Posted on 02/28/2006 12:51:14 PM PST by BenLurkin
While some once-hot metro markets like Las Vegas are showing signs of cooling, others are still on the upside of the boom. Phoenix, which was slow to catch fire, actually saw accelerating price gains this year -- at least up through the third quarter.
The following tables are from an analysis by David Stiff, chief economist of Fiserv CSW, of single-family home price data from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. Included in the tables are only those metro areas that had at least 15% price increases from the first quarter of 2004 through the first quarter of 2005. The first table shows markets that subsequently slowed, while the second shows ones that got even hotter through the July-to-September quarter.
(Excerpt) Read more at biz.yahoo.com ...
These are goofy statistics. Time frames are too short; and sample sizes are too small.
Many places can be influenced by increase or decrease of new homes in the market, or of condo conversions--just to name two factors which often skew such statistics.
The figures are also delayed. By the time figures are published, changes have set in.
Phoenix shows a very high rate of price increases. Yet Phoenix is overbuilt and finished new homes sit in inventory.
If these new homes are higher priced than the overall existing housing stock, the new sales will pull up the overall average sales price.
But to move these completed new homes, builders are giving big incentives in many regions. Costly upgrades (floors, appliances, closing costs, etc).
Those incentives don't show on the price paid, but they should be.
New home starts will slow soon, as they get scared about the slower sales and standing inventory. Completed new homes unsold are at a record high, I read this morning.
I wonder about homes in Phoenix and if prices will come down on existing purchased homes?
My husband and I are looking to buy there around November/December and looking at the market now, it's scary. We can't afford much, at least nothing close to what we want (4 bed/2 bath/2000 sq ft).
Housing fluctuations don't affect me. If the meter rate goes up, I just park somewhere else.
The number of home listings in metro Phoenix is at an all-time high. In January, there were 30,113 houses for sale across the Valley. A year ago, there were 3,402.
Supply....demand.....sorry, I don't see much appreciation in Phoenix in the short term....
I think many home owners are just trying to win the real estate lottery. That's why you see so many homes on the market.
Correctly priced homes will sell.
As for prices actually falling, I doubt it. The population of Phoenix is growing, the economy is doing great, and interest rates (while increasing) are still low.
In addition, there are no Texas or Illinois cities on these charts, how can they be not represented both states have big populations.
I live in Phoenix, and inventory of existing homes on the market has increased, but prices are NOT dropping. They are still rising, although at a slower pace.
I have no crystal ball, but I do not think prices will fall here for this reason: Prices in our nearby "competing home markets", Southern California and Las Vegas. SoCal prices are "completely out of sight" compared to here, and many of our buyers have been for years and continue to be, SoCal buyers, flush with cash from their home sale there.
And Las Vegas had it's home price run-up a few years ago, and is still priced way higher than Phoenix. Bottom line: don't expect home prices to fall here. They will continue to rise.
In my neighborhood, a desirable area of homes from 1800 to 4000+ sf, when the oldest homes sell (circa 1979), often they are gutted and completely remodeled immediately, before they are occupied.
I live in Phoenix, and the stats, tho they may seem crazy, are correct. A year ago, during a price run-up from Sept 04 to Sept 05 of 50+%, there was a shortage of inventory. Homes sold in a day, and often involved a bidding war.
Today, the home inventory is in fact, almost ten times greater, price increases have slowed, but sold prices are still increasing!!
That's an urban/internet myth. Phoenix has planned well for it's population growth. In spite of a current drought, there is no water shortage, nor one for the forseeable future here.
Other than the Colorado River and six inches of rain a year,where do cities like Phoenix and Las Vegas get their water? Has anyone ever done an honest and accurate study of how many people can be supported by the water resources that are available?
I have no knowledge of Las Vegas' water situation, so can't speak to that.
As to Phoenix, to answer your question, yes. There is a state department of water resources that developers must provide complex studies showing a "100 year supply" of water for those homes. Without that, no building permits are issued.
Contrary to what some in other parts of the country may think, at least in Phoenix Metro area, development, though rapid, is not willy nilly, is well thought out, and infratstructure, including water, is planned well ahead for.
You know, it's not all dummies from outer space that live here -- almost all were your friends and neighbors who moved here from other parts of the U.S. at one time or another in the past :) ...
"Other than the Colorado River and six inches of rain a year,where do cities like Phoenix and Las Vegas get their water? Has anyone ever done an honest and accurate study of how many people can be supported by the water resources that are available?"
Where does water come from for all the people in the east, considering their "mountains" would barely be foothills in the west? I assume it comes from annual melting of snowpack.
Facts:
Snowfall is more likely as altitude increases.
Snow falls annually in much of the north and east of Arizona. For example Flagstaff is at about 7,000 ft. elevation. Nearby is Oak Creek, running through Sedona. In Jan. 2005 it was at flood levels. I was there at the time, and they got hail, rain and snow.
Prescott is about 5,000 ft. and Tucson is about 2,400 ft.
Finally, people probably use less water in Phoenix, due to desert landscaping of homes.
There is a statewide water system. More water in the north, more people in the south.
A lot of people depend on "honest" studies of water in the west. Hopefully they are more accurate and "honest" than Louisiana levee engineering.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.