Precedents, Variables, and Options in Planning a U.S. Military Disengagement Strategy from Iraq

Strategic Studies Institute of the Army War College ^ | October 2005 | Dr. W. Andrew Terrill, Dr. Conrad C. Crane

[robowombat]

Synopsis:

The questions of how to empower the Iraqis most effectively and then progressively withdraw non-Iraqi forces from that country is one of the most important policy problems currently facing the United States. The authors seek to present the U.S. situation in Iraq in all of its complexity and ambiguity, with policy recommendations for how that withdrawal strategy might be most effectively implemented. They consider previous instances of U.S. military occupation of foreign countries and the difficulty of maintaining domestic support for such operations. The authors view the empowerment of a viable Iraqi central government and a security force to defend its authority as vital to the future of that country, but also suggest that there are severe constraints on the potential for the United States to sustain its military presence in that country at the current level. They conclude that the United States must be prepared to withdraw from Iraq under non-optimal conditions and that the chief U.S. goals should be to devise an exit strategy for Iraq that focuses on bolstering Iraqi government legitimacy even if this does not involve creating a Western style democracy. The authors strongly reject the idea withdrawing from Iraq by the use of a formal timetable, and call for the U.S. to continue its policy of renouncing permanent Iraqi bases.

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[robowombat]

A look at how one of the main Army think tanks views the 'exit strategy' question. You need PDF I believe, to read this.

While a bit too fond of grey and colorless writing I prefer this outfits reports to the mush and PC predelictions that mar RAND documents.

[M. Dodge Thomas]

Basically, as I read that, the recommended strategy is to hope for the establishment of a central government - any central government - which achieves sufficient control so that it will not fall until after the last helicopter leaves the embassy roof.

Rather depressing reading, it seems to me, for someone about to start their second or third tour of duty “downrange”.