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Al-Qaeda's ‘Bowing-Out' Strategy
The Jamestown Foundation ^ | 9/19/05 | Stephen Ulph

Posted on 09/23/2005 8:32:47 AM PDT by Valin

The recent release of a tape featuring the address by an American al-Qaeda member ‘Azam' (thought to be Adam Gadahn, who earlier broadcast a message prior to the 2004 US elections threatening large scale terror attacks) has been evaluated by some analysts as demonstrating a sense of frustration in the movement. In particular the frustration is over the lack of debate in the West about the long-term political aims of al-Qaeda and the jihad.

The mujahideen are equally busy analyzing the latest statements from the al-Qaeda leadership. While the theme of Western incomprehension is present, predictably, the analyses are more positive and optimistic in tone, consistent with the perception of the immutable logic of the jihadi cause. The idea that the September 11, 2001 attacks on New York and Washington backfired on al-Qaeda, in that they subsequently lost their base in Afghanistan without exciting a mass pan-Islamic movement against the West, finds no resonance. But with an admixture of fantasy that compensates for a lack of facts, the image of a waning al-Qaeda is given a new twist.

An interesting example is a recent posting on the jihadi forum Risalat al-Umma by the user Sayf Allah. Under the provocative title: "Al-Qaeda organization is now finished," the jihadi analyst speaks of a new phase "which the infidels are unaware of, or do not wish to believe." He claims that al-Qaeda has, and has always had, a specific aim: to galvanize the sleeping corpse of the Islamic Nation and remove the corrosive body of Western influence. To that end, the 9/11 attacks were designed "to force the Western snake to bite the sleeping body, and wake it up;" a strategy which he evaluates as having turned out highly successful. The "end of al-Qaeda" is, therefore, the end of this galvanizing role. Infidels, the analyst explains, "are still fixated on fighting individuals, oblivious to the fact that they are actually fighting an idea, one that has spread across the globe like fire and which is embraced even by those whose faith is a mustard seed." His conclusion is that Western strategies to fight al-Qaeda are therefore illusory (or are a deliberate self-deception) in that al-Qaeda is no longer operative as a strategic body, but rather "the Islamic Nation's men, women and children are all now ‘al-Qaeda.'" [www.alommh.net]

This theme of the ‘end' was also developed by Sayf Allah Usama and published by the Global Islamic Media Front. Taking as his cue the statement made to the Arabic satellite channel al-Jazeera on the July 7 attacks on London by al-Qaeda's number two, Ayman al-Zawahiri, the author defends al-Zawahiri and al-Qaeda from criticism of ideological bankruptcy resulting from the loss of their base. Instead, he suggests that al-Zawahiri was explaining al-Qaeda's strategic program and purpose. The reason for this, he explains, is that he became particularly intrigued by al-Zawahiri's focus on historical matters and his account of al-Qaeda's struggle—"an unusual thing for one who speaks constantly of the present and of the future." There can be, he states, only one reason for this: "the [al-Qaeda] organization is about to exit the portal of history, to re-enter in another form, but with different forces, in a grander struggle with the infidel."

Under this interpretation, al-Zawahiri has "signed the exit visa of al-Qaeda, so that it now is to become a page in the history of Muslims—the beginning of a new era." This ‘signing off' is part of the original plan; to "revive the [Islamic] Nation and prepare it for a comprehensive confrontation with the Kuffar" on a scale larger than what has been waged up to now against apostate elements in individual countries. The confrontation is the final scene, "to be played by al-Qaeda against world Unbelief—the smashing of the great idol [the United States of America]." The author then lists some of the aims and achievements of al-Qaeda:

· The joining of efforts against the head of Unbelief, America; · Instilling freedom from defeatism among the Muslim youth, through the attacks on New York and Washington; · Drawing the American enemy outside its borders and casting it into the Islamic swamp, so as to expose the truth about the artificial ‘truce' between Muslims and the Unbelievers; · Whetting the appetite of the youth to go to Iraq to form a new front, in order to make the U.S. military taste what the Soviets tasted in Afghanistan; · Detaching America from its Crusader roots in Europe and Australia, by punishing rebel states who participated alongside America in its attack on Iraq; thus inducing terror of al-Qaeda and the gradual disassociation from her great enemy [the USA] and withdrawal of their support for it; · Getting Muslim masses used to the idea that al-Qaeda can reach anyone who harms them; ending the assumption that Western victory is assured; and bringing the battle to its climax.

The grand conflict with the great idol, according to the jihadi analyst, is in two stages, each bearing symbolic similarities to the other as a struggle of a weaker party against a stronger. If the first stage of the struggle was one fought in mountains and caves and hideouts, the second and final stage of the struggle is one conducted "with the full economic, military and political force of the Islamic nations."

