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Stratfor Asks: Is Musharraf Lying to Washington or Is He Not in Control - Pakistan
South Asia Tribune / STRATFOR ^ | George Friedman and Kamran Bokhari

Posted on 08/25/2005 10:01:56 AM PDT by swarthyguy

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Jeez, if even STRATFOR is questioning Mushie, things must have become really bad. Even the Bush people can apparently tolerate only so much BS from Pakistan.

Not the Pakistanis fault, if they choose to prevaricate, and we believe them.....

1 posted on 08/25/2005 10:01:57 AM PDT by swarthyguy
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To: swarthyguy

A little from columna A, and a lot from column B.


2 posted on 08/25/2005 10:03:09 AM PDT by Alexander Rubin (Octavius - You make my heart glad building thus, as if Rome is to be eternal.)
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To: swarthyguy

If history is a guide...Id say he's lying.


3 posted on 08/25/2005 10:03:24 AM PDT by samadams2000 (Pitchforks and Lanterns..with a smiley face!)
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To: swarthyguy

ping to read later


4 posted on 08/25/2005 10:06:25 AM PDT by silverleaf (Fasten your seat belts- it's going to be a BUMPY ride.)
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To: Alexander Rubin

Bingo.


5 posted on 08/25/2005 10:07:36 AM PDT by lugsoul ("She talks and she laughs." - Tom DeLay)
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To: Dog; milestogo; ARridgerunner; Gengis Khan; Alouette

Janus Musharraf.

Since he has two faces, does he have 18 lives?


6 posted on 08/25/2005 10:07:48 AM PDT by swarthyguy
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To: swarthyguy
"Recognition within Islamabad that Pakistan's importance as a US ally likely will dissolve if bin Laden is captured or killed."

Ah. Mushie is a tease...

7 posted on 08/25/2005 10:11:43 AM PDT by lugsoul ("She talks and she laughs." - Tom DeLay)
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To: swarthyguy
We allow 500+ ISI and Pakistani military advisers helping the Taliban to by airlifted out of Afghanistan .... It is amazing that Musharraf is even still alive ..... Not in control??? Since Bush bet with Musharraf, I can only hope he is in control......
8 posted on 08/25/2005 10:12:13 AM PDT by Yasotay
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To: swarthyguy
the breaking point will come either with a misstep by Musharraf that destroys the political balance he has tried to maintain within Pakistan, or a decision by Washington that delay, obfuscation and overt obstructionism will no longer be tolerated.

We are nearing this point right now....it will be four years since we set out to kill or capture OBL and Zawahiri....this will no doubt be the last anniversary that passes without those two either dead or in US custody. It is becoming to much of a political liability ...and Bush will want it settled before he leaves office in '08..

9 posted on 08/25/2005 10:17:17 AM PDT by Dog
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To: Yasotay

>>We allow 500+ ISI and Pakistani military advisers helping the Taliban

Indian intel maintains that it was more in the thousands; entire units of the Pakistani army that had been seconded to the Taliban.

In Robin Moore's The Hunt for Bin Ladin, he describes how US SF forces, after reviewing many battle scenes where air power had devastated TalibPakiJihadi forces, were astonished to find many of the fighters in Paki Army uniforms with insignia ripped off - from miltary style sweaters, to certain equipment, and even Paki stationary and some comm equipment.


10 posted on 08/25/2005 10:17:20 AM PDT by swarthyguy
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To: Dog

>>Bush will want it settled before he leaves office in '08..

I would think so. It's Legacy time. And not having those two will be forever contrasted with the statements made in the immediate aftermath of the Attacks.


11 posted on 08/25/2005 10:18:24 AM PDT by swarthyguy
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To: Alexander Rubin

Question is, have the jihadis and sympathetic generals grown stronger in the hiatus, or weaker.

For instance, HizbTahrir is making great inroads into erstwhile secular or moderate, educated, professionals in Pakistan.


12 posted on 08/25/2005 10:20:46 AM PDT by swarthyguy
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To: lugsoul; swarthyguy
Mushie has always teased us...it is only recently that you have US officials actually admitting it in public. Note Porter Goss saying we know where OBL is...and just last week I think an unamed US official said we are not going to settle for another capture on the eve of an offical US visit.

Mushie is getting pushed to the cliffs edge...and will soon be asked to make a decision.

13 posted on 08/25/2005 10:21:18 AM PDT by Dog
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To: swarthyguy

Is Musharraf Lying to Washington or Is He Not in Control?

Yes
14 posted on 08/25/2005 10:22:12 AM PDT by COBOL2Java (Many Democrats are not weak Americans. But nearly all weak Americans are Democrats.)
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To: swarthyguy
Remember Bush saying.

"I will not leave a problem for the next President...."

He won't either.

15 posted on 08/25/2005 10:23:24 AM PDT by Dog
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To: swarthyguy

I was being "Conservative" in my numbers, I had heard between 600 - 1000. Your number does not surprise me. Is Moore's book any good?


16 posted on 08/25/2005 10:29:20 AM PDT by Yasotay
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To: Yasotay

Yes, I enjoyed it. The only comprehensive look at the successful campaign to overthrow the Talib, and the unsuccessful one to nail Osama. Perhaps a little dated now, since there are other efforts out there about that time period, specifically the one by Schoen and the one awaiting approval by the CIA, by Bernsten.

Some other reads that were useful:

AQ's Great Escape - Christopher Smucker

The Interrogators - Greg Mackey (Macky)

I also read SAAG.ORG for some, IMO, great backgrounders and updates on Pakistan and Jihad in general. Raman's archived articles are priceless.


17 posted on 08/25/2005 10:35:09 AM PDT by swarthyguy
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To: Yasotay

The airspace over Kunduz was left clear and open for 24 hours plus.

Contrary to reports here, huge Ilyushins provided by Victor Bout, and contracted to the Paki Military (even they weren't cheeky enough to use Pakistani planes, apparently, and may not have had the airlift capacity required to evacuate thru their c-130's), with numerous flights landing and extracting Paki army personnel from Kunduz at the height of the US air umbrella over Afghanistan.


18 posted on 08/25/2005 10:48:03 AM PDT by swarthyguy
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To: swarthyguy

Thanks now I'll go get the book .... I believe your statement and I can only imagine the numbers evacuted on the GROUND ..... maybe the Indian number is low.


19 posted on 08/25/2005 11:01:00 AM PDT by Yasotay
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To: swarthyguy
I agree with you about B. Raman. He is one of the best, if not the best.

Musharraf cannot be trusted. Vajpayee learned the hard way during Kargil. (But you know this already.)

20 posted on 08/25/2005 11:09:23 AM PDT by ARridgerunner
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