Have a Happy New Year !
Posted on 12/27/2005 10:47:43 AM PST by rhombus
NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks stumbled Tuesday as the bond market gave signals that in the past have preceded economic slowdowns.
The yield curve, the spread between the yields of short-term and long-term bonds, inverted for the first time in five years. That means short-term interest rates are higher than long-term interest rates. Investors have been watching the yield curve closely because, in the past, inverted yield curves have usually preceded a recession.
(Excerpt) Read more at biz.yahoo.com ...
I don't see a small cap indicator on that chart.
I guess in the end it is a sell discipline that is most important part. I do try to figure out what part of the bell curve a stock is in try to get favorable entry. You know risk one to make five.
I don't know the Sherman guy, but if he made that prediction, his opinion should be disregarded IMO.
DJIA up 35% in twelve months? Next year? I wish there was some way I could wager him. It would be the closest thing to to a "lock" that I have witnessed in my 38 yrs in the business.
I would also bet plenty that Stein did not make that prediction or perhaps he misheard what was said.
>>>The last time the yield curve was inverted was in 2000, Charles H. Blood Jr., senior financial markets analyst at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. At the time, "it served its classic function of a warning," he said.<<<
I don't buy this analysis. In 2000 there was an exhaustion gap in the NASDAQ chart (e.g., the market was way overbought) which led to the collapse. See:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=my&s=%5EIXIC&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
As a wise man once said, "Investing is a process, not an event."
Have a Happy New Year !
Fascinating how Japan's housing prices chart mimics (with a 20 year breather) their projected population chart.
Seemed to be rather straightforward financial reporting to me. I'm not commenting on the accuracy of it.
I'm sensitive to bias as well, bot not everything is a conspiracy to bring down the U.S. or a Republican President.
I said nothing of the U.S., republican president, conspiracy, or bias for that matter. Interesting that you zeroed right in on that stuff, which makes me wonder if you do in fact believe that maybe it is all those things. :-)
bingo
I've been using the Amex as a quick'n'dirty small cap index. If you have the energy or interest, you can show a difference if you want to plot the AMEX and some official small cap index but that sounds like a lot of work to me....
There's a lot to that. US housing prices are actually down when you take into account size and quality. US wages and steady population growth have been providing a lot of housing price support needed to stimulate supply (new housing construction).
Amex is a poor substitute. Try the S&P 600 small cap or S&P 400 midcap. No work at all.
You've convinced me. Plotting the S&P small cap vs. MSCI World stocks is real easy --for you. I won't let the fact that you haven't succeed stop me from agreeing with you.
Maybe we can also agree that no matter how easy it is, it's still not worth the trouble.
It's easy for anyone. Go on the net, google up some charts.
I won't let the fact that you haven't succeed stop me from agreeing with you.
What the heck are you talking about? Are you saying you want me to go get the graphs for you?
Maybe we can also agree that no matter how easy it is, it's still not worth the trouble.
No we can't agree to that. That's absurd. Unless of course you want to look at the wrong thing and come to the wrong conclusions.
The Amex would be a very poor substitute for the real thing. Scheech.
Stocks are flat today. Must be the yield curve righted itself. AP is just propaganda crap even when reporting business news.
No need --you've seen how I make my own graphs whenever I want (re post 97). We both know that it's you who's never been successful at pulling it off.
Hey guy, I've no desire to make you look like an idiot-- any energy in that direction is completely superfluous. All I'm saying is that if you honestly think it's necessary then I won't stop you. Heck, since it's the Christmas season I'd even be willing to show you how if you really want me to.
Now there is an intelligent post. Toss a little name calling into the mix and off ya go! Do you feel OK? Perhaps you should take ten deep breaths and go lie down for awhile.
We both know that it's you who's never been successful at pulling it off.
Pulling WHAT off? What on earth are you talking about?
You seem to have "issues". Maybe post to someone else? And good luck with your investing. I'm sure the rest of the market place will benefit from trading with you. Ta Ta
LOL! And here I went to all that trouble to write up sell orders for nothin'. < /sarcasm >
We really shouldn't be to hard on them though, they make almost as good a living saying things are bad, as we make knowing things are good!
Well, in all honesty I'll admit that I probably deserve every word--- I really should have known that you're a smart guy and instead of being fooled that you'd actually go and look up the meaning of "superfluous" ending up just being madder than ever.
The reason I was goofing off here was because I've been wrapping up a pretty good year and we've been feeling kind of giddy --but I need to keep in mind that maybe y'all havn't been so fortunate. Must be from spending to much time digging out the S&P 600 Small Cap --
DANG, there I go again! That tears it. You're right, I'm wrong, and I hereby forfeit all arguing with my fellow freepers.
Until next year.
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