First 'Jericho Effect' poll: Kadima at 43 seats, Likud shows gains [to 16 seats]

Ha'aretz ^ | 16 March 2006 | Haaretz Service and Agencies

[anotherview]

Last update - 08:52 16/03/2006
First 'Jericho Effect' poll: Kadima at 43 seats, Likud shows gains
By Haaretz Service and Agencies

An opinion poll released on Thursday, the first survey conducted after the IDF?s siege of the Jericho prison and the surrender of the killers of cabinet minister Rehavam Ze'evi, showed that if elections were held now, Kadima would gain as many as 43 seats and that the Likud had passed Labor as the second-strongest party.

The Army Radio poll conducted by the Geocartographia polling firm showed the Likud on the rise, adding two seats to 16. Labor, meanwhile, slipped to 14. Kadima would gain 42-43 seats, a rise of as many as five seats over last week.

Pollster Avi Dagani said that the rise in the Likud's strength, despite the fact that the Jericho operation was carried out at the order of Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert of Kadima, was an outgrowth of the "Jericho Effect," the voter response to the raid.

On the question of whether the Jericho raid had been campaign-motivated, 61 percent of respondents said that the Jericho raid had been "vital from the national security standpoint," while only 23 percent thought the raid had been motivated by the elections.

The poll showed Avigdor Lieberman's Russian immigrant-based Yisrael Beiteinu rising to 11 seats in the 120-seat house.

The ultra-Orthodox Sephardi Shas was unchanged at nine seats. Also unchanged were the Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism at seven seats and the leftist Meretz at four.

[anotherview]

The poll showing 43 seats for Kadima was a Geocartography/Channel One/Army Radio poll. The Ha'aretz/Dialogue poll was conducted a day earlier and showed Kadima with 37 seats to 20 for Labour and 16 for Likud.

[anotherview]

ping

[goldstategop]

The good news is the virtual demise of the once dominant Labor Party on Israel's scene. Voters realize Amir Peretz would destroy Israel's economy with misguided socialist policies long before Oslo did the damage. There may not be an anti-Oslo party for Israelis to vote but the public seems to be proceeding on the maxim, "do no harm." Which in the long run of things, is good for Israel's future.

(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")

[Yaakov The Orator]

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/news.php3?id=98430

[Honestfreedom]

I find it interesting that Britain and the USA are not complaining at all about the raid. I bet after the elections Israel will not be so free of criticism.

[Sabramerican]

There will be plenty of harm. Added to what has already been done.

The heart and soul of Labor that bought all the damage that Labor has wrought on Israel in the last 15 years is Shimon Peres.

He is now high up in Kadima.

If Kadima forms the next Government, Labor is a certain partner.

Huge damage to Israel is a certainly from that incestuous relationship of Leftists, opportunists, fools and criminals.

[anotherview]

The new Maagar Mohot poll breaks down this way:

Kadima -- 36
Avoda (Labor) -- 21
Likud -- 17
Yisrael Beytenu -- 10
Shas -- 9
National Union/NRP -- 9
Yahudat Hatorah (UTJ) -- 7
Arab parties -- 6
Meretz -- 4
Ale Yarok -- 1

This would indicate a much stronger showing for Labor than previously expected. In other words, we won't really know until March 28.

I do expect Prime Minister Olmert will win easily, but whether Kadima gets 34 seats or 43 seats or somewhere in between is anyone's guess. I also expect the coalition that results will be Kadima-Labor-Shas unless Bibi steps down again from Likud leadership (as he did in 1999) after another drubbing at the polls. Kadima-Likud-Shas would be much better for Israel. I certainly agree with you that Amir Peretz would do damage and I certainly don't want him to have any influence in a new government.

As you know I believe that Prime Minister Olmert is following the correct course and I believe it is what Prime Minister Sharon would have done, though he would have been less open about it during the election. That is not a popular view on Free Republic.

In 1967 when most Israelis celebrated my father did not. His words: "Occupation. Bad business." I think the last nearly 39 years have proved him to be correct. The Palestinians will never change. They can do less harm fenced in outside our borders.

[anotherview]

Shimon Peres is high on the Kadima list but he has little influence. He is there to take voters away from Labor. Tzipi Livni, not Shimon Peres, will be Vice Premier in a Kadima government. Peres will be given some meaningless ministry where he can do no harm and one seat in the Knesset from which he can say stupid things.

Who will have the most influence? Livni, Tzahi Hanegbi, Avi Dichter, Shaul Mofaz, and perhap Meir Shetrit. If this looks like an old Likud list that is no coincidence. The best and brightest from what was Likud now run Kadima.

