Posted on 07/04/2005 7:36:30 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
/begin my translation
No Future for China's Resource Wasteful Economy
Cho Young-haeng
2005.07.04 13:06 41'
The current structure of Chinese economy, which requires consuming world's resources at an astonishing speed, will keep Chinese economy from sustaining its growth, reported Hong Kong's South China Morning Post(SCMP) on July 4. The paper pointed out that, despite impressive economic growth of China, its economic model is resource-intensive, wasteful of energy, and destructive to its environment.
The recent rate of Chinese consumption of raw materials is startling. China now has 30 million automobiles, and its oil import is the second in the world. This year, its oil consumption rate is increasing fastest in the world. It is pointed out that China is one of the reasons international oil price exceeded $60 per barrel last week.
The China's future consumption of natural resources would further increase, which is expected to pose a threat to the world economy. By 2020, China is expected to have as many automobiles as U.S. does now, and the oil import required for its automobiles would amount to 350 million tons. This is double the China's domestic oil production, and equal to the U.S. oil import.
In addition to oil, Chinese consumption of copper, nickel, aluminium, and iron ore amounts to 20% of the world total, which is 3 times the size in 1990, 7% of the world total. This is expected to double by 2010. According to the analysis of China's Engineering Institute, Chinese GDP has increased 10 times since 1949, while its mineral consumption did as much as 50 times.
The problem is that China's wasteful use of energy and natural resources has become really serious. For each dollar of manfactured products, China uses energy 3 times the world average, and 7 times the Japanese. Annual power usage of China's large public buildings is 100~300 Watts per square meter, which is 10~15 times of an ordinary household.
While N. China suffers from water shortage, in cities of S.E. China, 30% of water supply leaks, and 40% in Dalian. Many even leave the tap open after using it. Hao Xiang-lin(?), a member of the Engineering Institute, deplores, "We are the country of resource shortage and high speed growth."
Annual economic growth rate of 7% and most wasteful consumption of energy and natural resources cannot be sustained together, according to experts.
Because China cannot produce sufficient amount of necessary resources, it has to import them. China imports half of iron ore and aluminium, 1/3 of nickel and copper, and more than 40% of oil. Those shares are expected to further increase.
In the case of iron ore, the import accounted for 20% in 1990, now it is more than doubled. China's demand for iron ore takes up 29% of the world total currently. Demand for raw materials is projected to increase at a double-digit rate at least until 2010.
Chinese government policy is now in a real dilemma.
Chinese government encourages the personal ownership of a automobile to spur consumption and generate jobs. Chinese automobile manufacturers are focusing more on large automobiles to boost their profit margin. Among new models of automobile which came out last year in China, those with displacement over 2,000 cc accounted for 72%.
Such a policy is creating many problems. According to China's Environment Protection Bureau, 79% of air pollution is due to oil consumption, and 16 Chinese cities are on the list of 20 most-polluted cities in the world, which reflects the severity of the problem.
In China, for another increase of 20 automobiles, another acre of land should be paved to make roads. For 2 million more automobiles, about 40,000 hectare (100,000 acres) more of arable land would disappear.
With the current rate of growth, the oil consumption by Chinese automobiles in 2030 would be 263 million tons, 5 times the size in 2000. Last year, China's crude oil import is 120 million tons, 34.8% increase over 2003, and the imported oil accounted for more than 40% of domestic consumption. Chinese officials predict that oil import would increase to 180~200 million tons by 2010, which would account for more than half of the total demand.
Experts are concerned that, due to the lack of strategic oil reserve, China has to purchase crude oil at a spot market, which means that China would be a biggest casualty of high oil price, and in a vicious cycle, the plan to save strategic reserve is further delayed.
Others argue that it is against the social justice that enormous amount of resources are squandered for a small number of people owning automobiles, which produce exhaust gas, and eat up precious land in cities as parking lots, gas stations, and automobile display lots.
/end my translation
That means a major conflict is looming in not-so-distant future. We are approaching a dangerous time.
Ping!
It will crash badly anyway, for the resources are not unlimited, and the peak production of several is already in sight.
If you have a wasteful economy then you have a uncompetitive economy. The Chinese are still managing to be competitive at the moment but they will one day hit a glass ceiling imposed by their own internal constraints (lack of freedom, over-prescriptive trade laws etc). As their internal costs equalise (with India, South America and other competitors) we will see a great change in China - I hope, for the better. My guess is that there's too much real money being made over there for some year-zero Klepto-Marxist to take over when the riots get too bad.
Or we can drill more oil wells here in the U.S. (which sits under and ocean of oil) and sell China our own oil. But then again, most people do not want a peaceful solution.
Or we can drill more oil wells here in the U.S. Mainland (which sits under an ocean of oil) and sell China our own oil. But then again, most people do not want a peaceful solution.
Another Asian country has to look outside its borders for the neccesary resources to continue its drive to be a world/regional power.
Japan in the 1930s had the same outlook...
China will soon 'T A K E O V A'
That would be too simple. It seems that the liberals are always stirring things up and getting us into fights, then step back when we have to clean it up and then it is always the Republicans fault.
Do a good job and they will lie about how many good things have really happened but then there was NO PLAN.
You don't get the wonderful accoplishments like these without a plan.
But really when you come down to it, capitalism is really the best way for both to be treated "fairly".
We should drill our own wells in America and Alaska for sure. Why buy it for its resources and then not use them when the technology is right and America needs it.
We must have our own resources ready to tap into if China did get to that point.
And where are the enviormentalists who really care about the land????
why not stop the "blame America 1st" and go for the worst in their treatment of the land and then they can work their way up to US.
As you are pointing out, the important thing is not how the Americans see these issues how how the Chinese do.
The Chinese are building a major oil project in Brazil, I read, and will lose heavily unless oil is more than $100 a barrel when this project comes on line. Lots of really big money bets being made on high oil prices.
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