According to this analysis, al-Zawahiri's speech comes at a pivotal moment in the great conflict of the Islamic Nation against "the primary forces in the world defending the Cross." It is the "final, legal, call to the arrogant Americans to avoid the dreadful destruction which will befall them, after which al-Qaeda cannot be blamed for its actions against those who do not leave the Islamic Nation alone." For the nations allied to the United States, they too should know that their time is coming, and that they will be picked off one by one, after the stoutest fortress of the Cross is destroyed.

But al-Zawahiri's address also marks the end of the ‘al-Qaeda' phase of this great conflict. After it has passed, the analyst concludes, having served its galvanizing purpose, it will metaphorically re-enter the portal of history, but ‘in a more resplendent, stronger form, in the guise of the liberated Muslim masses taking vengeance on their servitude to the West and on America, the scourge of their countries.'

Far from frustration at the failure of the al-Qaeda program to galvanize the Nation, Sayf Allah Usama is confident that this has already been achieved. For the jihadist contemplating al-Qaeda's ebb, it should be regarded as "the exit of heroes, and the re-entry of their souls into a new phase of the struggle waged by revived Muslims, rising proud after their humiliation, assured of their victory against the great enemy and the fool of the era, America." [www.alommh.net]


TOPICS: Extended News; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: alqaeda; alqaedastrategy; gadahn; globaljihad
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1 posted on 09/23/2005 8:32:48 AM PDT by Valin
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To: Valin

I have been wondering why Ted Kennedy has not demanded the exit stragity by the muslims.


2 posted on 09/23/2005 8:35:17 AM PDT by edcoil (Reality doesn't say much - doesn't need too)
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To: Valin

It's not so much a bowing out as al Qaeda making the best of a bad situation. The core leadership was destroyed in Afghanistan, so the lower-level operatives dispersed to hot spots all around the world to create mini-al Qaedas. Globalization cuts both ways.


3 posted on 09/23/2005 8:35:51 AM PDT by Lejes Rimul (Paleo and Proud)
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To: Lejes Rimul

Exactly, their little cub scout pack has cut & run.


4 posted on 09/23/2005 8:39:57 AM PDT by norraad ("What light!">Blues Brothers)
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To: Valin

"Nice venomous, hateful article. Bring it on diaperhead!"


5 posted on 09/23/2005 8:44:24 AM PDT by RightResponse (What if the Left, just got up and .....)
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To: Valin

A delusional article.


6 posted on 09/23/2005 8:47:39 AM PDT by Williams
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To: Valin
Such piffle...they are saying "we PLANNED on losing"...Kerry must have had input on this fantasy...
7 posted on 09/23/2005 8:49:28 AM PDT by Edgerunner (Proud to be an infidel)
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To: Lejes Rimul

so the lower-level operatives dispersed to hot spots all around the world to create mini-al Qaedas.


One the the reasons I this the iceberg war, it's being fought in small out of the way places that never really make the news,and by people who last wish is to see their names in the news.


Globalization cuts both ways.

It is the darkside.


8 posted on 09/23/2005 8:52:00 AM PDT by Valin (The right to do something does not mean that doing it is right.)
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To: Edgerunner

Did we read the same article?


9 posted on 09/23/2005 8:53:01 AM PDT by Valin (The right to do something does not mean that doing it is right.)
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To: Valin
Under this interpretation, al-Zawahiri has "signed the exit visa of al-Qaeda, so that it now is to become a page in the history of Muslims

Zawahiri just announced that al-Qaeda is history. It didn't work. So they must move to Plan B.

Plan B is to work in the shadows, to prepare another 911. They've learned from the previous one, that to have an effect it has to be much bigger, it has to be big enough to overload the country's emergency systems.

They've also learned that they can count on the Left in this country, the press, the left half of Congress, to do their heavy lifting for them. They've learned that they can affect elections in Europe at least, they've learned where they can more freely and where they can't. They've learned that they can find refuge in Latin America and in southern Africa, in Syria, in Iran, in Pakistan, in Canada, they've learned that there is a big open border that they can cross freely into the US.

10 posted on 09/23/2005 8:53:26 AM PDT by marron
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To: Valin

I suspect that the real reason al Qaeda doesn't seem to be active in the United States is that they're having trouble with their transition to PeopleSoft software.


11 posted on 09/23/2005 8:55:29 AM PDT by megatherium
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To: Valin

"Victory by self immolation! Yeaaahhh us!"


