Posted on 09/16/2005 7:51:13 AM PDT by GOPGuide
A centre-right coalition sought by German conservative leader Angela Merkel is running marginally ahead of the other main parties before Sunday's general election, according to two polls released on Friday.
A poll by Forsa for RTL television indicated support for Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU), their sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU) and their liberal Free Democrat allies (FDP) at 48 to 51 percent.
Combined support for Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's Social Democrats, the Greens and the new Left Party stood at 45 to 49 percent, the poll indicated.
Forsa said the SPD had slipped slightly since its poll last week, while the centre-right alliance had risen a touch.
A new poll from Allensbach for the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, almost certainly the last to be published before Sunday's election, gave Merkel's coalition 49.5 percent of the vote, compared with 48 percent for the three other main parties.
Because fringe parties with less than five percent will fail to gain seats in parliament, a figure of around 49 percent is likely to be enough to secure a majority.
However, the poll for RTL, conducted this Monday to Friday, indicated that a quarter of voters had not decided whether they would vote on Sunday or which party they would back. The uncertainty was greater due to the presence of the Left Party.
"Even if many of the undecided end up not voting, this share of 'don't knows' suggests voters are still wavering right up to the election," Forsa head Manfred Guellner said in a statement.
The Forsa poll gave only ranges of support rather than precise numbers -- the CDU/CSU on 41-43 percent, the SPD on 32-34 percent, the Greens on 6-7 percent, the FDP at 7-8 percent and the new Left Party on 7-8 percent.
The Allensbach poll, conducted from Saturday to Thursday, placed the CDU/CSU at 41.5 percent, the SPD on 32.5 percent, the Greens on 7.0 percent, the FDP at 8.0 percent and the Left Party on 8.5 percent.
Exit polls will be published immediately after voting closes at 6 p.m. (1600 GMT) on Sunday.
I'm sticking to my 1.5% victory for the combined CDU/CSU/FDP parties over the SPD/Linke/Grune. :)
Bump!
It's looking very good!
Very good indeed!
this poll By the way, was taken from Sept 10-15.
See more at Bloomberg:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000100&sid=aoX9_gGsq_Ok&refer=germany
bttt
Isn't this the lady they describe as the German Margaret Thatcher?...........
I hope and pray you're right.
Yes, it is. And the description is totally wrong!
I'm loving it!
fingers crossed, fingers crossed.
How is the description wrong? I liked Thatcher, obviously.
It is disgusting here in Germany. Schroeder has been doing interviews with the turkish newspapers to try and get the 600,000 turks living in Germany to vote for him.
I am an American and have lived here for about 2 years. I can't wait until February when I return to the USA. The people here are the whinniest(spelling, never really tried to spell that word before) I have ever seen. Not all of them but in general. They complain about everything from the whipped cream in their milche kaffee to GWB. I have had it with them.
The ones I know that have jobs and work instead of living off the dole want Merkel to win. Just because they realise that you can not just give money out and keep giving it out. Someone has to pay for it now or later but eventually.
Don't even get me started on what they think of the USA and it has a lot to do with reporting. I had to straighten out some youngsters one time when they started in on me about GWB and his war mongering. Ifin they were 18 years old I would have beat there asses. But they weren't and I can only hope I gave them something to think on for their future.
Sorry for the rant.
Germany is in a huge economic slup. It's image in Europe is tarnished. The US/German relations are at an all time low. But yet the party (SPD/Greens) which lead Germany down this path for the last seven years is getting enough support from the "Volk" that a victory for Merkel will only be marginal.
What does this really say about the German people?
Red6
Buh bye, Gerhard. Now if Helen Clark can lose in NZ tomorrow too, it'll be a leftist double whammy.
She wants to raise VAT taxes, but restore ties with the US. A mixed bag, I guess.
Schroeder also used the Turks in his anti-war game in 2002. He promised them EU membership support in return for a "No" to US money to use their soil for a Northern Front.
Most Germans will deny it, especially those who are self proclaimed conservatives, yet Schroeder in 2002 as well as today is making political capital on an anti-American agenda. Worse yet, the German people are responding well to it. As asked in my earlier post, what does this say about them?
In the past Germany was always an ally, yet never carried its own weight. Today they want to be an ally and even sit in the same boat with us in near all issues, but think they have the right to backstab us because they are a sovereign nation. That is significantly different from 1985.
Red6
In Hamburg there is a very conservative local political party that always take a few districts in the "First Vote" and gets 2 or 3 members of parliament. But "Second Votes" for this party would be wasted conservative votes.
I think it is good news that the 49:48 polling does not add up to 100%, meaning that nonsense parties like the NPD (Neonazis) and the true communist parties are cluttering up the remaining 3% of the polling but will NOT count at all on Sunday's final results because of the 5% rule that each party has to have to win any seats at all (unless one of their people gets directly elected somewhere).
So 49:48, really means 51.5:49.5 in favor of the conservatives. Mathematically, you MUST make this calculation. The problem is: that is too close with 25% of the population undecided.
What if they are only undecided between the Greens and the Linkspartei? That is a big thing to fear. The undecideds could easily be mostly lefties wondering whether to be loyal or radical.
But something good to fear is in play as well. If the undecideds are all wondering if they will vote for the Greens or the Linkspartei (commies), then the CDU wins the direct vote in almost every district of the country (the left having split itself into 3 groups). The SPD can only win a lot of direct elections in individual districts (first votes) if undecideds in that district decide to be loyal to the SPD in order to keep the CDU from winning by default the way Clinton beat Bush in 1992 because of Perot.
I think the preliminary results (Hochrechnungen) start coming in around 8PM German time on Sunday.
I found this web site a few months ago....probably here on FR. I'm not saying I believe in it. I just find it interesting. See what you think.
http://www.revelation13.net/KingJames2d.html
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