Actually it will probably dissipate before reaching land, but very cool regardless.
Posted on 10/09/2005 7:30:02 AM PDT by neutrality
981 WHXX01 KWBC 091252 CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL STORM VINCE (AL232005) ON 20051009 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS... 051009 1200 051010 0000 051010 1200 051011 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMD 33.8N 19.3W 34.7N 17.6W 36.0N 14.5W 37.9N 10.2W BAMM 33.8N 19.3W 34.8N 17.7W 36.2N 14.8W 38.4N 11.1W A98E 33.8N 19.3W 34.0N 18.4W 34.4N 16.2W 35.8N 12.8W LBAR 33.8N 19.3W 34.9N 17.5W 36.5N 14.9W 38.0N 11.5W SHIP 45KTS 45KTS 46KTS 47KTS DSHP 45KTS 45KTS 46KTS 47KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS... 051011 1200 051012 1200 051013 1200 051014 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMD 40.0N 5.7W 42.4N 2.9E 44.6N 8.1E 46.0N 12.3E BAMM 41.0N 7.3W 46.5N .2W 51.9N 2.7E 52.3N 3.7E A98E 36.7N 9.0W 33.4N 2.8W 34.4N 2.0E 42.2N 10.4E LBAR 38.8N 7.5W 38.1N 1.1W 38.2N 3.4E 41.3N 3.2E SHIP 48KTS 50KTS 52KTS 48KTS DSHP 35KTS 30KTS 30KTS 30KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 33.8N LONCUR = 19.3W DIRCUR = 45DEG SPDCUR = 3KT LATM12 = 33.2N LONM12 = 20.0W DIRM12 = 54DEG SPDM12 = 3KT LATM24 = 33.0N LONM24 = 20.3W WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 45KT CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 60NM
Actually it will probably dissipate before reaching land, but very cool regardless.
So how many names are left? Is there a W, or do we start with TS Alpha for the next one?
Actually it's probably subtropical storm Vince, I guess we'll know by 11am
WHXX01 KWBC 091252
CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL STORM VINCE (AL232005) ON 20051009 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051009 1200 051010 0000 051010 1200 051011 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 33.8N 19.3W 34.7N 17.6W 36.0N 14.5W 37.9N 10.2W
BAMM 33.8N 19.3W 34.8N 17.7W 36.2N 14.8W 38.4N 11.1W
A98E 33.8N 19.3W 34.0N 18.4W 34.4N 16.2W 35.8N 12.8W
LBAR 33.8N 19.3W 34.9N 17.5W 36.5N 14.9W 38.0N 11.5W
SHIP 45KTS 45KTS 46KTS 47KTS
DSHP 45KTS 45KTS 46KTS 47KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051011 1200 051012 1200 051013 1200 051014 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 40.0N 5.7W 42.4N 2.9E 44.6N 8.1E 46.0N 12.3E
BAMM 41.0N 7.3W 46.5N .2W 51.9N 2.7E 52.3N 3.7E
A98E 36.7N 9.0W 33.4N 2.8W 34.4N 2.0E 42.2N 10.4E
LBAR 38.8N 7.5W 38.1N 1.1W 38.2N 3.4E 41.3N 3.2E
SHIP 48KTS 50KTS 52KTS 48KTS
DSHP 35KTS 30KTS 30KTS 30KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 33.8N LONCUR = 19.3W DIRCUR = 45DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 33.2N LONM12 = 20.0W DIRM12 = 54DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 33.0N LONM24 = 20.3W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 60NM
The NHC model runs at the synoptic times (0Z, 6Z, 12Z, 18Z) will typically indicate the upgrade or initiation of a storm a couple hours before the actual official advisory comes out. Also, the FNMOC and NRL satellite sites will indicate it at the same time.
So, generally, once you're aware of the above, you'll know about a new TD or TS 2-3 hours before people who just go to the NHC site or mirror sites and read the advisories.
Yes, its "Wilma". Then the greek alphabet.
...20th named storm of the season forms in an unusual location... in the far eastern Atlantic southeast of the Azores and close to the Madeira islands...
Satellite imagery indicates that the previously non-tropical low pressure system between the Azores and the Canary Islands has acquired tropical characteristics and become a tropical storm.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Vince was located near latitude 34.0 north... longitude 19.2 west or about 515 miles... 830 km... east-southeast of the Azores. This position is also about 140 miles... 225 km... northwest of the Madeira islands.
Vince is moving toward the northeast near 5 mph... 7 km/hr. A continued northeastward motion and a gradual increase in forward speed are expected during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph... 85 km/hr... with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles... 110 km from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb...29.56 inches.
Repeating the 11 am EDT position...34.0 N... 19.2 W. Movement toward...northeast near 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 50 mph. Minimum central pressure...1001 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 PM EDT.