12 posted on 09/23/2005 8:57:52 AM PDT by Daus
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To: Valin

Don't sell these a..holes short. With 1.2 B islamofascists, they can create quite a ruckus worldwide. They've got weapons pre-deployed around the world...all the stuff the libs have been keeping out of the hands of our citizens. By triggering worldwide jihad, they create the opportunity to eradicate the sadistic, demonic cult of islam in the free world. Be armed and be alert.


13 posted on 09/23/2005 8:58:15 AM PDT by kimosabe31
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To: megatherium
I suspect that the real reason al Qaeda doesn't seem to be active in the United States is that they're having trouble with their transition to PeopleSoft software.

:) I agree. Though I think this is just Zawahiri's Puff Daddy phase, where they will just change their name to 'Diddy'.
14 posted on 09/23/2005 9:01:06 AM PDT by Daus
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To: Williams

The article isn't delusional. It's an attempt to explain what the al Qaeda leadership and other fanatical Muslims are currently thinking. It's always a good idea to know your enemy.

Al Qaeda has not achieved what it claims here, and could be called delusional, but it has achieved some of its goals despite our victories in Afghanistan and Iraq. It has revealed the weakness and corruption of Europe, especially France, Germany, Belgium, and Luxembourg. It has activated leftists all over the world in support of their cause. It has stirred up the Muslim world, which is now waiting to see what the west will do over the long run--fight or back down.

It has not intimidated the United States, or President Bush, but it has made it extremely difficult for Bush to move forward to the next logical stage of the war without taking political damage and possibly handing the government over to the Democrats. We should long since have toppled the Syrian regime and supported a revolution against the Mullahs in Iran. Instead we have sat on our hands for the past year or two, because it's not clear whether the voters will support these necessary steps, misinformed as they are by the liars in the media.

It remains to be seen how all this will work out. The liars in the media, in cooperation with the DNC, will do everything they can to give al Qaeda a victory, and it's hard for Bush to get his message out when 95% of the media hate him and undermine him at every opportunity--and manufacture opportunities at the rate of about one a week.


15 posted on 09/23/2005 9:01:36 AM PDT by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: kimosabe31

With 1.2 B islamofascists, they can create quite a ruckus worldwide.

Sources please.


16 posted on 09/23/2005 9:02:05 AM PDT by Valin (The right to do something does not mean that doing it is right.)
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To: Valin

"According to this analysis, al-Zawahiri's speech comes at a pivotal moment in the great conflict of the Islamic Nation against "the primary forces in the world defending the Cross." It is the "final, legal, call to the arrogant Americans to avoid the dreadful destruction which will befall them, after which al-Qaeda cannot be blamed for its actions against those who do not leave the Islamic Nation alone." For the nations allied to the United States, they too should know that their time is coming, and that they will be picked off one by one, after the stoutest fortress of the Cross is destroyed."


These towelheads really seem to believe that they will wreak "mass destruction" upon the U.S. and that the effect will be the toppling of our great nation? BAH! Plus, I get a ROBUST kick out of their claim "al-Qaeda cannot be blamed for its actions against those who do not leave the Islamic Nation alone" WOW! Leave the ISLAMIC NATION alone? Hello! You radical Islamo-fascists were the ones who INSTIGATED this conflict you pathetic cockroaches!

What is TRULY sad is that the lefties are probably gonna use this propaganda to attempt to elicit even MORE anti-war sympathizers than already exist...


17 posted on 09/23/2005 9:02:30 AM PDT by EnigmaticAnomaly ("“When you see a rattlesnake poised to strike, don't wait until it has struck before you crush it)
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To: Valin

"JUST A FLESH WOUND".


18 posted on 09/23/2005 9:02:51 AM PDT by Tom Bombadil
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To: EnigmaticAnomaly

Here's the problem, we left them alone for way to long. going back to the Iranian revolution..Beirut bombings...withdrawal from Afghanistan....


Well they finaly got our attention.


19 posted on 09/23/2005 9:08:41 AM PDT by Valin (The right to do something does not mean that doing it is right.)
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To: Valin; Squantos; Travis McGee; Eaker; TomasUSMC; kellynla

A new law needs to be introduced and passed:

It would allow the hunting and destruction of any individual who openly threatens an act of terrorism or war against the United States....

The lunatic Islamists need to suffer some serious consequence for their outlandish posturing and violent threats....

Declaring "Open Season" on these assholes, would give us idle retirees something productive and enjoyable to do in our twilight years.....

The "Feds" could keep an official online roster of all those Islamist lunatics and terrorists deamed to be dangerous "Enemies of the Republic and Civilization"...

Semper Fi


20 posted on 09/23/2005 9:13:31 AM PDT by river rat (You may turn the other cheek, but I prefer to look into my enemy's vacant dead eyes.)
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