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PUTIN'S GAS BLUNDER
Center for Defense Information ^ | Jan 11, 2006 | Peter Rutland

Posted on 01/12/2006 7:57:12 AM PST by sergey1973

The abortive interruption of Russian natural gas supplies to Ukraine on January 1 was a humiliating diplomatic blunder. It was an unnecessary crisis, and one that Russia clumsily lost in the court of world public opinion.

While Ukraine was threatened with a gas blockade, Russia was voluntarily submitting itself to a two-week information blockade. The entire country was given a holiday from January 1 to 10, with even the newspapers shuttered. The political class fled to their holidays in the sun, and none of the usual Kremlin spin-doctors were deployed to staunch the flood of Western criticism.

The Russian case simply did not get an airing in the international media. Moscow never stood a chance. There is a case to be made for Russia: not a strong one, but a case, nevertheless. It consists of the following elements.

(Excerpt) Read more at cdi.org ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Foreign Affairs; Russia
KEYWORDS: austria; easterneurope; eeurope; eurasia; europeanunion; gas; gascrisis; gastonspooblunder; gazprom; hungary; nato; opec; putin; putinsbuttboys; russia; ukraine; vladtheimploder
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1 posted on 01/12/2006 7:57:15 AM PST by sergey1973
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To: phatoldphart; Vicomte13; Centurion2000; x5452; Atlantic Bridge; TXBSAFH; jb6; GarySpFc; ...

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2 posted on 01/12/2006 7:59:33 AM PST by sergey1973 (Russian American Political Blogger, Arm Chair Strategist)
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To: sergey1973

The only worse blunder is what Ukraine has done in response.

Signed an agreement that led to the dismissal of parliment.

Russia may have just blundered into great success; the Oranges are now at war with one another and right before the elections.


3 posted on 01/12/2006 8:02:13 AM PST by x5452
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To: sergey1973

Is the natural gas pipeline company, which shut down gas to the Ukraine, the employer of former Prime Minister Schroeder of Germany? Just curious.


4 posted on 01/12/2006 8:18:57 AM PST by GOPJL (gopjl)
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To: sergey1973

Oops, I thought this was a story about Kennedy.


5 posted on 01/12/2006 8:30:22 AM PST by right right
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To: GOPJL
Is the natural gas pipeline company, which shut down gas to the Ukraine, the employer of former Prime Minister Schroeder of Germany? Just curious.

Yes it is. Gazprom is the new Schroeder employer.

6 posted on 01/12/2006 8:42:22 AM PST by sergey1973 (Russian American Political Blogger, Arm Chair Strategist)
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To: sergey1973; spanalot; Tailgunner Joe; lizol; Lukasz; A. Pole; MarMema; Mount Athos; airborne; ...

Sergey, this article clearly shows there was a good Russian side to the argument which most never saw. If anything Russia is guilty for not making its case clear in the international press.


7 posted on 01/12/2006 9:46:55 AM PST by GarySpFc (De Oppresso Liber)
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To: GarySpFc

BS were is this missed by media part of contract to which author referring to? I don’t see anything in this article.


8 posted on 01/12/2006 11:06:46 AM PST by Lukasz
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To: Timedrifter; Alex-DV; ValenB4; truemiester; anonymoussierra; zagor-te-nej; Freelance Warrior; ...

Well its true, the Soros backed teams do have better spin doctors, making them saints even when they are flat out thieves.


9 posted on 01/12/2006 11:16:09 AM PST by jb6 (The Atheist/Pagan mind, a quandary wrapped in egoism and served with a side order of self importance)
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To: GarySpFc

If anything Russia is guilty for not making its case clear in the international press.==

Russia always was stubborn. When United States made her case to international press? US just go and do things. Like the war in Iraq.
International world opinion badmouthes United States. Did it change american stance? No.

So Russia may feel herself above it. Let weaker seek something outside in world opinion. The strong just do things.


10 posted on 01/12/2006 12:25:06 PM PST by RusIvan ("THINK!" the motto of IBM)
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To: RusIvan

"Russia always was stubborn. When United States made her case to international press? US just go and do things. Like the war in Iraq.
International world opinion badmouthes United States. Did it change american stance? No.
So Russia may feel herself above it. Let weaker seek something outside in world opinion. The strong just do things."

