So Labor's 61 votes can trump National's 61 vote grouping that I outllined? How would this work?
From here, the Governor General has to assess who is in a better position to form a government. Clark can get to 61 votes with Maori, Progressives and Greens. National can get to 54 with ACT and United Future. New Zealand First has stated it will not be in a coalition, and will support the party with the most votes on confidence and supply issues.
So, if the Governor General believes Labour is in the best position to form a government, Helen's PM. As the governing party, they appoint the Speaker of the House of Representatives. In the past when it has been this close the governing coalition appoints a member of the oposition to be Speaker of the House. The Speaker does not vote, unless there is a tie. With a National Party Speaker, the votes are 61 Labour/Green/Coalition/Progressive and 60 everyone else.
Even if there is a tie in electing a party to government (say National, NZF, ACT and United Future do ally in a coalition, meaning Winston Peters breaks his election promises), I believe the Governor General is supposed to appoint the government to the coalition including the party which got the most votes, which is Labour.
I'd be very surprised if the specials swing it away from Labour, The only possible swing would be the Maori party siding with National, which is unlikely given National ran on abolishing the Maori seats and imposing a cut-off date for Treaty of Waitangi claims.