Clock is Running Down on 'Cheap' Mortgages

Hearld Tribune.com ^ | 1/ | Michael Pollick

[em2vn]

It doesn't matter who's idea it was. Don't move in with your in laws. I would say especially so if your in laws came up with the idea.
Ask youself this question. What am I getting myself and my mate into if the in laws are asking us to live with them? Imagine the freedom you are giving up and the emotional indebtness you are entering into.
What attachment to your mate are your in laws seeking to re-establish? Live in a dumpster but don't live with your in laws. It's a loser for you.

[angcat]

You will be enemies before long. Believe me don't live near or with Out Laws.

[Pragmatist]

A lot of people will lose their shirts with all the creative finacnes going on lately. That and off shoring. A family that lives on my street,their house is being forclosedon. His job was shipped to China, and they arelosing it all. Got to love free trade. Not.


Right on. Down with the free-traitors.

[Pragmatist]

You ain't telling me nothing new. It really stops after children. You know women get it in their head that sex is only for procreation and nothing else. Real marriage killer. Makes for real boring evenings.


Right on. I don't understand this part of feminine psychology. And, these same women get angry and confused when their hubbies find sex somewhere else. . .

[OKIEDOC]

Back in 1973 I invested in several homes on one acre tracks.

Interest rates jumped a measly 2% and it took nearly a year to sell them.

I am reading that here in San Diego housing sales dropped a little over 13%.

I look for sales to take a tumble due to the economic marginal propensity to consume kicking in.

Salaries of the average two income families are not keeping up with the rise in prices.

They have some new condos just down the street and they are advertised at starting prices of $399,000 plus for a small one bedroom and $679,000 for something just a tad bigger.

Thats absolutely ridiculer's.

I don't think even if the economy stays good that real estate can maintain their present sales prices.

All the foolish risk takers have sunk money in to their money pit and can't get out.

Just my opinion.

[ex-Texan]

I agree with you 110%. Personally, I cannot believe the local newspapers. They keep reporting upbeat anecdotes from locals connected to the housing industry. Newspapers are too dependent on advertising. I guess over 50% of their revenue comes from real estate and auto sales or related fields. One article said that local are "shocked" by real estate prices that doubled in the past three years. Here is a report that is not allowed on FR. It echoes your concerns: Housing Takes Last Gasp

[bigsigh]

Here's what my wife and I (loan brokers) have noticed since July.

No more 100% loans. And 90% is getting rare. Lenders will do 80/20 if your fico is over 680.

We like the 80% loan and refis.

I ask my clients if they can pay the 30 year conventional payment if the rate goes up 2 points.

For interest only we have some 5-10 year fixed loans.

We're getting some folks who are refying their 2-3 year option ARMs after 2 or 3 years. Most are okay.

The bigger problem is if the market drops significantly and then you need to refi. So far the rate of appreciation is down. Some analysts say we are 20-34% overpriced. Others say the population will keep demand high. We have 4 houses all in socal. 2 below market average. Not worried about the low end. Renters are coming in droves.

[bigsigh]

Why isn't that article allowed here?

[Sunnyflorida]

"people are moving away Florida's south coast. "

This is just plane WRONG. Real Estate price growth may have moderated a bit after the BOOM (3x) post Charley, but good luck if you EVER think you will see 2003 prices again!!!

[bigsigh]

I'm in Oceanside. The population in San Diego Co. will double in the next 25 years. I'm a buy and hold long-term guy. Those who will feel this are those who for some reason will have to sell this year. I like the long term and low end. That's where popluation will create demand.

[Sunnyflorida]

"semi-monthly automatic payments"

Be careful with these. Some of them have fees or do not credit against the principle more than once a month. I have deeply analized several and none I have seen are nearly as good as making an extra payment once a year. That is a straight take down of the prinicple in every loan I looked at.

[baltoga]

True, rates are still reasonable, but the loan amount is much higher. My understanding is that it will take a couple of years for the real-estate market to adjust to seller "frothing".

In my neighborhood 4 homes have been on the market for over 45 days. The sellers are definitely "frothing" with one asking $625,000 for a three bedroom.

[ex-Texan]

This reporter says people are moving away from South Florida. He says more trucks are moving people out of the region than are moving into it. Take Your Argument Up with Him

[ex-Texan]

Try and post it yourself. Take it up with the moderator. Good luck.

[montag813]

In my neighborhood 4 homes have been on the market for over 45 days. The sellers are definitely "frothing" with one asking $625,000 for a three bedroom.

Buyers will blow the froth right off the capeccino. I bought in 2000 and am looking to sell (NYC) because I have two kids now, and this aint the place. My wife is mad we didn't catch the Spring 05 insanity. But we will still do quite well 5-10% lower now.

[bigsigh]

not interested. didn't understand your comments. If there's aproblem I don't need to give the mods and excuse. I'm not exactly freeper of the year.

[Sunnyflorida]

I think his point, which he does a poor job of making, is that it is no longer cheap to live in Florida. People up north and from South America with dough have found it and they are moving in squeezing out the marginal players. There are also through-backs that want things to remain they way the were when they got here; yet they all want jobs and a good economy. You cannot have a good economy without growth. Sure u-haulers out and Mayflowers in. Not surprising.

[Sunnyflorida]

Very good point,

In this area I can tell the age of a house by its size. They just kept getting bigger and bigger. I think we could see a temporary trend to smaller. Something to watch for.

[Cobra64]

I agree. I looked very closely on this topic. A very good neighbor and friend of mine is a very Senior (tier-two Executive) with our bank assured me that this was a good approach. He manges BILLIONs of dollars, and is rounding out scoundrels with the secon largest bank in the USA. He is the Comptroller. And a real hard-ass against fraud and corruption with the mergers and acquisition happening in the financial world. I cannot discuss further since that would betray trust in what is being accomplished... Needless to say, his investigations involve very large "entities" which he is bringing towards... can't say.

Regardless, he knows what makes sense for the average investor and debt dope such as myself.

The Bank with which I have a bunch of dough is linked to my mortgage payment practices. We read the statements, and we're crunching the numbers. We'll be "out of Dodge" in 12 years from this coming April. Maybe sooner.

[cherry]

"I'm not exactly freeper of the year."

oh contrair........we took a secret vote and it turns out YOU ARE FREEPER OF THE YEAR!!!!................lol