The Flimsy Wall of China (the likely epicenter of a pandemic)

Newsweek ^ | 10/23/05 | Melinda Liu

[TigerLikesRooster]

The Flimsy Wall of China

It may be the epicenter of an epidemic, and its health-care system is in tatters. That's a recipe for disaster.

By Melinda Liu

Newsweek International

.../snip...

Zhang may be closer to getting her apocalyptic wish. Bird-flu jitters are spreading worldwide, as the tempo of new cases continues to escalate. Last Wednesday, in China's first reported H5N1 outbreak in months, mainland authorities revealed bird flu had killed 2,600 birds on a poultry farm in the Chinese province of Inner Mongolia, less than a day's drive from Zhang's home. Taiwanese authorities discovered the H5N1 virus among exotic fowl on a ship from mainland China. Suspected cases have emerged from Moscow to Macedonia.

As health officials gird for what some scientists fear could eventually turn into a global health crisis, one of the weakest links in the world's defenses is China's tattered health-care system. Many experts think China could be the epicenter of any bird-flu pandemic. Indeed, China has ideal conditions for fostering a new human flu pathogen. On top of China's 1.3 billion people, it also has 14 billion poultry and 70 percent of the world's wild waterfowl coming to visit, says Dr. Julie Hall, a WHO representative in Beijing. It also has half the world's pigs, which tend to harbor human viruses that can combine with bird-flu bugs to form human pathogens. Although Beijing said last week that it would close its borders if a mutated version of H5N1 infected humans, experts fear that the virus would slip through China's surveillance system in the first crucial weeks and quickly overwhelm its health-care system. "In big cities, control is good, but in remote areas, maybe not," says Christine Liu of Taiwan's CDC. "There's nobody to take samples, nobody to test the samples."

[TigerLikesRooster]

The ultimate breeding ground of lethal biological agents. They do it in an old-fashioned way.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Ping!

[Semper Paratus]

If there is a mutation in the PRC they will try to cover it up until it's too late.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Re #3

They would try to settle this problem their way, with bullets.

[The Red Zone]

Wal-Mart will be unhappy.

[EBH]

Pinging the Avian Surveillance List

[Holicheese]

So buying that chicken salad sandwich out of the trunk of some guys car in China Town this weekend was NOT a good idea?

[EternalHope]

The article was mostly a reminder of how vulnerable China is (and thus the whole world). Thanks for posting.

The following little nugget from WHO was buried in the article:

According to officials at the World Health Organization, to avert a pandemic that begins in China the government's surveillance system would have to detect an outbreak before it is able to infect more than 20 people, and no more than three weeks have passed since exposure.

With numbers higher than this, the virus is likely to spread too far for quarantines and antiviral treatments to be effective.

As some may recall, a study was published last summer saying a pandemic could be prevented if governments are prepared to react fast enough. It was based on a "mathematical model". As anyone who works with mathematical models knows, assumptions are the key to any mathematical model. I never saw a list of the assumptions actually used, but news reports said they assumed a "rapid" response.

Based on this little nugget from WHO, the assumptions they used for "rapid" would have to be very rapid indeed.

[Nathan Zachary]

"It may be the epicenter of an epidemic, and its health-care system is in tatters. That's a recipe for disaster."

But they have state of the art nukes, thanks to communist Bill Clinton.

On the upside, 3/4 of China's army will die from bird flu and there will be a shortage of cheap labor. The Flu could cut short China's economic boom.

[blam]

"On the upside, 3/4 of China's army will die from bird flu and there will be a shortage of cheap labor. The Flu could cut short China's economic boom."

Wouldn't it affect other countries similarily? (Eventually)

[Judith Anne]

Thanks for posting. I'm expecting h2h Avian Flu to develop and leave China this fall. Of course, it might take until next spring.

[Polyxene]

Isn't China hosting the Olympics in 2008? This bird-flu scare isn't going to help ticket sales!

[PsyOp]

The chicken sandwich is probably ok, but I'd take a good look at the Peking duck...

[Holicheese]

Thank goodness. That chicken salad really hit the spot.

I had Peking Duck once in Hong Kong. It was incredible.

[Oorang]

Thanks for the ping EBH.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Re #12

If airborne avian flu really breaks out, nobody would want to go to Olympics no matter where it is hosted, let alone Beijing. We would all be avoiding large crowd, holed up in a room surfing the net, especially FreeRepublic.:)

[bitt]

linking to today's postings at the surveillance thread...

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1399613/posts?page=1943#1930

[unseen]

Yes one reason that China will NOT report any H2H transmission. It will first appear in Thailand. Vietnam and Indonesia where at least some news gets out. But it will have come from China. The pandemic has started. The only saving grace is the form that is spreading in North Vietnam and Thailand is a mild form of the H5n1 virus. But this too can mutate.