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I see you are extremely unfamiliar with Louisiana's modern history. We have let the South with the election of Republicans going back to Dave Treen as Governor in the 1980's. We have been a Red State the last two Presidential elections and most others going back to my grade school years in the 60's. The big question is will the destruction in Jefferson/St. Tammany/Washington tilt it blue next time.

Baker has reason to be concerned. His seat was last re-won by a margin of 6000 votes and there has been an influx of 50,000 from Orleans/Plaquemines/St. Bernard, mostly liberal areas.

If you think North Louisiana is more conservative than South Louisiana you may want to look at the demographics and electoral history of the 1st Congressional District.

His seat was last re-won by a margin of 6000 votes

That part of the article was a bit misleading. In 1998, Baker narrowly defeated Marjorie McKeithen in a race that turned out much closer than expected. Since then, no one has challenged him, and his district was changed to be slightly more conservative.

I'm not worried about Baker losing his seat on a tide of N.O. refugee votes because as soon as the Democrat candidate becomes identified as "the refugee candidate" he will lose the support of thousands of locals who would otherwise vote Democrat. Certainly among many white voters who voted for McKeithen. I expect most of those refugees to continue to vote from New Orleans residences anyway. If large numbers try to register and vote in Baton Rouge both parties will get together to put up roadblock to that happening, it's too threatening to their own power.

On top of all that, politics has changed in the South since 1998 and Louisiana is less Democrat-friendly in general.