[Sabramerican]

Right, Peres has no influence. That's why he met with Abbas in Jordan recently and why he met with top policy makers in Washington not long ago.

Best and the brightest? LOL. First class opportunists. And crooks like Hanegbi.

Reading you gives me nostalgia for when I was a student. You are a social psychology experiment. So easily to modify and so easily predictable.

You wrote last Summer that you would never support in Judea and Samaria the same withdrawal policies as Gaza. And certainly never for Jerusalem. All changed now.

You care not about the rockets falling on Israel or Hamas's control. You wish away what would be on the "West Bank". You have no sympathy for Israelis/Jews whose lives you will destroy.

Your views are all rationalized to suit your aim. You picked your Leftist side and now will agree to anything. Like a laboratory subject easily manipulated. The universal politician's favorite voter. Without an ounce of sense.

Unfortunately for Israel. It's filled with many more like you.

[anotherview]

You love twisting my words and putting words in my mouth, don't you? Let's set the record straight:

> Right, Peres has no influence.

Absolutely right.

> That's why he met with Abbas in Jordan recently

A former PM meeting with a lame duck Palestinian President who also has little power or influence.

> and why he met with top policy makers in Washington
> not long ago.

With the authority to do what? Deliver a message from PM Olmert, perhaps, not to set policy.

> You wrote last Summer that you would never support in
> Judea and Samaria the same withdrawal policies as Gaza.

What I said was "Judea and Samaria are another matter", and so they are. We will not be withdrawing from all of the West Bank. Strategic heights along the Green Line will be kept. So will major settlement blocs, including Ariel. Avi Dichter claims we will keep the Jewish enclave in Hebron and the settlements in the Hebron hills. If so this is perfectly in line with the sort of unilateral separation I have supported on Free Republic since well before you showed up. No modification, absolutely consistent.

> And certainly never for Jerusalem.

My position on Jerusalem certainly has not changed. I do not support dividing the city.

> All changed now.

Only in your mind. My position has not changed at all.

> You care not about the rockets falling on Israel

I care deeply. This happened before disengagement and it still happens now. Creating the buffer zone in northern Gaza was a good first step but it is not enough. Stronger IDF action is needed.

> or Hamas's control.

Fatah, Hamas, what's the difference? Both are groups of armed terrorists. Both wish to destroy Israel.

> You wish away what would be on the "West Bank".

What would be? Tell me, please. More death and destruction? More blodshed? That is all that trying to control millions of hostile Arabs as you advocate can lead to.

> You have no sympathy for Israelis/Jews whose lives
> you will destroy.

Quite the opposite. It is you who are advocating policies that will cause many needless Jewish deaths. I have family in the territories (Alfe Menashe and Gush Etzion) in case you had forgotten. They, and at least 80-85% of all settlers in Judea and Samaria, will finally be incorporated into Israel proper. Their homes will be annexed into Israel under the Olmert plan. I see this as a very good thing indeed.

> You picked your Leftist side and now will agree to
> anything.

Wrong. I was center-right when I voted for Likud and I still am. If you are so far to the right that you cannot even see the center then everyone seems like a leftist to you. I remain, as always, a pragmatist, an economic and social conservative (by Israeli standards), and one who wishes above all to preserve the Jewish nature of Israel, something we cannot do if we end up with an Arab majority. I am sorry that you are so blinded by your ideology that you cannot see that.

> Unfortunately for Israel. It's filled with many more
> like you.

Fortunately for Israel all polls show the rump Likud and NRP/National Union pulling maybe a combined 25 seats. All other parties are willing to compromise on territory to enhance Israel's security and preserve a Jewish majority. Your views will be relegated to the dustbin of history.

[Sabramerican]

Excuses, rationale and fantasies. Isn't that Kadima's election slogan?

Your views will be relegated to the dustbin of history.

The Left always says that to the Right.

And the Right usually retorts with and "your views will lead to war".

I don't know of a time the Left's views prevailed and there was peace. Maybe this will be a first time. Maybe more likely the Right will come back as is usual to pick up the pieces and wipe the blood caused by the Left.

We shall see. Although maybe too late for some.

[Alouette]

Your views will be relegated to the dustbin of history.

History itself proves otherwise. Which "party" of Jews have survived continuously for the past 4,000 years?

Not the one you belong to.

[Salem]

Stop by here. Some intriguing conversations between members of the Jewish community at Free Republic.

