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To: piasa
Thanks for the pings. Yossef Bodansky's Bin Laden bio has some useful stuff on Al Qaeda's activity in the Philippines and Southeast Asia. I would be very interested in whether there are any known links between the Philippine Communist groups mentioned here and the Chicoms, whose strategy in SE Asia dovetails with Al Qaeda's goals. IMO (trying to analyze this in terms of China's military goals, thinking on analogy with Japan's strategy in WWII), part of the long-term strategy in the region is to attempt to stir up enough trouble in Indonesia to inhibit US/UK naval routes through the Malacca Straits and give China naval superiority in the region, which would put a stranglehold on Japan's oil supply:

''The Emerging Cold War on Asia's High Seas'', February 13, 2006

In recent years, piracy has emerged as a large security concern, especially along the Malacca Straits, which experience 40 percent of the world's piracy.

SNIP

It would be relatively easy to cripple shipping along the Malacca Straits given that the 1,015 kilometer-long (630 miles) channel is just 2.4 kilometers (1.5 miles) wide at its narrowest point. There is a fear that an oil tanker could be used as a floating bomb and piloted into a port city such as Singapore. The decision by the London-based Lloyd's Market Association's Joint War Committee group to classify the Malacca Straits as a "war risk" in June 2004 has further highlighted the threat of piracy and terrorism along the strait. [See: "The Malacca Straits and the Threat of Maritime Terrorism"]

SNIP

China's core maritime interest in the region is to develop a sufficient force to deter Taiwan's declaration of independence, deter and delay U.S. involvement in a potential conflict over Taiwan, and ensure a swift victory in a conflict over the island. Beijing is also interested in securing the narrow Malacca Straits, through which 80 percent of China's oil imports flow, and resolving long-standing maritime territorial disputes in the region.

SNIP

China is also pushing to acquire a national fleet of Very Large Crude Carriers that could be employed in the case of supply disruptions brought on by an accident or terrorist attack along the Malacca Straits or a U.S.-led blockade during a conflict over Taiwan. Currently, only ten percent of China's crude oil imports come aboard Chinese vessels. China's growing anxiety over the security of its oil imports was demonstrated in June 2004 when China conducted its first anti-terrorism exercise simulating an attack on an oil tanker.

"WAR ON TERROR UPDATE OCT 2004", Warships International Fleet Review

America is not being prompted by paranoia, but by hard intelligence. The Australian government claims that Al-Qaeda could be planning to attack Southeast Asia's shipping lanes, including the Malacca Straits, using a dirty bomb. Al-Qaeda's interest in attacking shipping targets came to light during the interrogation of Abd al-Rahim al-Nashri, an alleged terrorist specialising in maritime operations. The group reportedly had conducted video surveillance of Malaysian police patrols along the Straits of Malacca, confirming their potential interest in the waterway. Southeast Asia is also home to the Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), the regional chapter of Al-Qaeda, accused of the deadly bomb attacks in Indonesia and the Philippines.

On top of this, the International Maritime Bureau's (IMB's) monitoring shows that piracy is focused in the South Pacific near Singapore, Indonesia and the Philippines.

SNIP

Free passage through the Malacca Straits is key to the well-being of international commerce.

For example, seaborne oil largely follows fixed maritime routes, which encompass geographic choke points or narrow channels, such as the Malacca Straits, linking the Indian Ocean (and oil coming from the Middle East) with the Pacific Ocean (and major consumer markets in Asia). According to the UN's International Maritime Organisation, at least 50,000 ships sail through the Malacca Straits every year. They transport about 30 per cent of the world's trade goods and 80 per cent of Japan's oil needs.

The last thing Japan wants is disruption in this part the world. The Malacca, Sunda and Lambok Straits are all potential maritime choke points for the Japanese economy. Tokyo has taken every step to safe-guard its oil, natural gas, coal and beef supplies. This year Japan and Indonesia reached agreement over counter-terrorism co-operation, suppressing terrorist funding, sharing intelligence and enhancing general security and immigration controls.

6 posted on 05/22/2006 9:38:14 AM PDT by Fedora
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To: Tailgunner Joe

Ping.


7 posted on 05/22/2006 9:39:29 AM PDT by Fedora
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