Posted on 08/13/2005 2:01:17 PM PDT by nickcarraway
For the first time since the residential real estate marathon began 13 years ago, parts of the country are showing signs of exhaustion. But if you rely on the experts to declare that a particular area's bubble has popped, you may have waited too long.
So how can a homeowner tell if a market is about to go bust? This may be one of those rare occasions when professionals parsing data are at a disadvantage to regular people watching the market. That's because the main driver of today's market is consumer psychology. Home prices go up as long as people expect them to go up.
When they stop believing, prices fall - and no economist in Washington can get wind of that faster than someone chatting over knockwurst at a neighborhood block party. "Economists looking at the macrodata will be the last to know," said Richard A. Brown, chief economist at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.
What you will learn from the professionals who are dutifully crunching numbers is that prices are not falling significantly in any of the hot markets, but in a dozen or so cities in the Northeast and in California, they are near the peak. In Boston, for example, the time that homes are sitting on the market has stretched to 46 days from 39 days a year ago.
An analysis of price appreciation, done for The New York Times by the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard, shows that the price appreciation in cities including New York City; Austin, Tex.; Philadelphia; and Providence, R.I., are decelerating. Appreciation in Detroit and Denver has already slowed to a crawl.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
""Austin, Tex""
Home prices there peaked in 2001 and have been falling ever since (ditto DFW). The reporter should get off his A@@ and do some actualy investigatation before writing a story.
Yes, all Freepers should depend on the NY Slimes for news, financial advise and when any bubble is breaking.
I find that hard to believe.
I don't think they "peaked" in 2001 in DFW. I think they may only be now starting to level off. Lots of building here. Whole neighborhoods being "gentrified" and lots of restoration of old "classic" houses.
I did see where Dallas home prices have been stable or falling ever since 2001. Ditto Denver though Ive read DEN's home prices hade been rising recently
Dont forget DFW's economy was hard hit by both 9-11 and Telecom bubble implosion. In 2002 DFW area had over 8% unemployment
Also just because there is home building doesnt mean prices are rising.
It is still clearly a seller's market for properly priced, desirable properties. The bubble has not popped, but the prices have stopped for now, no telling what they will do this fall or next spring.
Impossible. Interest rates are at least a point lower than they were in 2001, which drives prices up even in static markets.
that isnt true..interest rates were falling from 1990 through 1994, and yet California's home prices fell each and every year.
You'll know when your local market slows if you pay attention. You'll hear it at school, at church, at work..
(But you knew that - 'didn't need me chiming in.).
And Realtors don't try to keep all the information listed in the article secret. Just call one, tell them you are thinking of selling and ask them to get some comparables, and stop by some evening and give you their opinion.
They will show you every house that sold in your neighborhood, how long it was on the market, and the selling price.
It ain't no secret. (But you knew that.)
Everybody kept predicting the bubble would burst because they wanted to be the expert who was first to know and tell.
The baby boomers ARE getting older, and ARE having an impact on the market. They have gotten most of their kids through college, paid for a wedding or two, and now they want a home on the lake, on the beach or in the mountains.
That plus low interest rates has driven this market.
If and when there is a recession, there will be retrenchment in real estate. But in the long term, there is nothing better...not even gold. (And as your grandfather told you, "They're not making any more!)
The trend nationwide and statewide in 1990 through 1994 was down. That hasn't been the case from 2001 through 2004. Also, they've gotten ever more creative with financing, allowing lenders to stretch further.
That's pretty funny; I'm surprised houses in Detroit can sell for anything at all - I wouldn't move there at gunpoint.
That's how things generally happen in Detroit.
The only place real estate prices may have peaked in 2001 and have fallen since.....Love Canal, New York.
but your statement was home prices can never fall (impossible you said) when interest rates are falling or at least low. Well i gave an example where they did.
Austin and Dallas have had steady or slightly falling home prices since their peak in 2001.
I know it is unpopular to say here on FR that there isnt a housing bubble nationwide, but the fact is much of the country has seen home price appreciation in the mid single digits such as Atlanta. Other markets like Denver experienced falling home prices from 2001-2003 or so. Some like St Louis and Cincinatti are stagnant with only very low housing appreciation.
Check out the data for Austin:
http://recenter.tamu.edu/data/hs/hs140b.htm
Prices in 2002 were considerably higher than 2001, and have been steady or risingly slightly since then once you account for seasonal fluctuations. The volume of sales is up significantly since 2002.
Prices in Dallas are well above where they were in 2001.
http://recenter.tamu.edu/data/hs/hs200b.htm
there isnt much stability in this chart. Prices are all over the place since late 2001
looks like only in the last couple of months have home prices been rising consistently in dallas.
I know your point is that there is a nation wide bubble, but there isnt
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