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The Economic State of the Union
bernie.house.gov ^ | 1/23/2006 | Charles W. McMillion

Posted on 02/03/2006 7:13:08 AM PST by B4Ranch

The December jobs report confirms that since the bursting of the 1990s financial bubble the United States has faced the slowest job creation on records going back to 1939.

Indeed, because jobs lost paid for more hours worked per week than did the newly created jobs, the country ended 2005 with fewer private-sector hours worked than it had in January 2001.

This five-year loss of private sector hours worked is the first on record for the private sector and the worst recorded for the entire labor force. Reduced hours worked also explains why measured productivity growth is stronger than average even with output growth far weaker than normal. Productivity is a measure of output per hours worked.

Private firms added only 958,000 jobs over the past five years while state and local governments added 1.1 million jobs (schools, health care, prisons) and the federal government reduced (postal) jobs, for total growth of only two million jobs for the entire U.S. economy.

For the first five-year period on record, the private sector has lost supervisory/managerial jobs. And as everyone worries about runaway health care costs, health care providers accounted for 1.4 million new private sector jobs in the past five years.

Excluding health care, the private sector has lost 467,000 jobs since January 2001. And this includes 894,000 new jobs in bars and restaurants.

One-in-six (16.5 percent) manufacturing jobs were lost in the past five years, the worst losses since demobilization from World War II. Every manufacturing industry has lost jobs with the more capital intensive durable goods industries losing a slightly higher share of jobs than non-durable industries. The hardest hit industries were apparel (-46 percent), textile mills (-41 percent), communications equipment (-39 percent) and semiconductors (-37 percent).

The pattern that has emerged clearly over the past five years is that almost every industry that faces foreign outsourcing or import competition is losing jobs.

Some industries that face global competition, most notably the auto industry, are partly protected by union contracts that now may be quickly losing their effectiveness. Job growth, although sluggish, now occurs almost exclusively in industries that cannot be outsourced and that do not face global imports — health care, education, construction/repair, credit services and local government.

This pattern is reflected in the trade data that show the United States accumulated global deficits of $2.85 trillion over the past five years in all traded goods and services — the international “current accounts.”

U.S. economic growth was slower than world growth for the sixth consecutive year in 2005. Nevertheless, trade deficits — production shortfalls — have worsened sharply in recent years, reaching about 6.4 percent of GDP in 2005. This compares with a current account deficit equal to -3.4 percent of GDP in 1987, at the height of the “competitiveness” crisis.

The industry composition of U.S. trade deficits changed markedly in recent years. For the first time on record, the traditional U.S. surplus in manufactured Advanced Technology Products (ATP) was lost in 2002.

Even with a likely temporary spurt in U.S. export sales of large (Boeing) commercial airliners, which are still classified as ATP, the 2005 U.S. deficit in ATP was larger than any previous surplus. In fact, beginning in 2004, the U.S. deficit in ATP began to exceed the entire U.S. surplus in Intellectual Property licensing and fees. That is, U.S. technology goods and services no longer offset any portion of the U.S. import bill for oil or autos or clothing; the U.S. is now a net importer of technology and intellectual property.

China now accounts for 25 percent of the U.S. current account deficit and for the entire technology deficit.

Effects from these massive structural changes have been masked by equally massive borrowing and asset sales. The gross federal deficit first passed $1 trillion in late 1981 after 200 years of world wars, many regional wars, a civil war, depression, recessions, runaway inflation, a war on poverty and more. Now, the Federal deficit is $8.1 trillion with $2.5 trillion of that added in just the past five years.

Median household income fell for a record fifth straight year in 2004 — the last data available. Yet, aided by recent tax-cuts, consumer spending on non-tradeable goods and services has kept GDP growth at seemingly healthy levels. But this spending comes from the total elimination of current household savings and the accumulation of unprecedented debt. Households spent more than their current incomes in 2005 for the first time since 1933. Indeed, in the fall of 2005, for the first time since 1934, the nation as a whole spent more than it earned as, along with household dis-savings, the government deficit was larger than all business savings.

Income inequality is now the worst on record with the top 5 percent of households getting almost as much annual income as the bottom 60 percent.

The conventional wisdom is that households are now borrowing and spending like drunken sailors because the rising value of their homes are providing the “savings” for them. But Federal Reserve data show that much of the recent rise in home values have been offset by the very weak performance of stocks, money markets and other assets along with weak or declining current savings. As a result, the inflation adjusted rise in household net worth over the past five years is among the weakest on record.

Even with today’s low-but-rising interest rates, households are already paying a record share of their disposable income to service debts. Since the bursting of the financial bubble, household debt has soared as a share of total assets and remained at record levels throughout the past five years.

Where is the economy headed? The most worrying indicator is that policy makers do not seem to understand just where the economy is right now.

— Charles W. McMillion, president and chief economist of MBG Information Services, is a past professor and associate director in the Johns Hopkins University policy institute.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Government
KEYWORDS: manufacturing; sotu; technology
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1 posted on 02/03/2006 7:13:10 AM PST by B4Ranch
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To: B4Ranch
Indeed, because jobs lost paid for more hours worked per week than did the newly created jobs, the country ended 2005 with fewer private-sector hours worked than it had in January 2001.
2 posted on 02/03/2006 7:13:29 AM PST by B4Ranch (No expiration date is on the Oath to protect America from all enemies, foreign and domestic.)
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To: All
If the free trade/outsourcing propaganda were true, would not at least some US export industries be experiencing a growth in employment? If free trade and outsourcing benefit the US economy, how did America run up $2.85 trillion in trade deficits over the last five years?