Forecaster Knabb
the low pressure system of non-tropical origin that has been nearly stationary in the far eastern Atlantic... in between the Azores and the Canary Islands... has been acquiring tropical characteristics during the past 24 hours or so. Whether or not this system is now a tropical or a subtropical storm is somewhat of a subjective determination. Even though this system is situated over sea surface temperatures of 23-24 celsius and is beneath a large mid/upper level trough... it now has several characteristics that warrant classification as Tropical Storm Vince. The cyclone is isolated and is quite symmetric with a small radius of maximum winds... perhaps 20-25 N mi... and while it is embedded within a larger envelope of cyclonic flow at the surface... the inner core of convection only has a diameter of about 100 N mi. Upper level anticyclonic flow is not apparent on satellite animations... but a 07z AMSU overpass reveals a weak upper level warm core. Cyclone phase space analyses from Florida State University indicate this system is symmetric and not very far on the cold core side of the spectrum.
The initial intensity of 45 kt is supported by a 0640z Quikscat overpass and by subtropical satellite classifications from TAFB and SAB of 3.0 based on the Hebert-poteat technique. Since subtropical classifications have been made on this system for the past day or so... Vince could easily be deemed to have become a subtropical storm yesterday. Vince has been cut off from the midlatitude westerlies for the past couple of days... but now seems to be moving northeastward at about 4 kt. A gradual increase in forward speed along this same heading is expected until Vince merges with a frontal system approaching from the northwest.
Forecaster Knabb
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 09/1500z 34.0n 19.2w 45 kt 12hr VT 10/0000z 34.7n 18.3w 45 kt 24hr VT 10/1200z 36.3n 16.1w 45 kt 36hr VT 11/0000z 39.1n 13.6w 45 kt...extratropical 48hr VT 11/1200z...absorbed by front
$$
See discussion number 1
Are the Azores in its path?
Well that sure cleared things up!! :)
It would be kinda neat if a hurricane hit Lisbon, in a novelty sort of way of course. Actually, it'd be pretty bad, since that part of Europe is not at all equipped to handle it.
At least this one should spare the U.S.
Not that I wish a storm on anyone - but the US really does need a break :)
WTNT33 KNHC 092048
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE VINCE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005
...VINCE BECOMES A HURRICANE WHILE PASSING NORTHWEST OF THE MADEIRA
ISLANDS...
...MAINLY A HAZARD FOR MARINE INTERESTS IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE VINCE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 18.6 WEST OR ABOUT 535 MILES...
865 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE AZORES. THIS POSITION IS ALSO
ABOUT 125 MILES... 200 KM... NORTHWEST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS.
VINCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TONIGHT... BUT VINCE
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES... 130 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...34.2 N... 18.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER KNABB
if it looks like a hurricane... it probably is... despite its environment and unusual location. Most available data suggests Vince has been strengthening today. In fact... the CIRA intensity estimate based on the earlier AMSU overpass near 07z was 50 kt and 995 mb... so Vince was probably even a little stronger this morning than indicated in the previous advisory. More recently... metsat-8 imagery reveals that the earlier ragged eye feature with about 20 N mi diameter has contracted to 15 N mi as a Bona fide eye. Some anticyclonic outflow aloft is now discernible around the deep convection... although the convective tops remain a bit warmer than in most hurricanes. Subjective and objective Dvorak T numbers range from 3.5 to 4.5... with the higher end of this range based on an eye pattern. These estimates provide the basis for the advisory intensity of 65 kt. It is not clear if the surface winds are as strong as the satellite signature would normally suggest... especially since the convection might lack some vigor over the 23-24c SSTs... but we have no data to confirm or deny the Dvorak estimates.
Vince is still moving northeastward but not very fast... about 045/5... so it could maintain hurricane intensity for several hours while its oceanic and atmospheric environment changes little. Vince is then forecast to weaken gradually as it moves over even cooler waters and northwesterly shear ramps up. A cold front is several hundred N mi northwest of Vince... and as the front continues its eastward March across the northern Atlantic... it should pull Vince northeastward at a gradually increasing forward speed. Most of the dynamical models agree with this scenario and suggest that Vince will be absorbed by the front in about 36 hours... but it could take a little longer for the small circulation of Vince to completely lose its indentity.
Forecaster Knabb
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 09/2100z 34.2n 18.6w 65 kt 12hr VT 10/0600z 35.4n 17.1w 65 kt 24hr VT 10/1800z 37.6n 14.5w 60 kt 36hr VT 11/0600z 40.5n 11.0w 55 kt...extratropical 48hr VT 11/1800z...absorbed by front
$$
I know we are tired of hearing it, but this is definitely Bush's fault! Hope the Seine gets out of its banks. Just kidding, but it's a humorous thought.
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