Posted on 03/21/2006 3:45:43 PM PST by Aetius
Montana Senate: Burns Burnt?
March 21, 2006--Senator Conrad Burns is now lagging behind both potential Democratic opponents in the race for his Senate seat.
In the latest Rasmussen Reports poll, Burns trails State Senate President Jon Tester 46% to 43%. In our last poll he was neck and neck with Tester. Burns trails State Auditor John Morrison 48% to 43%.
In the rolling average of our last three polls, Tester leads Burns 46% to 45% and Morrison leads Burns 47% to 44%.
Rumors abound that Senator Conrad will bow out and be replaced by either Congressman Denny Rehberg (thought to be interested in running should Burns step aside) or former Governor Mark Racicot (thought to be reluctant, but strongly preferred by many).
Each waiting-in-the-wing Republican leads handily when voters consider potential match-ups against both Tester and Morrison. Racicot leads Tester 57% to 34% and leads Morrison 56% to 36%. Rehberg leads Tester 56% to 37% and holds a 12-point lead over Morrison, 53% to 41%.
If Burns bows out, the GOP will probably hold on to this seat. But if he insists on playing out his hand, it may well be snagged by the Democrats.
The Burns campaign has been traumatized by talk of the candidate's alleged ties to indicted mega-lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Only 48% of likely voters now view Burns favorably, and 50% view him unfavorably. In January, 55% viewed him favorably.
Tester is viewed favorably by 48%, Morrison by 54%.
Fifty-six percent (56%) of Montana voters believe most politicians would change their vote on an important issue to get a large campaign contribution?
Thirty-seven percent (37%) believe it takes at least $50,000 to influence a Senator or Governor. Thirty percent (30%) believe gifts in the $1,000 to $10,000 range are enough to turn the head of an elected official. Thirty-two percent (32%) are not sure.
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The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdgeTM Premium Service for Election 2006 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a mid-term election. We update the President's Job Approval Ratings daily and are polling every Senate and Governor's race at least once a month in 2006.
Rasmussen Reports was the nation's most accurate polling firm during the Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.
During Election 2004, RasmussenReports.com was also the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
Sadly, Morrison will be the next Senator from Montana. He is not nearly as much of an A-hole as Schweitzer, and has wide support in all areas of the State. His dad, Frank, recently passed away unexpectedly, which deprives him of a saavy advisor and campaigner, but also gives him incentive to win one in dad's memory. No matter who the GOP candidate is, he's toast. The state party is in shambles, thanks to Uncle Marc. What a jerk.
Filing deadlines for this race?
The filing deadline is Thursday.
Then Denny Rehberg doesn't have much time to make a decision (as he hasn't filed for anything yet).
Hopefully, Rehberg will file for the Senate regardless of what Conrad Burns does.
Ooops. Unless Burns pulls a Gallegly...
You dont' think Rehberg could beat Morrison?
Didn't Morrison oppose the state's voter-approved ban on gay marriage?
No. He told the Billings Gazette a week or so ago he has no intention of bowing out.
With the Californication of formerly strong GOP areas like the Flathead, Morrison will win as handily as Schweitzer did.
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