Oil Prices Up on Northeastern Forecast ($57.94/bbl)

Associated Press ^ | November 14, 2005

[RWR8189]

SINGAPORE - Crude oil futures opened the week slightly higher, briefly rising above $58 a barrel, on predictions a cold snap was headed for the northeastern United States, the world's biggest winter heating fuel market.

Light, sweet crude for December delivery rose as much as 57 cents to $58.10 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, before slipping to $57.78. The contract fell to $56.93 a barrel last week before closing at $57.53 Friday.

December Brent crude on London's International Petroleum Exchange was 20 cents higher at $55.19 a barrel.

Friday's close was the benchmark contract's lowest close in four months. The tumultuous oil market has been roiled in recent months from outages caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita and speculation there wouldn't be enough supply to counter winter demand, when usage of heating oil rises.

Respected forecaster AccuWeather predicted a "big change" in the weather pattern this week, with a cold jetstream, coming from Canada, hitting the eastern U.S. by midweek and stay through the weekend, AccuWeather said.

"This will mean a repeated shot of cold, wintry weather across the northern States over this time period," said AccuWeather on its Web site.

In other Nymex prices, heating oil rose a tad to $1.739 a gallon while gasoline was up a penny to $1.4919 a gallon. Natural gas meanwhile, rose 2 cents to $11.74 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Prices dipped after both the United States and Japan reported rising inventories last week, amid signs that gasoline demand was also slowing in the United States.

Hurricane Katrina sent prices soaring to $70.85 a barrel Aug. 30, but have since fallen about 20 percent.

Prices could fall even further in the near term, said BNP Paribas analyst Dominic Bryant, but warned a weather-led spike was only weeks away.

"Once the weather turns colder in the U.S., there is scope for a rebound in the price," he said. "Stocks of distillates are still below average for the time of year and production has yet to fully recover from the hurricane-related disruption."

[RWR8189]

Light, Sweet Crude Oil

11/14/2005 Session Contract Detail for Dec 5

	Last				57.94
	Open High				57.80
	Open Low				57.80
	High				58.10
	Low				57.40
	Settle				57.53
	Change				+.41
	Open Interest				131607
	Volume				0.00
	Last Updated				11/14/2005 05:44:53

Unleaded Gasoline

11/14/2005 Session Contract Detail for Dec 5

	Last				1.4916
	Open High				1.4900
	Open Low				1.4900
	High				1.5000
	Low				1.4900
	Settle				1.4850
	Change				+.0066
	Open Interest				43693
	Volume				0.00
	Last Updated				11/14/2005 05:43:33

Heating Oil

11/14/2005 Session Contract Detail for Dec 5

	Last				1.7510
	Open High				1.7500
	Open Low				1.7500
	High				1.7515
	Low				1.7360
	Settle				1.7235
	Change				+.0275
	Open Interest				40448
	Volume				0.00
	Last Updated				11/14/2005 05:48:47

 

Natural Gas

11/14/2005 Session Contract Detail for Dec 5

	Last				11.800
	Open High				11.510
	Open Low				11.510
	High				11.999
	Low				11.510
	Settle				11.712
	Change				+.088
	Open Interest				51178
	Volume				0.00
	Last Updated				11/14/2005 05:43:34

 

[Strategerist]

Respected forecaster AccuWeather predicted a "big change" in the weather pattern this week, with a cold jetstream, coming from Canada, hitting the eastern U.S. by midweek and stay through the weekend, AccuWeather said.

"Respected?" AccuWeather is an embarassment to meteorology.

[palmer]

The Sterling VA forecasters think the cold pattern will last the rest of the month: http://www.weather.gov/view/productview.php?pil=LWXAFDLWX&version=2 (was in last night's discussion)

THE TRANSITION IS COMING FROM NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO BELOW NORMAL AS WE SWITCH TO A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN ACROSS THE CONTINENT...PROBABLY FOR THE REST OF THE MONTH.

[ExGeeEye]

predictions a cold snap was headed for the northeastern United States

Anyone over five years of age knows that when the jack-o-lanterns are replaced by turkeys with pilgrim hats and Santa begins to show up at the mall, it's gonna get cold soon. Accu-Weather is not required.

[Strategerist]

The key think is the typical overheated hype (and vagueness on specifics) of Accuweather's wording.

Yes, indeed, it will be cooler the last half of the week than the first half of the week.

But its not going to be "wintry" in the cities of the Northeast, it's going to be "Novemberish."

[kittymyrib]

So now, with inventories much higher than expected, the piggish speculators will drive the price up every time there is a cold front in the NE in mid-November. Though we've been sweating because of the unusual late heat, we haven't turned on the AC for the past two weeks because of the $270 electric bill we received in Oct. Of that total, $120 was the "Fuel Adjustment" surcharge because of natural gas prices being speculated on. If the citizens of the NE would do likewise this winter, putting on extra clothes during the day and an extra blanket at night, the heating oil and natural gas inventories would go still higher, and the speculators would take it in the shorts. This is really the only way to keep the gougers who run the markets in check.

[Strategerist]

Temps never get below 40 degrees in the NWS forecast for Manhattan through Sunday...

But gosh, people might HAVE TO TURN THEIR HEAT ON. Such an unforseen development in the last half of November clearly will have a devastating effect on oil supplies.

[#1CTYankee]

"If the citizens of the NE would do likewise this winter, putting on extra clothes during the day and an extra blanket at night, the heating oil and natural gas inventories would go still higher, and the speculators would take it in the shorts."

My next door neighbor is heating with coal this year, the guy across the street is using corn and I'm heating with wood pellets.
The speculators can stick that in their shorts.

[excalibur1701]

>>predictions a cold snap was headed for the northeastern >>United States Oh my...the Northeastern states might get some cold weather in the middle of November???? What a shocker. <>

[Mike Darancette]

Crude oil futures opened the week slightly higher, briefly rising above $58 a barrel, on predictions a cold snap was headed for the northeastern United States

This is nonsense, now they are betting on local weather.

[Zeddicus]

My next door neighbor is heating with coal this year, the guy across the street is using corn and I'm heating with wood pellets. The speculators can stick that in their shorts.

Roger that. We do a pre-buy contract for heating oil at the end of every summer, but this year I bought half our usual amount - why? Just put in a wood stove last winter, and we've got four cord of wood piled up.

[#1CTYankee]

"Just put in a wood stove last winter, and we've got four cord of wood piled up.

Didn't buy any wood this year, have a couple of cord left over.
Won't be burning any unless we lose power.(Pellets were a lot cheaper too)

[taxed2death]

"So now, with inventories much higher than expected, the piggish speculators will drive the price up every time there is a cold front in the NE in mid-November. Though we've been sweating because of the unusual late heat, we haven't turned on the AC for the past two weeks because of the $270 electric bill we received in Oct. Of that total, $120 was the "Fuel Adjustment" surcharge because of natural gas prices being speculated on. If the citizens of the NE would do likewise this winter, putting on extra clothes during the day and an extra blanket at night, the heating oil and natural gas inventories would go still higher, and the speculators would take it in the shorts. This is really the only way to keep the gougers who run the markets in check."


I'll stick to "speculating"... That way... I can afford to NOT burn up my 3 cords of wood and blast my oil furnace hot enough and long enough to be able to wear my fav Hawaiian shirts and shorts around my house and leave the windows open a crack to get some fresh air in all winter.

(nice run-on sentence, hugh)?
If ya can't beat em, join em.
:)