Posted on 02/07/2006 9:04:02 AM PST by RWR8189
February 7, 2006--State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka (R) leads Governor Rod Blagojevich in an early look at the 2006 campaign for Governor of Illinois.
The latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows Topinka with 48% of the vote while the incumbent Governor attracts 37%.
Blagojevich does better against two other potential challengers. Blagojevich is tied with Ron Gidwitz at 40%. The Governor holds a very slight lead over Jim Oberweis, 43% to 39%.
None of the candidates are viewed favorably by 50% or more of Illinois voters. Blagojevich and Topinka have far higher name recognition than the other candidates.
Topinka is viewed favorably by 46% of voters and unfavorably by 30%. For Blagojevich, it's 40% favorable and 49% unfavorable. For Gidwitz and Oberweis, a plurality don't know enough about them to have an opinion.
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The fact that Oberweis, the most conservative candidate still in contention is in a statistical dead heat with Blago is bad news for the Democrats...
ping
That's fine.
But if it got down to Blago and Baar-Topinka in the general election, I'd vote for her.
In Ill. of all places. That's a surprise!
I've done the hold-my-nose-and-vote thing before. In a Blago/Topinka race, whichever way I voted, and I haven't decided yet, it would require a moonsuit going in and a shower afterward. And maybe a lower colonic.
We've all done it!
I haven't reached the point where I've had to don a moon suit - and god forbid, don't do that colonic!
LOL
Any idea how Topinka is on the 2A?
They ahve to take into effect the "Zombie Rule."
The Zombie Rule states that in any election in a state with a large urban population, the Republican has to lead the Democrat by at least 10 percentage points in any election to win. Otherwise, polls, which consider only the living, fail to account for the dead registered Democrats who wind up voting and multiply registered voting Democrats in your typical large urban districts.
Vote Libertarnian in Illinois! There is no difference between the Blago and Topinka. No need to hold your nose when voting for the best candidate (Libertarian, that is).
I'm really looking at this as potentially good news. A lot of the Democrats here are cool to Blago, and the fact that someone like Oberweis is running well, too, means that maybe -- just maybe -- if conservatives get behind one conservative and knock off Topinka, we could have.....Well, I'm not even going to say if for fear of jinxing things.
GOOD NEWS IN ILLINOIS!
Now, if only Steven Rauchenburger hadn't dropped out of the race. None of the current GOP contenders are particularly distinguished, though preferable to the current Governor.
This poll is meaningless. Topinka has the lead because of so-called "independents" and "moderates" who are going to vote for her in the primary. But Bag-o-crap will get reelected easily.
Traditionally, moderate Republicans don't do well in state-wide Illinois GOP primaries.
If Oberweis has a decent effort down-state and in the collar counties of Chicago, he stands a good chance of winning the primary.
If Oberweis wins the primary, you can expect the MSM and Dems to paint him as an extremist (ala Al Salvi).
Well, before her reign is over, I would imagine that many conservatives in IL would like to move to Topeka and try to reform KS instead!
Isn't the Rasmussen poll skewed left? I can understand why the Dimbulb Party would prefer Judy TooPinko to be popular...
State-by-state actual results vs. RR polls
February 2, 2004--The final, certified, results of Election 2004 show that President George W. Bush received 50.7% of the vote while Senator John Kerry earned 48.3%. Those figures are very close to the final Rasmussen Reports Daily Tracking Poll. We projected the President would win 50.2% to 48.5%.
This confirms Matthew Dowd's assessment that "Scott's polling data was dead on this election. Both nationally and at the state level, his numbers were hard to beat." Dowd was Chief Strategist for Bush-Cheney '04.
The table below shows Election Day results for each state compared to the final polling results we provided to Premium Members. During the final weekend, we provided polling data for 24 states and were 24 for 24.
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