is no reason why Montenegro should not be independent if that is what the people want. And we will know the answer to that in a couple days.

The fact that Montenegro has had a statehood as a nation is not the issue. Texas used to be a country separate from the United States while populated by people who were white Americans. Old Montenegrin passports clearly identified the owner as a Montenegrin citizen of Serbian nationality: it recognized two legitimate, internationally recognized states made up of one and the same nation/tribe: Montenegro and Serbia. Montenegrins have solidly identified themselves as Serbs all the way up to and including the end of WWII.

Serbs inside of Serbia have always been identified as Serbians, and not as Serbs. Only recently, due to incredible illiteracy and western media infuence, have the two been "fused" into one.

King Nikola I of Montenegro used to say: All Montenegrins are Serbs, but not all Serbs are Montenegrins. In other words: all Texans are Americans, but not all Americans are Texans.

If this were the case, if the Montenegrins simply wanted back their statehood, a separate Serb state, to which they have every right, and to which their Petrovich family dynastic heir is entitled, that would be one thing. One could make a case for it. I would imagine that one could make a case for California or Texas to become separate countries too. I would have no problem with either.

The problem is that Montenegro is being re-created on a lie that Montenegrins are not Serbs, but some unknown ethnic people, and this referendum will legitimize such lie (to the detriment of Montenegrins in the long run).

Tito's communists insisted that Montenegrins were not Serbs on some Bolshevik pseudo-science and with a clear agenda to atomize Serbs. All the census estimates of Montenegro's ethnic makeup after WWII strictly forbade people born in Montenegro to identify as Serbs. Thus earlier ones show 80-90% "Montenegrins" and 6-8% Serb(ian)s. This number has been steadily dropping since 1990 when it was again "okay" to be both a Serb and a Montenegrin.

Even then, the nature of census questions were such that they made choices difficult. First, by substituting the the name Serb for Serbian, many a Montenergin would have difficulty choosing because they are not Serbians. When they were allowed to declare themselves as Serbs in 2003, the number of Serbs in Montenegro in 1990 miraculously rose from 8% to 32% and "Montenegrins" (by "nationality) dropped from 90% in the 1950's to mere 43%.

What happened is that despite all the lies of Tito's Serb-hating regime that were used to raise generations to believe in some sort of "Montenegrin" ethnic entity, it was a colossal failure, although a good portion of the Montenergin Serbs for one reason or another today believe they are not Serbs, even though all their prominent ancestors identified as Serbs! (it tells me much about an average Montenegrin's educational level)

The vote on Sunday will probably succeed because, in addition to 43% of "Montenergins", there will be 5% of Albanians who will vote for independence for obvious reasons, and about half the Bosnian Muslims, or about 4% in total. So one can count on a 52% majority to vote for independence, thus legitimizing a lie.

Any hope that nearly half the Montenegrins living in Serbia will travel to Montenegro to vote against independence will probably fail despite free transport offered them. Their notoriety as rather "laid back" maye be stronger than their desire to keep the country undivided. Only those who stand to lose benefits (such as free education) may go to vote. Others will simply ask for Serbian citizenship and stay put. The economic and political consequences for Montenegro (which is useless in the former sphere), however, will be enormous. Soon, the intoxication of independence will wear off and the reality will set in. All in due time.