This means Americans consumed almost $3 trillion dollars more in goods and services than they produced and turned over $3 trillion of their existing assets to foreigners to pay for their consumption. Consuming accumulated wealth makes a country poorer, not richer.

3 posted on 02/03/2006 7:21:17 AM PST by B4Ranch (No expiration date is on the Oath to protect America from all enemies, foreign and domestic.)
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To: B4Ranch

Slower job generation than anyone had since 1939, yet the unemployment stands at a remarkable 4.7%. Go figure...


4 posted on 02/03/2006 7:23:12 AM PST by trebb ("I am the way... no one comes to the Father, but by me..." - Jesus in John 14:6 (RSV))
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To: trebb

Totally ignores millions starting their own businesses. Also, only looks at hiring by big corps.


5 posted on 02/03/2006 7:27:20 AM PST by Thom Pain (Supporting the Constitution is NOT right wing. It is centrist.)
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To: trebb

Quote: "Slower job generation than anyone had since 1939, yet the unemployment stands at a remarkable 4.7%. Go figure...:

The author's argument being that the jobs created are of lesser overall quality than the jobs lost. Not sure I buy it because it sounds like a strained effort to talk down the economy.


6 posted on 02/03/2006 7:28:54 AM PST by FlipWilson
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To: FlipWilson

This guy is so wrong..but it fits his Liberal ideas...its booming here in Denver


7 posted on 02/03/2006 7:32:45 AM PST by Youngman442002
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To: Thom Pain

I read that at least 1/2 of all new businesses fail within the first 3-5 yrs. I guess, if you have a lot of businesses starting each year, this may skew the statistics, as they don't seem to include those that fail.


8 posted on 02/03/2006 7:33:15 AM PST by stuartcr (Everything happens as God wants it to.....otherwise, things would be different.)
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To: FlipWilson
The author's argument being that the jobs created are of lesser overall quality than the jobs lost. Not sure I buy it because it sounds like a strained effort to talk down the economy.

I agree that wages have not caught up in many areas, but the guy was talking about job production, as in number of jobs, which he had to totally manufacture.

9 posted on 02/03/2006 7:35:15 AM PST by trebb ("I am the way... no one comes to the Father, but by me..." - Jesus in John 14:6 (RSV))
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To: trebb

"Slower job generation than anyone had since 1939, yet the unemployment stands at a remarkable 4.7%. Go figure.."

I know. That kind of puzzles me to at first. But when you think about it, the 2 aren't really mutually exclusive.


10 posted on 02/03/2006 7:35:33 AM PST by Pessimist
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To: B4Ranch

"Private firms added only 958,000 jobs over the past five years while state and local governments added 1.1 million jobs (schools, health care, prisons) and the federal government reduced (postal) jobs, for total growth of only two million jobs for the entire U.S. economy."

If this is true, its disgusting.


11 posted on 02/03/2006 7:36:17 AM PST by Pessimist
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To: B4Ranch

Also being reported this last week is that personal savings is the lowest since the depression.


12 posted on 02/03/2006 7:53:52 AM PST by WatchingInAmazement ("Nothing is more expensive than cheap labor," prof. Vernon Briggs, labor economist Cornell Un.)
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To: B4Ranch

I'm glad you posted this. Everyone says that the economy is booming, X amount of jobs have been created, but just what kind of jobs, and how many do you have to hold down to make ends meet? Please don't even mention affordable health insurance, if you happen to fall through the cracks.

People who try and start their own businesses, end up getting slapped down by all the government regulations. Not all, but as many as two thirds of businesses go under, I think in the first year?


13 posted on 02/03/2006 7:56:04 AM PST by TheSpottedOwl (As soon as I remember it, I'll type it in....)
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To: TheSpottedOwl

I agree, everywhere you look, you see how great things are...bottom line though, is that if the people don't perceive themselves as being better off, then they will vote accordingly. I have yet to find many people that are not worried about finances, jobs, and the economy...whether valid or not.


14 posted on 02/03/2006 8:06:32 AM PST by stuartcr (Everything happens as God wants it to.....otherwise, things would be different.)
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To: FlipWilson
yet the unemployment stands at a remarkable 4.7%

Who's doing the counting? Go figure why the unemployment rate is so 'remarkable'.
15 posted on 02/03/2006 8:13:22 AM PST by hedgetrimmer ("I'm a millionaire thanks to the WTO and "free trade" system--Hu Jintao top 10 worst dictators)
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To: B4Ranch
Building An American Future Means Rejecting the "Davos Culture"
16 posted on 02/03/2006 8:14:48 AM PST by Willie Green (Go Pat Go!!!)
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To: WatchingInAmazement

That's only a valid statistic if you believe that everyone investing in bonds, the stock market and precious metals are not "saving". It doesn't count anything put into a 401K or an IRA. So how good can this statistic be ? Garbage.


17 posted on 02/03/2006 8:21:20 AM PST by cinives (On some planets what I do is considered normal.)
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To: B4Ranch

Folks. This is bernie sanders.gov and admitted Socialist. He must spread bad tidings because captilism doesn't work.


18 posted on 02/03/2006 8:31:22 AM PST by encm(ss)
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To: encm(ss)

All I know is that my husband and I are better off economically than we were 5 years ago and part of that includes the tax cuts that came when we needed them!


19 posted on 02/03/2006 8:32:41 AM PST by princess leah
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To: Pessimist
http://stats.bls.gov/

This article is full of crap and lies. Go to the govt statistics dept and if you can read and understand tables of stats you will see the real truth.
I'm not going to post them, because if you aren't into numbers, it will make you go blind.


20 posted on 02/03/2006 8:36:36 AM PST by USS Alaska (Nuke the terrorist savages - In Honor of Standing Wolf)
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