Posted on 08/25/2005 11:51:53 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Katrina is emerging into the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico early this morning after making landfall in SE Florida, then tracking SW. Thus far, she is well ahead of schedule, leaving at least four fatalities in her wake, and well over 1 million without electricity.
The following links are self-updating.
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Images:
Key West Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait
Tampa Bay Long Range Radar Loop
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Other Resources:
Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
sw
"Seriously..has Bastardi EVER been right?"
When he says that the grocery stores will get cleaned out of bread and milk he's usually right. Doesn't mean anything actually happens though.
He likes to hype, but he knows his stuff.
12z GFS says, "Uh Oh New Orleans:"
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p06_072m.gif
I'm here on Sugarloaf key, 17 miles north of Key West. We have sustained winds of 65-70 right now and some real heavy gusts to 80 or so. Power been on and off all morning. Katrina just upgraded to 100mph and virtually moving nowhere according to local radar.
Of course, at this rate, we're gonna get hammered pretty good...
That's pretty reassuring for those of us in Texas, and really bad news for somebody else.
wow!
I'll take a look at what folks with more sense say over on Hurricane City's boards and see what makes more sense...
The GFS is suggesting goodbye to New Orleans if Katrina reaches Cat 4 like I suspect.
I think this has at least Cat 4 written all over it. It just depends upon the cycles of the storm as to whether it's a Cat 4 when it hits land - but the SSTs in the entire NE Gulf are extremely warm.
Most of the weatherboard action seems to be at http://www.storm2k.org/ with its tropical forums, but you have to be a registered member (which I am) to get to see the Tropics Talking board (where you can drown in all the data and arguments). Eastern will let guests in to view similar talk, and it is more condensed during the summertime (but during the winter WATCH OUT for the overload during storms!)
By the way, the links at the top of this thread are great and very useful.
And I think that chart is already obsolete. I think the strength sequence should be 2-3-4 - Katrina is already a two and is rapidly intensifying.
Fortunately, the GFS is usually wrong with tropical systems.
I didn't know if you were following along....
I agree. I wouldn't discount a run at cat5 either, but those stroms are relatively rare.
Note: You can't use Firefox to load those videos .. only Explorer.
And Fidel's getting slammed ... again. Did anyone predict the storm would move this far south?
Storm2k is good in the summer. We (easternuswx.com) just got going last yr, so we are still building a summer base. Winter is a mess, as our snow lovers outnumber hurricane watchers by a good margin. The meteorologist input on easternuswx.com is easily amongst the best on the net right now.
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