Posted on 12/06/2005 7:05:31 AM PST by Strategerist
ABSTRACT
Information obtained through November 2005 indicates that the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season will be much more active than the average 1950-2000 season. We estimate that 2006 will have about 9 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 17 named storms (average is 9.6), 85 named storm days (average is 49.1), 45 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 5 intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 13 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 55 percent above the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2006 to be about 195 percent of the long-term average. This forecast is based on our recently developed 6-11 month extended range statistical forecast procedure which utilizes 52 years of past data. These include five selective measures of September-November North Atlantic and Pacific surface pressure and 500 mb height fields and a measure of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). All predictors are calling for an active season. Analog predictors have also been utilized. The influences of El Niño conditions are implicit in these predictor fields, and therefore we do not utilize a specific ENSO forecast as a predictor. We do not expect El Niño conditions during the 2006 season. It is more likely that neutral or even La Niña conditions will develop.
(Excerpt) Read more at hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu ...
Later on in the piece he once again attacks the idea 2004-2005 was a result of Global Warming.
Gray is currently in a massive academic flamewar with people blaming those seasons on Global Warming at the moment, which is pretty interesting; both in public responses on their various websites, and a quite vicious battle on a private e-mail listerv for tropical mets I've heard about.
BTTT for later read. Interesting. Thanks.
BTTT
Yeah yeah yeah. Cut to the chase: what is he saying about Florida?? :)
And the buses will STILL be in the same parking lot in NOLA.
"They" had billboards around some of the main drags here in Orlando late last summer blaming the hurricanes on global warming - and Bush.
I believe that there predictions at this point last year were for an "average" 2005 season.
That's silly. Everyone knows that the weather is controlled by Federal Government. Most people think that the "windmills" in Palm Springs are for generating electricity, but I know the real reason the giant fans are there.
Stay tuned tomorrow when I explain how racial quotas actually benefit minorities. Of course it isn't based in sound scientific proof like my weather theories.
I have to go now. The nurse just brought my pudding and medications.
Who pays these people? There is no way to predict hurricanes, or their frequency a year in advance, and even less the possibility of them being caused by the mythical "Global warming". In fact, this winter is again being forcast as colder than normal, indication of global cooling, like much of the 80's.
I'm sure everyone in the midwest and parts of the north east are really thinking "global warming" while shivering through this 'Nor-easter.
Yeah, the Dec. predictions aren't nearly as accurate as the March June or August ones, obviously. Gray steadily increased his forecast numbers each time.
8 Is Global Warming Responsible for the Large Upswing in 2004-2005 US Hurricane Landfalls?
8.1 Background
The recent U.S. landfall of major hurricanes Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma and the four Florida landfalling hurricanes of 2004 (Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne) has raised questions about the possible role that global warming may be playing in these last two unusually destructive seasons.
The global warming arguments have been given much attention by many media references to recent papers claiming to show such a linkage. Despite the global warming of the sea surface of about 0.3oC that has taken place over the last 3 decades, the global numbers of hurricanes and their intensity have not shown increases in recent years except for the Atlantic.
The Atlantic has seen a very large increase in major hurricanes during the last 11-year period of 1995-2005 (average 4.0 per year) in comparison to the prior 25-year period of 1970-1994 (average 1.5 per year). This large increase in Atlantic major hurricanes is primarily a result of the multi-decadal increase in strength of the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation (THC) which is not directly related to global temperature increase. Changes in ocean salinity are believed to be the driving mechanism. These multi-decadal changes have also been termed the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO).
There have been similar past periods (1940s-1950s) when the Atlantic was just as active as in recent years. For instance, when we compare Atlantic basin hurricane numbers of the last 15 years with an earlier 15-year period (1950-64), we see no difference in hurricane frequency or intensity even though the global surface temperatures were cooler and there was a general global cooling during 1950-64 as compared with global warming during 1990-2004.
8.2 Discussion
There is no physical basis for assuming that global hurricane intensity or frequency is necessarily related to global mean surface temperature changes of less than ± 0.5oC. As the ocean surface warms, so too does global upper air temperatures to maintain conditionally unstable lapse-rates and global rainfall rates at their required values. Seasonal and monthly variations of sea surface temperature (SST) within individual storm basins show only very low correlations with monthly, seasonal, and yearly variations of hurricane activity. Other factors such as tropospheric vertical wind shear, surface pressure, low level vorticity, mid-level moisture, etc. play more dominant roles in explaining hurricane variability than do surface temperatures. Although there has been a general global warming over the last 30 years and particularly over the last 10 years, the SST increases in the individual tropical cyclone basins have been smaller (about half) and, according to the observations, have not brought about any significant increases in global major tropical cyclones except for the Atlantic which as has been discussed, has multi-decadal oscillations driven primarily by changes in Atlantic salinity. No credible observational evidence is available or likely will be available in the next few decades which will be able to directly associate global surface temperature change to changes in global hurricane frequency and intensity.
Most Southeast coastal residents probably do not know how fortunate they had been in the prior 38-year period (1966-2003) leading up to 2004-2005 when there were only 17 major hurricanes (0.45/year) that crossed the U.S. coastline. In the prior 40-year period of 1926-1965, there were 36 major hurricanes (0.90/year or twice as many) that made U.S. landfall. It is understandable that coastal residents were not prepared for the great upsurge in landfalling major hurricanes in 2004-2005.
We should interpret the last two years of unusual large numbers of U.S. landfalling hurricanes as natural but very low probability years. During 1966-2003, the U.S. hurricane landfall numbers were substantially below the long-term average. In the last two seasons, they have been much above the long-term average. Although the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons have had an unusually high number of major landfall events, the overall Atlantic basin hurricane activity has not been much more active than five of the recent hurricane seasons since 1995 (i.e., 1995-1996, 1998-1999, 2003). What has made the 2004-2005 seasons so unusually destructive is the higher percent of major hurricanes which moved over the U.S. coastline. These landfall events were not primarily a function of the overall Atlantic basin net major hurricane numbers, but rather of the favorable broad-scale Atlantic upper-air steering currents which were present the last two seasons. It was these favorable Atlantic steering currents which caused so many of the major hurricanes which formed to come ashore.
It is rare to have two consecutive years with such a strong simultaneous combination of high amounts of major hurricane activity together with especially favorable steering flow currents. The historical records and the laws of statistics indicate that the probability of seeing another two consecutive hurricane season like 2004-2005 is very low. Even though we expect to see the current active period of Atlantic major hurricane activity to continue for another 15-20 years, it is statistically unlikely that the coming 2006 and 2007 hurricane seasons, or the seasons which follow, will have the number of major hurricane US landfall events as we have seen in 2004-2005.
Sh*t sandwich. No bread.
Gray has clearly been more accurate than chance. At their website all the verfication statistics and previous forecasts are avaliable.
William Gray is wrong every season. Check his past record.
Every season, the MSM quotes him, and every season, he is wrong.
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