[LS]

By far, Jay Cost was THE most accurate predictor in 2004. He clearly had OH, IO, FL, and NM going Bush, had PA, WI, PA, and NJ competitive, all on the basis of extensive voter registration anaylsis.

I'd take his prediction over any other, except my own :)

I do think he is somewhat negative here: a) Bush's job approval will go up some more; b) there are world events---given the Dem positions on things---that will ONLY help the GOP; and c) the Dems are particularly inept, even by recent standards.

Bottom line: GOP gains 2-4 House seats, 1-3 Senate seats.

[Milhous]

Bottom line: GOP gains 2-4 House seats, 1-3 Senate seats.

That particular result would please me mightily. :) Keeping a simple majority also works for me. Thanks for your executive overview of Cost's 2004 track record.