Hurricane/TS Katrina Live Thread, Part II

NHC - NOAA ^ | 26 August 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Katrina is emerging into the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico early this morning after making landfall in SE Florida, then tracking SW. Thus far, she is well ahead of schedule, leaving at least four fatalities in her wake, and well over 1 million without electricity.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida

Images:

Key West Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Excellent South FL radar loop

Tampa Bay Long Range Radar Loop

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[realpatriot]

Ain't Google Earth great?!

BTW, graphics are fine with me, but then I'm DSL. Who knows what I'll be after Katrina!

[Prolifeconservative]

"Anyone using this or any other hurricane thread for important information is prob asking for trouble."

I follow each and every one of Nauti's hurricane's threads and I will say this.......people posting here are 2-3 three hours ahead of local and National forecasts, models, changes, etc. Pay close attention to some of these posters here, they seem to have a real good clue. I don't know where or how they cull their information and don't care, I just know they are ahead of the National guys. Go back and re-read this thread and you will see some were clearly calling for a more westwardly track hours before it was National news. I love these threads!!!

[shield]

No Problem ... ;o)

[MagnoliaMS]

I" crawled under the house one day to have a look at where the basement begins and ends...lol.

You didn't. Please tell me you didn't do that. lol. You are much braver than I. I have only seen two moccasins this year, and they were on the same day, about 10 minutes apart, believe it or not! One was in my neighbor's yard, and the other in the back part of my yard. Thank God for another neighbor who is brave! He dispatched both of them to the happy slinking grounds.

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Katrina Intermediate Advisory Number 14a...Corrected
Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on August 26, 2005

 
...Corrected to remove reference to hurricane status in location...

...Katrina gradually moving away from South Florida...

 
a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys
and Florida Bay from Key Largo south and westward to Key West and
the Dry Tortugas.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 

At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Hurricane Katrina was located
near latitude 24.7 north... longitude 83.3 west or about 100
miles... west of Key West Florida.

 
Katrina continues to move toward the west-southwest near  8 mph.
This motion is forecast to continue this evening.  A gradual turn
toward the west is expected on Saturday.

 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph...with higher gusts.
Katrina is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and
Katrina is forecast to become a category three...major... hurricane
today and on Saturday.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  25 miles... from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to  85
miles.  Sustained winds of tropical storm-force are still occurring
across the lower Florida Keys.

 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb...28.50 inches.

 
Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels...
can be expected along the southwest coast of Florida in areas of
onshore flow east of Cape Sable... and in Florida Bay.  Storm surge
will gradually subside tonight.

 
Katrina is expected to produce additional rainfall of 5 to 8 inches
over the lower Florida Keys...with isolated storm total amounts of
15 to 20 inches. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are expected
over northwestern Cuba...and 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is expected
over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

 
Isolated tornadoes are possible this afternoon and tonight over the
Florida Keys.

 
Repeating the 8 PM EDT position...24.7 N... 83.3 W.  Movement
toward...west-southwest near  8 mph.  Maximum sustained winds...100
mph.  Minimum central pressure... 965 mb.

 
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 PM EDT.

 
Forecaster Avila

[dogbyte12]

Bamm,GFDL, GFS all ran at 2PM. All are predicting Louisiana landfall for what it's worth.

[NautiNurse]

Ominous. If we go with past experience, the storms have mostly landed east of the models this far out.

[aBootes]

Louisiana landfall

And I gather that the red line, which more-or-less passes over New Orleans, is some kind of an average?

[realpatriot]

All are predicting Louisiana landfall for what it's worth.

Spoken like a guy obviously not from Mississippi!

[NautiNurse]

LOL!

[dogbyte12]

The orange and blue tracks were done with this morning's data. The other three including the red one were updated this afternoon. These will change again. Anybody near anywhere in the watch zone should be getting prepared. These things can move rapidly. You could go to bed Saturday night feeling safe, and wake up in the morning at center mass.

I am a bit nervous because of flooding. I live on top of a bayou in SE Louisiana. I am enough inland, about 30 miles from the coast not to worry too deeply about catostrophic wind damage, but it will be bad enough if it hits here.

[SauronOfMordor]

re: westerly track: yes it's interesting that the forcasters are finally moving their forcast west towards New Orleans

[NautiNurse]

The 'average' would be the NHC projected track

[oceanview]

its going into new orleans it looks like? as a cat4? oh man:

[silentknight]

That may be but the best place for emergecny information is not on freepers. Not saying there isn't great stuff no here...but don't advise people to just get their information from here. That is all I am saying.

[aBootes]

orange and blue tracks were done with this morning's data

Thanks. So there is a genuine westward shift in the models. I will continue to watch from the safety of central Maryland. Wishing you, however, all the best!

[Howlin]

Yes, it is.

After this hurricane, I'm hoping we can have a thread over in Chat where Spiff and some of you guys can teach the rest of us how to use it!

[SauronOfMordor]

That may be but the best place for emergecny information is not on freepers.

This thread points to the official information from NOAA. Something the average person might not know how to get to directly. I think it's a better source than the average local weatherman

[STARWISE]

Possible ... my error message implied I could only load with Explorer .. so I switched to that and it loaded fine.

[silentknight]

Do you have those google maps with a SATELLITE overlay?

Thanks