Kadima seeks to place Sharon at top of party list (if "medically competent") [New polls]

The Jerusalem Post ^ | 11 January 2006 | GIL HOFFMAN AND JPOST.COM

[anotherview]

Jan. 11, 2006 0:34 | Updated Jan. 11, 2006 15:01
Kadima seeks to place Sharon at top of party list
By GIL HOFFMAN AND JPOST.COM

Kadima officials began examining the feasability of placing Prime Minister Ariel Sharon at the top of the party's list, if he were found competent to serve from a medical standpoint.

Regardless of the final decision, Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will remain Kadima's candidate for prime minister in the March 28 elections. The initiative depends on Sharon's continued recovery.

READ MORE ON ARIEL SHARON'S TREATMENT:

* PM treated as all * Best not just for PMs * PM's Argentinean-born surgical team * Unanswered questions * Q&A on strokes

Vice Premier Shimon Peres, who was previously slated for second place on the list behind Olmert, backed the idea. Army Radio reported him saying: "[Sharon] was the founder of Kadima…he made the revolution - there is no doubt about it."

According to the deal, Peres will return to the Ministry of Negev and Galilee Development and will be involved in diplomatic negotiations and projects advancing peace. Peres will also be consulted regarding the makeup of Kadima's Knesset slate.

Justice Minister Tzipi Livni will be third, according to a deal worked out among the three of them late Tuesday night. Meanwhile, a new poll shows the party at a new high, heading for 44 seats.

However, the proposal is hindered by a law stating that a Knesset candidate must submit an application signed by him or herself. The final deadline for submission is four weeks away.

Meretz chairman Zehava Gal-On vehemently rejected the idea, accusing Kadima of taking advantage of Sharon's "fight for his life" in order to gain Knesset seats.

Kadima officials said they were in no hurry to decide key issues like the order of the rest of the party's Knesset list, who would be temporarily appointed to the cabinet and even when the Kadima faction would convene. The first deadline on the horizon is February 7, by which all party lists must be submitted to the Central Elections Committee.

Transportation Minister Meir Sheetrit convened Kadima's organizational campaign team at the party's Petah Tikva headquarters on Tuesday and decided to freeze all campaigning. Several trips of Kadima's Knesset candidates to malls and markets around the country were postponed indefinitely.

Kadima's new branches in cities nationwide will not open until the beginning of February at the earliest, nor will Sheetrit's committee meet again until then.

"I think that the right decision for Kadima at this time is not to have any political activity until the prime minister's condition becomes clear," Sheetrit said. "But [Prime Minister Ariel] Sharon wants Kadima to win and we will be ready."

Sharon's associates said that they were not in the mood to focus on the elections while they were spending most of their time at Hadassah-University Hospital, Ein Kerem. They said they also felt no urgency to campaign while Kadima continued to hold steady in the polls.

A Dialogue poll set to be published in Haaretz on Wednesday found that Kadima rose four mandates since last week, up to 44. Amir Peretz's Labor Party continued to flounder, falling two seats to 16 and the Likud held steady at 13.

A Geocartograpy poll broadcast on Tuesday on Channel 1 gave Kadima 45 seats, Labor 17 and Likud 14. A poll conducted by Smith Research for the business newspaper Globes, which was revealed on Army Radio on Tuesday, indicated that Kadima would win 40 seats, Labor 17 and Likud 15.

In the wake of the polls, Peretz's strategist, Shmuelik Cohen resigned. In his resignation letter, he said his decision was due to his personal financial debts. But Peretz's opponents in Labor said they doubted that debts that Cohen sustained four years ago were the reason.

[anotherview]

Olmert accepted Peres's request for a promotion on the Kadima list, but he turned down his request to be Olmert's vice prime minister or his candidate for foreign minister in a Kadima-led government. Both of those roles are expected to go to Livni, who volunteered to give up the second slot on the list for Peres.

Good. So long as Peres has no real power I'm fine with this.

A Dialogue poll set to be published in Haaretz on Wednesday found that Kadima rose four mandates since last week, up to 44. Amir Peretz's Labor Party continued to flounder, falling two seats to 16 and the Likud held steady at 13.

A Geocartograpy poll broadcast on Tuesday on Channel 1 gave Kadima 45 seats, Labor 17 and Likud 14. A poll conducted by Smith Research for the business newspaper Globes, which was revealed on Army Radio on Tuesday, indicated that Kadima would win 40 seats, Labor 17 and Likud 15.

It seems that the Freepers predicting the collapse of Kadima weren't bothering to see how Israelis felt.

Oh, and note the caveat on Prime Minister Sharon being on the list: he has to be found medically competent to serve. While I would love to see such a miracle I think most of us know that is highly unlikely.

[anotherview]

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[SJackson]

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[Sabramerican]

I don't think I have seen so much popular support for politicians since Dinkins was elected Mayor in NYC and even the birds where happy.

[SJackson]

I was under the impression the "top of the list" was the Prime Ministerial candidate should he be able to form a government. I presume that's defacto rather than legal. Wouldn't putting Sharon at the top of the list deprive them of a vote should he be unable to physically vote in the Knesset?

