Jay Cost was spot on during the 2004 election. He has a good track record.
You are right, cableguy. Jay Cost's Horsrace Blog was where I went every day during the two months prior to the election. He was right on, in nearly every state, analyzing which polls were valid and which were not as well as how past trends would play out in the present election. As I remember, he gave a little more credence to a Bush Pa. win then the final result would indicate. Other than that, his predictions were very good, especially Ohio, and made me feel confident going into November. Also, I remember he murdered the media idea that this huge army of disgruntled under 25's was going to rise up and make all the difference on election day.
And on election day, he cautioned all his readers not to take the exit polls seriously. He was not willing to accept that suddenly four or five million potential Bush voters woke up that morning and decided to vote Kerry. He was a stable ship of logic in a sea of media storm of misinformation.