Posted on 08/22/2005 3:27:06 AM PDT by twinself
It is a funny cold war that have delivered themselves for a few months Moscow and Warsaw, a fight for influence which has as a theatre the new Eastern border of the European Union.
The hostilities started last winter in Ukraine, when the Polish leaders were posed as mediators between the mode of Leonid Kutschma and the democratic opposition carried out by Viktor Yushchchenko. The agreement proposed in Kiev had made it possible to avoid a scenario of catastrophe. Greeted by the Westerners, the diplomatic victory of Poland caused the anger of Moscow which accused Warsaw of interference.
Vladimir Putin obviously did not digest the Ukrainian affront. Not more than it did not digest the remarks of Polish persons in charge who qualified as "error" elimination of the president of independent Chechnya - Aslan Maskhadov, in March. Or those of the Prime Minister, Marek Belka, which had been declared, last year, "shocked and disturbed" by the muscular methods of the Russian forces at the time of the taking of hostages of the school of Beslan, whereas the majority of the European leaders had preferred to keep silent.
At the time of the ceremonies which commemorated the victory of 1945, May 9 in Moscow, the vindicatory Russian president refused to recognize the role of the Poles in the victory over Nazism, pushing the provocation futher by decorating in large pump General Jaruzelski, ex-ally of the Soviets and ladykiller of Solidarity.
The confrontation continues today, this time in Belarus, where the authoritative mode of president Alexander Lukashenko remains pledged with the Master of Kremlin. Strong after its success in Ukraine, Poland dreams today to instill, in what George W. Bush qualifies with reason as "last dictatorship in Europe", a dynamics similar to that which was expressed in Ukraine. The chief of the Polish diplomacy, Adam Rotfeld, thus known as was determined to support the Belorussian civil company while launching "as soon as possible a Belarussian independent radio in particular ". Various Polish politicians work in the same direction. Warsaw also presses its European partners to be implied more in this area perceived a long time like a "gray zone" concerned with the Russian zone of influence.
In the short run, a scenario with Ukrainian seems not very probable in Belarus. Alexander Lukashenko firmly locked his country. The opposition is little organized and the civil company remains in an embryonic state. Nevertheless, with the approach of the presidential election planned the next year, the president of Belarus seems to fear a nasty surprise whereas, for a few months, its neighbors Ukrainian and Moldavian have publicly posted their will to approach the Western camp. The important Polish minority of Belarus (400 000 people, is 4% of the population) became its "black sheep". It is used by him also as scarecrow. Lukashenko shows that it wants to foment in Belarus a new "orange revolution" and radio-controlled by the United States and, in the purest Soviet style, denounces the embassy of Poland as being "a seedbed of actions of diversion and espionage".
Since last spring, the "anti-Polish hystery" beats its full. Minsk started by refusing to recognize the new authorities of the Association of the Poles of Belarus. At the end of July, several of its persons in charge were detained. They were replaced by a more lenient team with regard to the Belarussian president. Since then, it is escalating. Warsaw called off its ambassador and, in mid-August, several Polish nationals were beaten by mysterious hooligans in Moscow.
Member of NATO since 1997 and the European Union since more than one year, strong also with the support of the American Administration, Poland has finally the means of holding head with his hereditary enemy. It also aspires to being recognized as regional power and fears a "Paris-Berlin-Moscow axis", which would be done behind its back.
Its activism in this space unstable post-Soviet, which always balances between the East and the West, is also explained by the geography - a long border of 1 200 kilometers with Russia, Belarus and Ukraine - and by a painful historical experiment - several decades spent under the Russian yoke, then Soviet. Admittedly, since the fall of the USSR, the Russian ogre does not frighten Warsaw any more. But, following the example tenor of the Polish opposition, Donald Tusk, the Poles are unanimous to think that, if "the fall of an empire lasts only a few weeks, the imperialist thought dies only after several generations".
ping!
"It also aspires to being recognized as regional power and fears a "Paris-Berlin-Moscow axis", which would be done behind its back."
Comes around a couple of times per century, huh?
Yes, historically we always could count on Paris and Berlin to support the idea of Poland being the prey of aggressive Russia.
Ping
that's why Ukraine is so important. With Ukraine independent from Russia the geopolitics of the whole Europe is totally different than in the past. let's hope Yushchenko won't screw it up.
Good point. And don't forget Iran. Some naive dorks think that Russia cares a straw for War on terror. Putin will be the first to ally with islamofascists if he thinks this would serve Russia's interests. We're gonna see Huntingtons prophecy coming true in a bit different configuration: Russia+China+Islam.
This latest Putin game of Russian-Chinese alliance is very foolish. China with its ever growing population has not forgotten the loss of Far East to the Russian Empire in 19th century. Plus, scarcely populated Siberian planes could be easily flooded with Chinese. Russian Far East already receives a steady stream of Chinese workers and traders. They are hardworking and exceptionally disciplined people. However, they are unlikely to assimilate into moribund and scarce Russian population and feel like Russian Citizens. They may some day to demand "reunification" with China. Neo Communist China is not interested in partnership with Russia or with anybody else--it's interested in domination. Putin should understand that becoming Communist Chinese vassal and possibly loosing a huge chunk of Russian territory is price not worth paying. However, I'm afraid, Putin and Kremlin establishment hates America more than they are afraid of Chinese ambitions.
Good point!
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