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MikeFromFR ~
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Letter To The President In Support Of Israel ~
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Warnings ~

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"Palestine is the wrong name for their State. It should be called Anarchy."—FReeper sgtbono2002
"Then let's wait and see what the Arabs do after they take Gaza. There's nothing like Arab reality to break up a Jewish fantasy."—FReeper Noachian
A student told his professor he was going to "Palestine" to "fight for freedom, peace and justice,"—Orwellian leftist code words that mean "murder Jews."
The Nature Of Bruce ~

[Nachum]

All other parties are willing to compromise on territory to enhance Israel's security and preserve a Jewish majority. Your views will be relegated to the dustbin of history.

Just as long as it isn't your house and family that is thrown to the wolves.

[SJackson]

As you know I believe that Prime Minister Olmert is following the correct course and I believe it is what Prime Minister Sharon would have done, though he would have been less open about it during the election. That is not a popular view on Free Republic...In 1967 when most Israelis celebrated my father did not. His words: "Occupation. Bad business." I think the last nearly 39 years have proved him to be correct. The Palestinians will never change. They can do less harm fenced in outside our borders.

I've no doubt you're correct about Sharon. As it progresses I've no doubt I won't like where the lines are drawn, or how the "settlers" are treated, but the options are annexation and citizenship for a few million arabs, or expelling/killing a few million arabs, neither of which is going to happen, or another 50 years without borders. Personally, I liked variations on Benny Elon's ideas, perhaps annexing the West Bank and granting palestinians citizenship in Gaza or Jordan, but that won't happen. I don't see what the alternatives are.

An alternate from the Joint Chiefs of Staff

The Pentagon Plan - Joint Chiefs of Staff Map (1974)

Thoughtful military experts have for many years recognized the risks for Israel should it no longer be able to control the territories it acquired in the course of the Six-Day War in June 1967. For example, shortly after the end of that conflict, the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff concluded that, "From a strictly military point of view, Israel would require the retention of some captured territory in order to provide militarily defensible borders."

The Chiefs made the following specific findings:

"The prominent high ground running north-south through the middle of West Jordan [Judea and Samaria] generally...would provide Israel with a militarily defensible border."

"The commanding territory east of the boundary of 4 June 1967 [the Golan Heights]...overlooks the Galilee area. To provide a defense in-depth, Israel would need a strip about 15 miles wide extending from the border of Lebanon to the border of Jordan."

"By occupying the Gaza Strip, Israel would trade approximately 45 miles of hostile border for eight. Configured as it [was prior to 1967], the strip serve[d] as a salient for introduction of Arab subversion and terrorism and its retention would be to Israel's military advantage."

"To defend the Jerusalem area would require that the boundary of Israel be positioned to the east of the city to provide for the organization of an adequate defensive position."

…………………………

These findings are as valid today as they were in 1967. In fact, they have been reaffirmed again and again by knowledgeable military professionals. For example, in October 1988, 100 senior U.S. generals and admirals issued a public call for Israel to "retain the Jordan River line as [her] eastern security border" noting that:

"...If Israel loses this line, it would have virtually no warning of attack, its border would be three times longer than the present one. In the midsection of the country it would be 9 to 18 miles from the Mediterranean. Virtually all the population would be subject to artillery bombardment. The plain north of Tel Aviv could be riven by an armored salient within hours. The quick mobilization of its civilian army -- Israel's main hope for survival -- would be disrupted easily, and perhaps irreversibly."

…………………………

In 1991, Lieutenant General Thomas Kelly, the highly respected chief of Operations for the Joint Chiefs of Staff during Desert Storm, said, "Israel's control over these areas is the only guarantee, however imperfect, of peace. Their loss is a prescription for war." He added that:

"The West Bank mountains, and especially their approaches, are the critical terrain. If an enemy secures those passes, Jerusalem and all of Israel become uncovered. Without the West Bank, Israel is only eight miles wide at its narrowest point. That makes it indefensible." …………………………

Importantly, the Israeli Defense Forces are under no illusion about the abiding importance of strategic analyses like that performed by the Joint Chiefs. As the IDF Chief of Staff Ehud Barak said in May 1993:

"The 1967 Joint Chiefs of Staff memorandum [is] still applicable. <’B> The Arab arms are reaching superiority over Israel with a qualitative as well as quantitative edge....If Israel has to retake the territories proposed to be given up, we cannot do it without tremendous casualties."

...................

The Right Road to Peace

Defensible Borders for a Lasting Peace

[SJackson]

The Palestinians are inhuman monsters, I see no reason why they should even be allowed to live in Israel, push them completly into Jordan if possible. These people only live because of foreign aid, they make nothing and they destroy everything.

You, and a few thousand Freepers, and probably tens of thousands of others, maybe more. You might be able to convince me, but realistically, it's not going to be considered.

[Thinkin' Gal]

Excuses, rationale and fantasies. Isn't that Kadima's election slogan?

"Vote comatose. Vote Kadima."