[SJackson]

It surprises me since there's no charismatic leader, but for what polls are worth.

--------------------------

Wednesday, January 11, 2006

Poll: Kadima 40-44 Labor 16-19 Likud 13-15

Poll: Kadima 40-44 Labor 16-19 Likud 13-15
Aaron Lerner Date: 11 January 2006

It should be noted that many of the leading pollsters who have interviewed
in recent days have warned that the results for Kadima/Olmert are poor
predictors of the final election outcome as they reflect a desire by many
respondents to send a word of encouragement to Prime Minister Sharon via the
pollsters.

On the other hand, if Kadima implements strategic advisor Reuven Adler's
proposal to place Prime Minister Ariel Sharon at the top of Kadima's list
ahead of the
upcoming elections there is no telling how many voters will opt to use their
right to vote to send a get well card on election day to Mr. Sharon by
choosing the "Kadima - SHARON" slip.

Poll #1 Dialogue for Haaretz and Channel 10 telephone poll of a
representative sample of 640 adult Israelis (including Arab Israelis)
carried out on 9 January 2006 as published in Haaretz on 11 January 2006

Poll #2 Smith Institute for Globes telephone poll of a representative
sample of adult Israelis (including Arab Israelis) carried out apparently on
8 or 9 January 2006 as published in Globes on 10 January 2006

Knesset election vote expressed in mandates[current in brackets]
#1 #2
44 40.5 [00] Kadima lead by Olmert
13 14.5 [40] Likud
16 18.5 [21] Labor
04 03 [15] Shinui
10 10 [11] Shas
08 8.5 [08] Arab parties
05 04 [06] Yachad [Meretz]
06 04.5[07*] National Union
05 06 [07*] Yisrael Beiteinu [Lieberman]
06 06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah
03 03.5 [06] NRP
* National Union & Yisrael Beiteinu together have 7 seats
40.5 = 40-41
** while Smith reports that 16% of the public is undecided = 19 seats there
is no "undecided party" in the results reported.

Dialogue:
Who is most appropriate to be prime minister?
Olmert 44% Netanyahu 23% Peretz 13.5%

Who will best handle the security-state problems?
Olmert 40% Netanyahu 29.5% Peretz 9%

Who will best handle the socio-economic problems?
Olmert 30% Netanyahu 27% Peretz 28.5%

Grade (1 to 5)
Trustworthiness: Peretz 2.9 Netanyahu 2.4 Olmert 3.4

Political position (1=right, 3- center, 5 - left):
Peretz 3.9 Netanyahu 2 Olmert 2.97

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il

[Salem]

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[Sabramerican]

You know what I haven't understood?

An issue that coincidentally went up today to the Israeli Supreme Court.

Israel has a parliamentary system. At the last election the head of Likud formed the Government. He is now incapacitated. How is it that the head of Government today is someone from another party? It should still be the head of Likud.

I expect the Leftist always Court to find an answer. They always have answers to the strange things that happen in Israel.

[Sabramerican]

The polls have elected Peres at one time or another to every major position.

In fact he has never won a single election.

[anotherview]

> I presume that's defacto rather than legal.

Correct. The party can designate someone else the position so long as they are elected to the Knesset.

> Wouldn't putting Sharon at the top of the list deprive
> them of a vote should he be unable to physically vote
> in the Knesset?

No. Let's say Kadima wins 44 mandates. The top 44 go to the Knesset. However, if someone in the top 44 resigns, dies, or s incapacitated the #45 name on the list would enter the Knesset. The only way Kadima would lose a seat is if they won all 120 seats since they would only have 119 on the list who could serve. Obviously that isn't going to happen.

This move is purely symbolic, of course. It is meant to honor Prime Minister Sharon. Kadima's opponents, of course, will say it's a cheap stunt to garner sympathy votes. If, by some miracle, the Prime Minister's cognitive and reasoning abilities are undamaged or if he later recovers to normal functioning this raises the possibility of him serving in a Ministerial role if and when he fully recovers. It also raises the possibility of both Ehud Olmert and Tzipi Livni stepping aside in his favor if, at any time in the next five years, he is able to resume the role of Prime Minister. (I see that as highly unlikely.)

[anotherview]

> The polls have elected Peres at one time or another to every
> major position.

They never showed a huge margin like this.

> In fact he has never won a single election.

Actually when he ran against Shamir the first time Labour captured 39 madates to Likud's 37. Peres couldn't form a government and the net result was a grand coalition and a power sharing arrangement. Peres served as Prime Minister for two years followed by Shamir for two years. To say he didn't win is a bit inaccurate. No party has ever won an outright majority.

[Honestfreedom]

What is their view of medically competent? If his feeding tube does not fall out? I suspect he is being kept alive for political reasons and this is just more proof of it. I don't believe it is normal medical protocol anywhere in the world to do three brain surgeries on a 77 year old obese man who is more than likely looking at being bedridden as the most optimistic scenario.