This is true.
But the strong and the wise don't do things that stiff arm the world unless they absolutely HAVE to.
The US absolutely HAD to go to war in the Middle East, given the terror threat and other problems.
But Russia did not have to do something as dire as cutting off gas in winter and alarming everybody who depends on Russia for gas and oil.
The Russians had some points, but their way of making those points ended up damaging Russian interests.

Anyway, it's done now, so no point in agonizing over it.
Russia's biggest problem isn't this, but imploding birth rates and the population of Siberia by irresistible waves of millions of Chinese immigrants, currently ongoing, and with the only end the return of former Manchu lands to China. That's not what the Chinese immigrants are thinking. But it is what their children will think about.

And to resist that, Russia has to bind itself to the rest of Christendom tightly. Specifically, the United States. Russia and America are natural allies. They touch up in Alaska, and Alaska and Siberia are where the great resources are. Russians are stubborn, and Russia is a great land, far too great to be contained in the little and middling powers of old Europe, and with a history of vanquishing various alliances of Europeans, of which the EU is the latest example. Only America is of a parallel stature as Russia.

The cold war was about ideology, not race. Germans and Finns may hate Russians, but millions of Americans ARE Russians. There is no racial antipathy or history of domination between America and Russia.

Russia needs an ally. One good ally. America also needs an ally, a powerful ally. The Communists are gone. There is no ideological bar to Russian/American alliance. And, unlike the Germans, the Americans didn't actually KILL lots of Russians. The two glared at each other across barbed wire for a half century, but were not damnfool enough to actually go at each other.

Siberia has more resources than anywhere else in the world. They are underdeveloped, unexploited and being gradually, inexorably, sucked into the Chinese economic machine. Russia needs America to economically organize Siberia, so that Russia can keep a good grip on it and the Americans and Russians can both profit from it.


11 posted on 01/12/2006 12:38:12 PM PST by Vicomte13 (Et alors?)
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To: jb6

Oh yeah, Soros-backed teams make fine spin doctors. /sarc


12 posted on 01/12/2006 12:41:50 PM PST by 1rudeboy
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To: RusIvan

"So Russia may feel herself above it. Let weaker seek something outside in world opinion. The strong just do things."

This is a good point you just made and it is true.


13 posted on 01/12/2006 1:10:19 PM PST by quant5
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To: Vicomte13

"Russia needs America to economically organize Siberia, so that Russia can keep a good grip on it and the Americans and Russians can both profit from it."

I would love that kind of a "marriage of convenience" but I do not think it is likely to happen.


14 posted on 01/12/2006 1:11:35 PM PST by quant5
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To: quant5

It is not likely to happen, because the American politicians do not see it.

What you need is an American President with real keen strategic vision and particular insight into Russia, who understands what's in Siberia, and understands that Russia is alone, isolated, in bad shape, but certainly a better place to deal with than, say, Saudi Arabia.

With the Russians, you get about 1/6th of the planet, immense resources, and a global outlook.

You need someone who looks at Russia, understands Russia, and is willing to simply, dedicatedly, make Russia a top American priority.

Obviously for that you need Condoleezza Rice in the White House...


15 posted on 01/12/2006 2:56:19 PM PST by Vicomte13 (Et alors?)
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To: jb6

Do you think the electorate will be able to see through the lies of the Clinton spin team?


16 posted on 01/12/2006 3:24:11 PM PST by Hill of Tara
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To: GarySpFc

Yes, Russia should have made it's case in the media, as Ukraine and its supporters did.


17 posted on 01/12/2006 3:25:26 PM PST by Hill of Tara
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To: Hill of Tara

Well, most in eastern/southern Ukraine never bit into them to begin with.


18 posted on 01/12/2006 3:38:41 PM PST by jb6 (The Atheist/Pagan mind, a quandary wrapped in egoism and served with a side order of self importance)
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To: Hill of Tara

Of course those on the conservative side always have trouble making their case in the media, and that not due to their own fault. Russia and American media are both biased to the far left.


19 posted on 01/12/2006 5:25:09 PM PST by GarySpFc (De Oppresso Liber)
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To: sergey1973; jb6; GarySpFc; RusIvan; Tailgunner Joe

"and none of the usual Kremlin spin-doctors were deployed to staunch the flood of Western criticism."

Except on FR where the ancient art of Kremlin obfuscation maintained a continuous Durantyesque squeal.


20 posted on 01/12/2006 6:18:38 PM PST by spanalot
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