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Relying on Computer, U.S. Seeks to Prove Iran's Nuclear Aims
NY Times ^ | November 13, 2005 | WILLIAM J. BROAD and DAVID E. SANGER

Posted on 11/12/2005 11:56:29 AM PST by neverdem

In mid-July, senior American intelligence officials called the leaders of the international atomic inspection agency to the top of a skyscraper overlooking the Danube in Vienna and unveiled the contents of what they said was a stolen Iranian laptop computer.

The Americans flashed on a screen and spread over a conference table selections from more than a thousand pages of Iranian computer simulations and accounts of experiments, saying they showed a long effort to design a nuclear warhead, according to a half-dozen European and American participants in the meeting.

The documents, the Americans acknowledged from the start, do not prove that Iran has an atomic bomb. They presented them as the strongest evidence yet that, despite Iran's insistence that its nuclear program is peaceful, the country is trying to develop a compact warhead to fit atop its Shahab missile, which can reach Israel and other countries in the Middle East.

The briefing for officials of the United Nations' International Atomic Energy Agency, including its director Mohamed ElBaradei, was a secret part of an American campaign to increase international pressure on Iran. But while the intelligence has sold well among countries like Britain, France and Germany, which reviewed the documents as long as a year ago, it has been a tougher sell with countries outside the inner circle.

The computer contained studies for crucial features of a nuclear warhead, said European and American officials who had examined the material, including a telltale sphere of detonators to trigger an atomic explosion. The documents specified a blast roughly 2,000 feet above a target - considered a prime altitude for a nuclear detonation.

Nonetheless, doubts about the intelligence persist among some foreign analysts. In part, that is because American officials, citing the need to protect their source, have largely refused to provide details of...

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: iran; irannukes; nuclearwarhead
IranIran’’s Nuclear Fuels Nuclear FuelCycle Facilities:Cycle Facilities:A Pattern of A Pattern of Peaceful Intent?(State Dept. 43 page pdf)


1 posted on 11/12/2005 11:56:30 AM PST by neverdem
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To: neverdem

Take the computer model that predicts global warming or predicts a bad credit risk or that accurately predicted what Katrina would do to New Orleans a full week before it happened.

Let's apply those same algorithms to Sadam's WMD evidence. Result. Sadam had them 99.5% probability. But not 100%.


2 posted on 11/12/2005 12:07:43 PM PST by spintreebob
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To: neverdem
Amazing how desperate the America haters are to give every benefit of the doubt to Iran and continually mention how this is not "proof", or it could have been fabricated by a sophisticated western intelligence agency (guess who) or it may be being carried out by a "faction" within Iran and unknown to the Iranian government.

If nothing is done about these scumbags and they indeed develop a warhead for their missile and this missile is used, you can bet on what the response will be. The Euroscum will say that if our intel had been more accurate, with regards to Iraq, then they would have been more inclined to do something about Iran before they started WW3.

In other words if Iran develops and uses a nuke, it will be George Bush's fault.
3 posted on 11/12/2005 12:21:05 PM PST by Eagles Talon IV
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To: neverdem
The Americans flashed on a screen and spread over a conference table selections from more than a thousand pages of Iranian computer simulations and accounts of experiments, saying they showed a long effort to design a nuclear warhead, according to a half-dozen European and American participants in the meeting.

WHAT? Using a computer for Intelligence? Send in Joe Wilson.....with lots of mint tea!

4 posted on 11/12/2005 12:27:53 PM PST by Bommer (To Ted Kennedy - "Fat Drunk and Stupid is no way to go through life son!" - Dean Wormer)
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To: neverdem
was a secret part of an American campaign

Uh, well it was a secret part until the NY Times blasted it across their pages...

5 posted on 11/12/2005 12:29:35 PM PST by Zeppo
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To: Zeppo
Uh, well it was a secret part until the NY Times blasted it across their pages...

"Robert G. Joseph, the under secretary of state for arms control and international security, who led the July briefing, declined to discuss any classified material from the session but acknowledged the existence of the warhead intelligence."

Something tells me that the gov't enjoys the fact that the story will now at least get international attention.

6 posted on 11/12/2005 12:48:14 PM PST by neverdem (May you be in heaven a half hour before the devil knows that you're dead.)
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To: neverdem

Somebody has set them up the bomb.


7 posted on 11/12/2005 12:49:03 PM PST by Blowtorch
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Comment #8 Removed by Moderator

To: wardaddy; Joe Brower; Cannoneer No. 4; Criminal Number 18F; Dan from Michigan; Eaker; King Prout; ..
From time to time, I’ll ping on noteworthy articles about politics, foreign and military affairs. FReepmail me if you want on or off my list.

Check out the maps in comment 1 of An Opening for Democrats, However Slim

9 posted on 11/12/2005 9:00:34 PM PST by neverdem (May you be in heaven a half hour before the devil knows that you're dead.)
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To: Blowtorch
Somebody has set them up the bomb.

Are you kidding! ROFLMAO What you say?

10 posted on 11/12/2005 9:03:11 PM PST by phantomworker (All roads lead back to Rome. Boldness has genius, power &magic in it..Begin your dissertation now!!)
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To: Stingy Dog
What you say?

Not you, too! Laziest man on Mars!

11 posted on 11/12/2005 9:05:25 PM PST by phantomworker (All roads lead back to Rome. Boldness has genius, power &magic in it..Begin your dissertation now!!)
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To: Bommer
WHAT? Using a computer for Intelligence? Send in Joe Wilson.....with lots of mint tea!

Plus, computer simulations and accounts of experiments,...

do not a bomb make.

12 posted on 11/12/2005 9:16:24 PM PST by phantomworker (All roads lead back to Rome. Boldness has genius, power &magic in it..Begin your dissertation now!!)
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To: neverdem

Thanks for the ping!


13 posted on 11/13/2005 6:07:19 AM PST by Alamo-Girl
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To: DoctorZIn

ping


14 posted on 11/13/2005 5:27:43 PM PST by neverdem (May you be in heaven a half hour before the devil knows that you're dead.)
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To: neverdem

scary stuff.


15 posted on 11/15/2005 8:30:37 AM PST by MissRepresent
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