Posted on 08/15/2005 2:57:08 PM PDT by traumer
Oil exports to the US could stop amid growing tensions between the two countries, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has said.
He described recent US government actions as "aggressive" in a speech at a youth festival in Caracas. As a result, Venezuelan oil "instead of going to the United States, could go elsewhere," he said.
Venezuela exports about 1.3 million barrels a day to the US and is the world's fifth largest oil producer.
Tensions between the two countries have escalated since President Chavez accused the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) of spying on his government.
Washington denies the charge and has accused Caracas of failing to co-operate in the fight against drug-trafficking.
On Friday the Venezuelan government withdrew diplomatic immunity from DEA agents working in the country in response to a US decision to revoke the visas of six Venezuelan officials based in Washington.
Venezuela is an important transport route for cocaine from neighbouring Colombia, which produces 80% of the world's supply.
Any bets on how high and how fast this will make oil prices go?
Sure. Zero to none.
Granted, the owners of oil companies and their owners the insurance companies haven't allowed alternative energy sources to be brought into the market, but I think it is getting to the point where there needs to be a real scientific push to make the need for oil a thing of the past.
We are so screwed...
I swear I think Chavez goes to bed at night and cries himself to sleep that Bush won't pay him in attention and bomb him.
How so? Oil is fungible, if it goes elsewhere we'll go elsewhere too. No net loss. Big deal.
Geeeee .. what's the matter Hugo baby .. nobody paying attention to you ..?? Poor thing!
Chavez needs to go elsewhere, permanently.
And if a Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is elected and he joins the club... and decides no longer to send black sweet low sulfur crude to the USA...then what? Where?
The other place it could hurt us is in with our imports of already refined gasoline which Venezuela also exports to us.
Both crude and gasoline are fungible products, so it wouldn't affect world prices, but it would increase our transportation costs to bring both here, and we'd have to retool our refineries.
It's not an entirely empty threat.
The Mouse That Roared tells the story of the fictional European principality of Grand Fenwick. Finding itself on the wrong end of a trade dispute with the United States, and noting America's generosity in rebuilding the countries it had fought in World War II, Grand Fenwick's rulers hit upon the idea of declaring war on the U.S., losing, and then reaping a Marshall Plan-style handout.
Lets look at just the last 9 days in which gas here in Florida has gone up .20
Saudi's King Fahd dies. The man had a stroke 10 years ago and the crown Prince Abdullah has been running things since and now has the crown. If he's been running things for the last 10 years why worry about things now?
This next one is a real kicker. The threat of a Hurricane Irene to hit the offshore platforms in the Gulf of Mexico caused another spike. Why? The storm never made it past tropical storm strength, AND, never even remotely threatened LEAVING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC to cross florida and into the gulf.
They are using any and every excuse to jusify rising crude prices. If anyone thinks that this threat from Chavez won't affect thier wallet at the pump, they are kidding themselves.
AK, CA coast, FL coast, Gulf coast, NC/SC coast.
Drill now, drive later.
I have an idea 'Poor thug' may be closer to the truth. :)
OK, I'll ask my perennial question (rhetorical, of course): Why is this guy still walking around?
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Oil in fungible. If they sell their oil elsewhere, then others whose market they have taken will sell their oil here.
It's a meaningless threat, unless he has the stones to shut down production and watch his people starve.
SO9
Ray Davies was right! "Paranoia Will Destroy You..."
"Any bets on how high and how fast this will make oil prices go?"
I am not a commodities trader, only a business owner. My opinion is that crude will stay where it is at until Labor Day then cool off to $58 a barrel through 2006. Here is my logic:
1) Despite increased demand from Asia and no new refinement capabilities, their are no real market conditions
to keep prices high. Speculation can only carry it so far.
2) The American consumer and business communities will reach the point of being more efficient by reducing consumption. When that happens, historically the price dropped, even during the turbulent 1970's mid-east crises.
3) Bush will not leave office as the POTUS responsible for helping to put 2/3 of the average American in the poor house. I am not a "Bush is in cahoots with oil" thinker, but on the other hand he also did relatively nothing to slow it's propulsion to these levels. Don't tell me Bush does not have muscle to provide gas-tax break grants for states or cannot muscle refiners or Saudi Arabia for that matter. I like Bush, don't get me wrong but there are reasons even strong pubbies like me are growing irratated.
4) Despite this new tension about Iran, we will do little or nothing in the next 12-18 months about them. We'll let the Euroweenies fall on their face first so we can prove a global point and heck, it may even be worth it.
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