Hurricane/TS Katrina Live Thread, Part II

NHC - NOAA ^ | 26 August 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Katrina is emerging into the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico early this morning after making landfall in SE Florida, then tracking SW. Thus far, she is well ahead of schedule, leaving at least four fatalities in her wake, and well over 1 million without electricity.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida

Images:

Key West Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Excellent South FL radar loop

Tampa Bay Long Range Radar Loop

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[oceanview]

folks in NO need to hope this thing starts turning north fast - before it can move further west.

[dogbyte12]

They are very conservative. They don't go all the way in the direction the new models go because often the models go back.

The new forecast position is basically a compromise between the old model and the new if that makes sense. Or so I have read.

[mhking]

My granddad grew up in a town south of New Orleans - Ironton (one of those where most everyone is related to each other -- anyone wants to get married, they head across the river to find a spouse). They ride these things out regularly, but I am really afraid on this one. We've got other relatives up in town, and I'm really afraid for them...

[silentknight]

It is extremely unlikely that a Cat 4/5 will hit N.O. dead on. The odds are in the favor of the city. Course one day the game will be up :) heh

[LA Woman3]

Blanco declares state of emergency as Katrina shifts west
http://www.nola.com/newslogs/weather/
The governor this evening has declared a state of emergency as a major shift west in the projected track of Hurricane Katrina threatens Southeastern Louisiana.

At 5 p.m. federal forecasters made a significant westward shift in the projected path of Katrina, moving the New Orleans area much nearer the center of the cone of warning, with projected landfall now in the Biloxi area.

[ShorelineMike]

See the red dot (third from left) that's just above above the "30N" line? For all intents and purposes, that dot is right over New Orleans.

[Dog Gone]

Right about where that red line crosses into the state, but several miles north. It doesn't really matter. New Orleans is below sea level.

[Prolifeconservative]

"why wouldn't they leave?"

There are various reasons. Most won't leave because of economic reasons, they just flatly can't afford it. Others have this false bravado after having so many close calls and dodging the bullet, there is a sense of invincibility. There is yet another attitude with the fisherman, the duck hunters, and the tough minded with a boat in their driveway......their attitude is they can handle anything that comes their way and a little ole hurricane ain't about to make them change their ways.

[Dog Gone]

It was early this afternoon. Even the governor said, "don't worry."

They had better change their tune.

[oceanview]

how can it be "extremely unlikely" - look at these model tracks, half of them bring it in over NO or even west of NO, which would mean NO would be in the eastern part of the eye wall.

[Flux Capacitor]

----It is extremely unlikely that a Cat 4/5 will hit N.O. dead on. The odds are in the favor of the city.----

They might be, if N.O. hadn't already been dodging this particular bullet for 300 years. That city's living on borrowed time.

-Dan

[silentknight]

Quote "how can it be "extremely unlikely" - look at these model tracks, half of them bring it in over NO or even west of NO, which would mean NO would be in the eastern part of the eye wall."

Extremely unlikely for N.O. to take a direct hit from a Cat 4 or 5 hurricane. Why do I say that? When was the last time that happened?

The odds are in the favor of the city. Again though there will come a day....

[silentknight]

I believe this storm will be further east than the models are showing.

[silentknight]

I believe this storm will be further east than the models are showing.

[rollo tomasi]

As for New Orleans the current purple track, Limited area Barotropic, would be worst case scenario. NO would almost get a direct hit (Depending on the size of the eye) and would be nailed by the North East side of the hurricane.

Far to early to tell where the hurricane is going. If you live by the coast between LA and Northwest FL make evacuation plans pronto.

[MOgirl]

Hello,

You have every reason to be afraid, have you called your family there and urged them to try move north until the danger has past? I know that is not always easy to do, but this looks like it could be a real problem. My thoughts and prayers are with you and your family during this scary time.

Glad to be here, praying for my southern neighbors, MOgirl

[Flux Capacitor]

----Blanco declares state of emergency as Katrina shifts west----

I declared a state of emergency the day she took office. :)

-Dan

[ClearBlueSky]

Thank you for your prayers,Mogirl. It's bad enough to be a 'target' for a storm without hearing so many- especially in the media- positively SALIVATING at the thought of a direct hit and a major disaster.
N.O. is a poor city, and we are not exactly surrounded by metropolises that could absorb our population. For Ivan people went as far as Memphis and Texas and couldn't find hotel rooms. And those were the people who could afford 5-7 days travel and hotel expenses, so many cannot-myself included.
As someone whose ancestors founded this city , I think it's incredible that a million people are just expected to hit the road EVERY time a storm threatens! That just isn't logistically, or financially, feasible.
It's a terrible thing to sit here and think about your life and everything you own being theatened by weather. And there are many who have NO transportation, nowhere to go and no $$ to stay out of town 5 days or more. How many budgets could take a huge road trip, and hotel expenses every month- or more?
So please- when talking about New Orleans- as 'exciting' as weather is to those who simply study these storms- please remember that LIVES are affected by each one, and the fear and helpless feelings are terrible.

[PennsylvaniaMom]

Congratulations and God Bless!!! Wonderful news!!!

[LA Woman3]

LOL! I so wish we had Bobby!